This time, there would be no pitch invasion at Goodison Park.
On the field, Everton were celebrating securing Premier League survival again, in the most challenging of circumstances — bouncing back from two points deductions (totalling eight) and numerous off-field problems — but achieving it with three games to spare meant those celebrations were relatively muted compared to what came before.
Advertisement
While this season of chaos has brought so many twists and turns that more drama can never be ruled out, they are now 11 points clear of third-bottom Luton Town with two games to play.
This was not the unbridled ecstasy of the 3-2 comeback win over Crystal Palace two years earlier, or the tempered, conflicting emotions of the final-day victory over Bournemouth last season that saw Everton stay up by the skin of their teeth after civil war had threatened to engulf the club.
The reality on this occasion was far more prosaic, at least as far as avoiding late-season nerves was concerned. Three home wins in the space of a week, with a 2-0 Merseyside derby win sandwiched in the middle, meant that Everton avoided another agonising end to a campaign — on the pitch. That despite the deductions, financial woes, a stalled takeover bid and existential concern over the future of the club.
There have been so many issues and many hurdles to overcome that Sean Dyche, the manager who defied the odds to lead Burnley into Europe in his previous job, described keeping the club up this season as the “biggest” achievement of his managerial career.
Dyche recently likened managing Everton in this turbulent period to “juggling sand” — an apt metaphor. This was not a situation totally in their hands, nor one that could be easily tamed.
The repeated blows, which punctuated the season, took their toll on morale. In this draining, turbulent campaign, even he showed signs of wear. At various points, there were moments when those close to the squad wondered whether the energy was there to pick themselves up and go again.
There are still dark clouds looming, the seemingly never-ending prospective takeover by 777 Partners thrown into yet further doubt with an American lawsuit lodged against the Miami-based investment firm for millions in alleged fraud.
That could pave the way for a bleak future off the pitch but on it, at least this is a club, a manager and a group of players with a keen survival instinct, as they have shown again.
Even a couple of weeks ago, this relative breathing space did not appear to be on the cards.
The 6-0 defeat away to Chelsea in mid-April was a nadir, an evening in which Dyche’s team delivered comfortably their worst performance of the season and questions were raised over the unity in the dressing room and the manager’s ability to get them out of the mire.
Dyche bemoaned a lack of competitive edge, having hauled off his central midfielders Amadou Onana and James Garner for what he saw as their inability to make challenges.
Failings, though, were widespread. Everton pressed high and were torn apart. Harsh words were exchanged at half-time, when Dyche laid into his players, after the final whistle and again at the training ground in the days that followed.
Advertisement
Dyche told the squad that he would not allow them to throw him under the bus. The message was “fit in or don’t”, as vice-captain James Tarkowski would describe it. Those not deemed to be pulling their weight were relegated to the bench, with players more committed to the cause, such as Idrissa Gueye, taking their place.
Some of those inside the club had felt that Everton had been sleepwalking towards a result like the Chelsea game, with performances having steadily slipped since the turn of the year. Although unpalatable at the time, the belief now is that a shock of that magnitude was needed to force a reset.
There had also been a sense in the dressing room that Everton needed to get back to basics and had moved too far away from the principles that brought success earlier in the season.
A change in tactical approach was agreed after conversations between Dyche, his staff and senior players. Their 4-4-1-1 became more of a 4-5-1, with a flatter midfield. Out of possession, they were more coy, often waiting for their moment to jump out of shape and steal the ball.
Everton’s possession-winning line — defined by Opta as ‘the average height of where a team wins back possession in a game’ — dropped from 44 metres from goal against Chelsea to 27 metres in the Merseyside derby as they reverted to pragmatism.
Dyche and his staff scrutinised the working week, training sessions and how feedback was delivered. His decision to wear a tracksuit instead of a suit for the first time in his career has been the subject of much hilarity but was viewed internally as his small way of indicating that he too was prepared to change.
“I’ve stuck to my beliefs and messages to the players, and the consistency of them,” Dyche tells The Athletic. “With that, we still had to look at it and go, ‘Right, what can we change?’.
Advertisement
“So the training schedule, analysis. Even simple stuff, like naming the team a bit later. And then the big talking point was my outfit. Trust me, that wasn’t a big drama but it caused one. There were a lot of things we tweaked and we asked the players to respond to it, which they did.
“There have been other periods in my career where we’ve just stuck to task. The hardest thing in football management, even more so now with the amount of media, is that when everyone is telling you to do something, what about doing nothing?
