Gamweek 37 is a huge week for Fantasy Premier League managers, with three extra fixtures making it the final double gameweek of the season.
The penultimate weekend of the 2023-24 campaign, where six teams play twice, offers the final golden opportunity to gain a big jump in overall rank, where mini leagues can be won or lost.
Selecting the right captain will be one of the most important decisions fantasy managers will make, so who are the best picks and how should our perspective of risk change depending on whether we are chasing or leading in our mini leagues?
Shield vs Sword
In FPL, aside from the chips, captaincy provides the biggest variance in the game and getting it right can make or break your gameweek.
The advice in the early phases of the season is to play it safe with captaincy and opt for the likely most-captained player to maintain pace with the pack.
When we reach the business end of the season, our view of captain picks should be more dynamic and intrinsically linked to overall progress in the game.
Team | Fixture One | Fixture Two |
|---|---|---|
Man. United (a) | ||
Liverpool (h) | ||
Brentford (h) | ||
Bournemouth (a) | ||
Newcastle (a) | Chelsea (h) | |
Tottenham (a) | ||
N. Forest (a) | Brighton (a) | |
Wolves (a) | ||
Sheffield Utd (h) | ||
Man. City (h) | ||
Aston Villa (a) | ||
West Ham (a) | ||
Fulham (a) | Tottenham (a) | |
Arsenal (h) | Newcastle (h) | |
Brighton (h) | Man. United (a) | |
Chelsea (h) | ||
Everton (a) | ||
Burnley (h) | Man. City (h) | |
Luton (h) | ||
C. Palace (h) |
For those managers content with their overall rank or ahead in the mini leagues, sticking with the most popular captain as a ‘shield’ pick is an excellent strategy.
Conversely, for those managers pushing to improve their overall rank or chasing down mini-league leaders, going with a differential captain as a ‘sword’ selection is important.
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Referencing current polls across popular fantasy football websites, it’s perhaps unsurprising that the option to captain Erling Haaland (£14.2m) leads with around 70 per cent of the vote.
This is a similar captaincy weighting to Gameweek 36, where Haaland’s effective ownership was at 176.1 per cent among the Top 10k-ranked managers going into the gameweek. (Effective ownership is the percentage of teams in which a player starts. If a player is captained, they’re counted twice and if they’re triple captained, they’re counted three times.)
However, at my own rank of 350,000 overall, Haaland’s ownership was just 116.7 per cent, and so backing his four-goal haul against Wolves became differential.
In the end, 4,144,198 managers benefited from backing him for his 21-point score but all of the top five most-captained players delivered attacking returns to cushion the blow.
Manchester City still have to get results on the board to remain in control in their quest for another Premier League title. The big risk in any City side is rotation but having failed to progress to the Champions League semi-finals, they’ve got another free midweek ahead of their trip to Fulham.
Fresh legs certainly helped Haaland against Wolves and he’s now delivered goal involvements in his last four starts in the Premier League.
He produced a 20-point haul in the reverse fixture against Fulham earlier this season, netting three goals and one assist. He also notched two assists when he faced Spurs in Gameweek 14.
In simple terms, if you want to protect a lead, back Haaland for the armband — but consider alternative options if you are chasing.
The exception to this rule would be if you have the Triple Captain chip still to play, which will be differential in itself. Of the Top 10k-ranked managers, 97.76 per cent have used it already.
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In this scenario, it then becomes viable to put the chip on Haaland and gain his points scored on top of those who have simply given him the armband.
I’ve got the chip active this week and I’m doing my best not to overthink it, but Haaland has 25 goals this season and is leading the Premier League Golden Boot race.
Best Captain Picks
For those managers needing to back someone else against Haaland, there are a wealth of alternative options to consider for the double gameweek.
I am quite tempted by his City team-mate Kevin De Bruyne (£10.5m), who could benefit from a pair of away games. He has 10 goal involvements from eight away appearances this season.
De Bruyne has produced a goal or an assist in every away game he has started and is involved in set pieces, sitting top for big chances created since the international break with eight.
I distinctly remember FPL Double Gameweek 36 of the 2021-22 season, where he produced a monster 30-point haul, with four goals and one assist.
Cole Palmer (£6.2m) is another name in the frame as the highest-scoring player in the game this season, with a staggering 7.2 points per match, ahead of Haaland on 7.1 points.
The big concern with Palmer is that Chelsea’s two fixtures come away from home. He has been more potent at Stamford Bridge, with 59 per cent of his attacking returns coming at home.
Palmer has the most double-digit hauls this season, with three of those coming since the March international break. Chelsea have also received the most penalties this season with 12. Palmer has scored nine of them.
This table of top 10 players ranked by predicted points for Double Gameweek 37 is taken from Fantasy Football Hub.
| Player | Team | Predicted points |
|---|---|---|
Erling Haaland | Man. City | 15.5 |
Heung-min Son | Tottenham | 13.1 |
Alexander Isak | Newcastle | 12.3 |
Phil Foden | Man. City | 11.8 |
Kevin De Bruyne | Man. City | 11.3 |
Cole Palmer | Chelsea | 10.9 |
Nicolas Jackson | Chelsea | 10 |
Brennan Johnson | Tottenham | 10 |
Anthony Gordon | Newcastle | 9.9 |
Alejandro Garnacho | Man. United | 9.9 |
Spurs midfielder Son Heung-min (£9.9m) continues to rank highly in predictive models.
He has scored in consecutive games and is one of six players to score over 200 fantasy points this season — although we could see him forced wide instead of playing more centrally as a striker, with Richarlison back to full fitness.
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It’s worth noting that Son prospered in each of these reverse fixtures, with a hat-trick against Burnley back in Gameweek 4 and a goal and an assist in the 3-3 draw against Manchester City in Gameweek 14.
Alexander Isak (£8.4m) takes third spot in this predictive model, with his recent form a key consideration. He has scored eight goals and contributed two assists in seven appearances since the international break.
Any doubts over his positioning given Callum Wilson’s return from injury have been quashed, with the pair starting together up top against Burnley.
Isak is now up to 20 goals for the season, with an outside chance for the Golden Boot. With this in mind, he may remain on penalties, despite failing to convert against Burnley last time out.
Predictive models are favouring Phil Foden (£8.4m) from Manchester City over De Bruyne as an alternative to Haaland, despite a lack of minutes in recent games.
He’s put in the performances when on the pitch, with five goals and one assist from four starts since the international break. His illness and fitness problems seem to be behind him now, with Foden benefiting from the recent space in the scheduling.
We have a wealth of options to consider as alternatives to the template pick of Haaland, with De Bruyne and Son my preferred selections given their premium status.
(Top photos: left to right, Alexander Isak, Erling Haaland and Son Heung-min; Getty Images)
