Twins MLB trade deadline primer: 3 early storylines to watch

We’re seven weeks from the July 30 trade deadline, which means it’s time to start thinking about how the Minnesota Twins will approach MLB’s midseason market as the leaguewide rumors begin swirling.

Here are three early Twins storylines to watch as the deadline nears.

Are the Twins buyers or sellers?

There’s a segment of most teams’ fan bases, in every sport, always pushing for a rebuild under the misguided notion it will lead to an unbeatable super roster destined for future championships. In reality, several Twins rebuilds have produced no such thing and “non-super rosters” make playoff runs each October, including the then-flawed-but-now-legendary 1987 and 1991 Twins.

There’s no more dependable “secret” to MLB playoff success than making the playoffs in the first place, and teams with a realistic shot to participate in October — also known as contenders — should almost always be buyers and almost never be sellers. Whatever you think of the Twins at this precise moment, they undeniably have a realistic path to the playoffs.

It’s so beautiful. 😍#WeBelieveinTC pic.twitter.com/nizbsf9xzm

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) October 4, 2023

FanGraphs’ projections assign the Twins a 61 percent chance to make the playoffs, including 21 percent to win the American League Central and 15 percent to get a first-round bye. Baseball Prospectus projects the Twins at 65 percent to make the playoffs, while Baseball Reference gives them a 71 percent chance. Nothing is guaranteed, but those are encouraging odds.

In fact, if the regular season ended now, the Twins would be playoff bound as a wild-card team. They’d be headed to Seattle for a best-of-three series against the Mariners, who have won exactly as many playoff series as the Twins over the past 20 years. Both of last season’s World Series participants were wild-card teams that started with best-of-three series on the road.

Contenders should be trying to contend. That’s the point of this whole thing, after all, and you can’t win if you don’t play. In the Twins’ case, there’s room to debate whether they’d be better off tinkering on the margins of the roster with smaller moves or making a bigger, riskier splash. But as of today, they should plan to be buyers.

What are the Twins’ biggest needs?

It’s clear the Twins’ lineup requires a boost, but how much hitting help they need, and where they need it, depends largely on their faith in Triple-A bats like Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner and Austin Martin emerging (or re-emerging) as second-half assets. Beyond that, would they be looking to displace 26-year-old Alex Kirilloff if he continues to struggle?

Relative to MLB-wide averages, second base (85 OPS+), designated hitter (85 OPS+) and first base (90 OPS+) have been the Twins’ least-productive positions. However, they have no shortage of internal second base options in Willi Castro, Lee, Julien and Martin, making a big trade illogical. And the return of Royce Lewis to third base moves Jose Miranda to the 1B/DH mix.

Based on need, fit and upside, adding one star-caliber slugger could make a huge impact. And because the big bat could play first base, left field or even DH if necessary, the Twins can target hitters with minimal regard for their glove. “Best bat available” may include Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alex Bregman, Josh Bell, Christian Walker, Taylor Ward and J.D. Martinez.

Pete Alonso goes to the second deck for his 43rd home run! pic.twitter.com/n4ztVPe8EJ

— SNY (@SNYtv) September 9, 2023

As always, the Twins could use another front-line starter. Joe Ryan needs to avoid another second-half fade, but he’s pitched well enough for the Twins to think he can join Pablo López in a playoff rotation. Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack have not stepped up as consistently as hoped, and it would be optimistic to count on rookie Simeon Woods Richardson starting games in October.

There’s probably never been a contending team that couldn’t use another late-inning bullpen option, and the Twins are no different. Relief help would be less of a priority if they could count on a healthy Brock Stewart in a high-leverage trio with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, but he’s been injured since early May. Can they trust Jorge Alcala? Steven Okert? Louie Varland?

With the caveat that everything can change in six weeks, the Twins’ biggest deadline priorities seemingly should be:

1. Front-line starting pitcher
2. Middle-of-the-lineup hitter
3. Setup-caliber relief pitcher

And that’s also likely the same order of the cost — in terms of both prospect capital and money — involved in addressing their needs. Front-line starters are always in short supply and carry huge price tags, whereas good bats without defensive value and solid setup men frequently get moved for relatively modest returns at the deadline.

Will the Twins take on salary?

Ownership slashing payroll by $30 million handcuffed the front office and led to a low-wattage offseason in which the Twins’ most expensive addition was 38-year-old Carlos Santana for $5.25 million. Since then, the television situation has gotten even worse and attendance is down compared to this point last season despite Twins officials projecting substantial growth.

Contending teams should be looking to address weaknesses and add talent at the deadline, but that usually requires having owners willing to increase payroll, and the Pohlads have earned every ounce of doubt on that front. If ownership wasn’t willing to spend this offseason and their revenue outlook has worsened since, it’s hardly safe to assume they’ll spend more now.

If the Twins’ self-imposed payroll restrictions remain in place, it could limit trade options in several ways. If they only pursue players with low salaries, that rules out many of the best veterans. If they require selling teams to eat money, that means adding extra prospect capital to offers. If they insist on balancing salary in deals, sending out similarly costly players is needed.

Any of those scenarios would involve compromised decision-making. There is, however, one factor in the Twins’ favor: By the trade deadline, players will have already been paid roughly two-thirds of their 2024 salaries. As an example, Alonso has a $20.5 million salary this year, but the New York Mets slugger will be owed “only” $7.1 million after the deadline.

It’s unfortunate, and frankly sort of pathetic, that increasing payroll at the deadline is even a question for a contending team that should be looking to build off its first playoff success in two decades. But until proven otherwise, that’s the skepticism created by cost-cutting owners, and the added degree of difficulty the Twins front office may face between now and July 30.

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(Photo of Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey: David Berding / Getty Images)