“On this occasion, there were things that needed changing. Sometimes, over a season that consistency will pay you back but it was my decision to start changing things, with the staff’s agreement, and it’s paid us back.
“I told the players that I was at Burnley for nearly 10 years and I had three meetings that felt touch and go. I’ve had four here in a year and a bit, so I asked how we connect in a way that is beyond that. We’ve fed back a couple of different ways during my time here and that’s what we’ve felt is necessary. We’ve had to keep moulding it and we’ve seen signs of progress.”
Key players Tarkowski and Dominic Calvert-Lewin played through injury and sickness to help the cause. Dwight McNeil, meanwhile, overcame the “toughest year” in his life, as he put it — his partner Megan underwent surgery in December — to make key contributions at important moments.
“The players knew the future of the club was at stake and showed how much they care,” said one figure close to the dressing room, speaking anonymously to protect relationships.
The results were emphatic and took nearly everyone by surprise.
There is a belief at Everton that Dyche has not had the credit he deserves for steering the club through choppy waters.
Staff were quick to point out that after the 1-0 win over Brentford, the side would have been level on points with Brighton & Hove Albion but for their points deductions — a fact that has largely been neglected despite another summer of austerity that saw them spend only an initial £2million ($2.5m) on Arnaut Danjuma’s loan fee and sell key assets. A 26-point gap between the teams has been completely eroded in the space of a season.
Advertisement
Everton’s struggles with the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) left a lasting mark on their season, colouring the picture from October onwards.
Without their points deductions, there is almost certainly no relegation battle. After beating Crystal Palace 3-2 at Selhurst Park in November, Dyche’s side were eight points clear of the drop and given a 3.5 per cent chance of relegation by Opta. When the initial 10-point deduction hit, that jeopardy rose immediately to 34 per cent.
Despite witnessing an initial positive spike in form, Dyche and others at the club put the subsequent run of poor results between December and April down, in part, to off-field issues.
Perhaps this gives them, and him, too much of an excuse for poor performances, but sources close to the dressing room have noted how free time away from training was often spent worrying about deductions and financial security.
Games that would have been otherwise innocuous suddenly mattered, and it was difficult for anyone to grasp what was or wasn’t a good result in the circumstances. Tension seeped into Everton’s play. The manager and the players did not always seem to have answers. Staff, meanwhile, got to the point where they would head into work on Monday expecting the next knock.
Inside the club, there remains anger and a sense of injustice at how they feel the league has treated them. Sanctions are felt to have been disproportionate and heavy-handed compared to the treatment of other clubs, including Nottingham Forest who received a smaller deduction for an overspend nearly double that of Everton’s.
Time has shown Everton’s first commission, and indeed the league’s recommendation for a 12-point deduction, to have been out of kilter. It has led to criticism of an overly officious approach. Some critics have likened PSR — and the way it is now being enforced by the league — to forcing clubs into something akin to a death spiral.
That argument goes that overly punitive sanctions, including substantial points deductions, push teams down the table and make it tougher to find a way out. With each Premier League place worth around £3million, Everton’s ability to increase revenues through their league position will take a hit, hindering their attempts at future compliance.
Advertisement
The club have ended up in a situation where they have had to sell key assets including Richarlison, Anthony Gordon and Alex Iwobi in recent years in a forlorn attempt at compliance, harming performances on the pitch and financial results.
The response to the 10-point deduction imposed in October was one of shock that quickly turned to rage. There was much surprise when Forest’s tariff for a much bigger breach in 2022-23 was 40 per cent that of Everton’s initial deduction for 2021-22.
In a statement after Everton’s second points deduction was handed down in early April, the Premier League again explained its position, saying: “The independent commission reaffirmed the principle that any breach of the PSRs is significant and justifies, indeed requires, a sporting sanction.”
Yet the perceived sense of injustice allowed Dyche, his players and the fanbase to tap into an ‘Everton-against-the-world’ mentality and led to a spike in results on the pitch. Goodison united against a common enemy, creating a unity that had been lacking at times in the previous season.
By January, though, results and performances had dropped considerably, with Dyche and his players admitting later in the season that they had been affected by off-field issues out of their control. Those close to the squad pointed to the cumulative strain of three successive relegation battles and the surprise factor of being forced into another stressful situation almost overnight.
Still, a run of one win in 14 between late December and April brought questions over Dyche’s approach, a perceived lack of a Plan B and the style of play.
The problem for managers like him is that pragmatic football is tolerated as long as the results are good. His response has been that winning matters more than style and here there was only one gig in town: keeping Everton up. On that score, he has been proven right.
