A 2-0 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion on Sunday meant Manchester United’s 2023-24 Premier League campaign ended on a positive note, but the season’s statistics make for disappointing reading. Erik ten Hag’s men finished eighth, their lowest league position and with their second-worst points total of the Premier League era. They end a top-flight season with a negative goal difference for the first time since 1989-90.
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If United are to salvage anything of note from this campaign, it will have to come in their one remaining challenge. The FA Cup final against Manchester City on May 25 presents not only a chance of winning silverware but an opportunity to qualify for Europe. United will be in the Europa League if they are victorious over Pep Guardiola’s side at Wembley, a difficult task that will call upon the collective talents of everyone on the red side of Manchester.
Across two seasons at United, Ten Hag has experimented with a number of tactical systems in the derby. In a 6-3 defeat at the Etihad Stadium in October 2022, United tried to play possession-based football and match their rivals, only to come unstuck because of their inability to track City’s midfield runners. United’s 2-1 win in January 2023 was aided by a favourable offside decision, but also a more defensively diligent display, moving Bruno Fernandes to the right wing and looking to contain and counter City’s best players.
Both defeats in the fixture this season can be chalked up to United missing their better attacking opportunities and being too slow to react to City. Ten Hag will need something new for Wembley; did Sunday’s 2-0 victory at the Amex Stadium give any clues as to what it will be?
Yes, and no.
Ten Hag continued with the 4-2-2-2 shape he trialled in the 3-2 victory over Newcastle United. However, what proved competent at Old Trafford was less convincing against Roberto De Zerbi’s side. In the first half, Fernandes and Scott McTominay toiled as split strikers, while Sofyan Amrabat dawdled in and out of possession. What few promising passes United produced came from Kobbie Mainoo working in combination with Amad Diallo — the duo appear to have forged a fruitful relationship.
“In the first half we were not 100 per cent in control,” said Ten Hag. “At half-time we made some changes and the second half was much better — the defending, organisation and we got more press on the ball. It was more effective, so in possession we combatted the ball and from there we made movements in behind.
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“Before half-time, in the first stage we lost the ball and then we didn’t have movements in behind because when you lose the ball, the second stage is never coming.”
The second stage the Dutchman speaks of is his team’s counter-press. For much of 2023-24 United have been too slow to react when losing the ball. Couple this with their poor rest defence (the positioning of the team when they have committed bodies forward to attack) and United have been a side that rushes chin-first into counter-attacking battles, getting knocked out with the most direct punches opposition teams can throw.
The 4-2-2-2 offers some protection against that. In their two most recent fixtures, United have defended with more bodies chasing after loose balls in central midfield. The return of Lisandro Martinez (who played 59 minutes on Sunday) and the late introduction of Raphael Varane (who played for 21 minutes) gives Ten Hag what he termed as a “luxury problem” in defence. The United manager admits he will “probably need more than two (fit centre-backs) next week” but, after a season alternating between 15 different partnerships in that position (the most common in 2023-24 was between Jonny Evans and Harry Maguire), he might be able to field a strong — and complementary — duo at Wembley.
The ability to field specialised centre-backs in the FA Cup final could free up Casemiro to return to his favoured position in defensive midfield. It has been a Premier League campaign to forget for the 32-year-old Brazilian, but he still retains the faith of his manager, who values his professionalism. Casemiro might not be the defensive shield he was last season, but he remains a potent aerial presence on set pieces (both defending and attacking). His long passing also provides a tool for launching United’s most dangerous attacks; it was his ball over the top for Diogo Dalot that led to the opening goal at the Amex.
Dalot’s development from a competent jack-of-all-trades into an adept multi-faceted full-back is also noteworthy. In a season during which United have played so many games without a specialised left-back, the Portugal international has made the right-back position his own when he eventually returns to it.
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The 4-2-2-2 is not without its problems, however. What is gained by having a sturdier central midfield is (partially) lost in wider areas. On the right, Amad has made a case to start at Wembley, cutting inside and combining with the likes of Mainoo and Fernandes. On the left, Alejandro Garnacho has found things trickier. The relentless runner who tried his best to carry his team’s attack through a difficult winter period has looked leggier in the spring. Still only 19, Garnacho has developed into an impressive Premier League forward this season. If he can find a calmer final ball when attacking central areas he will be a dangerous player in the years to come.
The alternative option comes in reverting to the 4-2-3-1 that Ten Hag has typically favoured across his managerial career. Rasmus Hojlund’s goal in the 88th minute against Brighton served as a reminder of how threatening United can be when they play with a genuine No 9 up front. The Danish striker’s goal — his 10th of the Premier League season and his second in as many games — will be pleasing to his manager. Second-half cameos from Christian Eriksen, Marcus Rashford and Evans indicate there will be multiple options for multiple positions ahead of the FA Cup final.
A possible starting line-up of Andre Onana, Dalot, Martinez, Varane, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Casemiro, Mainoo, Garnacho, Fernandes, Amad and Hojlund would make them into interesting counter-attacking underdogs against City. United are most dangerous when they counter-press with urgency and feed in their speediest forwards once they regain the ball. The formation in the FA Cup final is less important than the application.
“I think both formations can be a success because, as we know, we can play the setup in the Eithad where we were a threat, I think, with movement in behind,” said Ten Hag. The United manager has spent the season troubled with a limited amount of solutions to an ever-growing list of problems, but he looks to have a decent set of ingredients to cook up a surprise on May 25.
(Top photo: Michael Steele/Getty Images)