Advertisement
There were times when he did not always appear to have the answers or the will to try something different. Instead, he retained faith that his methods would lead to a revival. That was backed up by internal data that showed Everton performing close to a European standard in certain underlying metrics, including expected goals (xG). In the table below, we can see how Everton’s xG difference per game (essentially, the quality of the chances they create measured against those they concede) suggests they could have been far higher in the actual Premier League table.
Similarly, Everton’s threadbare hierarchy kept their nerve in the face of poor results. One win in 14 would have put Dyche at risk at other stages of Farhad Moshiri’s tenure as owner, but the Anglo-Iranian has effectively checked out and money is in perilously short supply. With loans from 777 Partners used for working capital, it was doubtful that the finance was even in place for a change.
There are those at the club who view the former Burnley manager as a shrewd operator, experienced in navigating relegation battles and stabilising on a threadbare budget. It has been said on more than one occasion privately that Everton would have been looking for a figure like Dyche at this late stage of the season if they had wanted a change. And if the worst happened, he had experience of bringing sides up.
Everton’s biggest problem throughout the season has been their profligacy. They are the league’s most wasteful side based on xG and have scored the fewest goals from open play. Calvert-Lewin has scored five goals fewer than his xG suggests he should have — the biggest single underperformer in the league — while Beto (almost four down on his) is in the top five for underperformance. Staff made closing the gap between expectation and reality a priority, but there is still much work to do.
In the absence of a fully functional attack, Everton have relied on their defensive solidity.
Only Liverpool and Arsenal have conceded fewer open-play goals. Only Arsenal’s David Raya has more clean sheets than Jordan Pickford. Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitalii Mykolenko have taken great strides, while Tarkowski is viewed internally as one of the club’s best bits of business for some time having arrived on a free transfer in the summer of 2022.
Club captain Seamus Coleman, Pickford and Ashley Young have been heralded for their influence behind the scenes, particularly in setting standards and reinforcing what it means during the run-in.
Advertisement
“They (the senior players) have been around it longer and have a clearer view,” Dyche says. “Sometimes, young players might question why we’re changing things. Youngy, Seamus, Tarky and Jordan. Gana with his experience. They are important. These guys get it and rub off on the younger players.
“It (the noise) is a constant at Everton. Here the noise tends to get more rowdy a bit quicker, but that’s because of the club and the size of the expectation. I’m trying to manage that expectation because the finances aren’t where they were three or four years ago. But this is the reality of being the manager at Everton Football Club.”
Pickford’s ability to keep clean sheets is backed up by the underlying numbers too. Using expected goals on target (xGOT, which provides a modified value of an on-target shot after the player shoots), we can see (below) how Pickford has prevented about four or five goals more than would be expected from an average goalkeeper.
Set pieces have been a concerted strength, with only Arsenal having scored more in this area than Dyche’s side (who also have the best xG from set pieces in the league).
Dyche has praised assistant manager Ian Woan and coach Steve Stone for their work on the training ground, while analysts such as Alex Scanlon have been credited for their ability to identify opposition weaknesses. The medical and sports science teams have made gains too, with player availability said to have been around 90 per cent.
Ask anyone at the club and they would tell you hauling Everton over the line has been a true team effort, one with many architects.
Everton’s players were given a couple of days off after their exploits, returning to training on Wednesday before the trip to Luton. Not long ago, that game had been earmarked as a proverbial six-pointer.
The immediate aim after securing survival was to hit the 50-point mark (without deductions), which would be seen as a significant milestone given recent history.
Advertisement
But uncertainty lingers. What happens beyond this season is unclear for pretty much everyone. Dyche and director of footballer Kevin Thelwell have one year remaining on their deals. Coleman, Young and Gueye are among those out of contract this summer, with Jack Harrison and Danjuma’s loan deals set to expire.
Nobody knows what comes next. “This job isn’t what it was when it got pitched to me,” Dyche said after the win over Brentford. That sentiment will undoubtedly be shared by others in the dressing room too.
“The reason it’s my best season as a manager is because you don’t even know the half of it. Some of it is private, some of it is best kept away.
“There is a long way to go for this club to get back to where it should be. The difference between thinking about where this club is and getting there is huge. Everton have become an easy story — the whipping boys of the Premier League. Now we are beginning to change it. Let someone else have the negativity.”
That would be a decent starting point for a club that has lived too long in a state of chaos.
(Top photo: Dyche, Calvert-Lewin and Branthwaite have been central to results on the pitch. Getty Images)
