Blue Jays trade deadline primer: 3 early storylines to watch

TORONTO — As MLB’s trade deadline approaches in a little more than six weeks, the Toronto Blue Jays may find themselves in uncharted territory.

For the past three seasons, as the Blue Jays invested unprecedented payroll into the team, they have been clear buyers at the deadline. Some of their noteworthy acquisitions over the years included José Berríos from the Minnesota Twins, Whit Merrifield from the Kansas City Royals and Jordan Hicks from the St. Louis Cardinals.

Before that, the Blue Jays were clear sellers in the summers of 2018 and 2019 as they tried to rebuild their team around their young core that included Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette — shipping out established players like J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman and Josh Donaldson (who technically was dealt at the now-defunct waiver wire deadline).

This year, as the Blue Jays are mired in an underwhelming season with a 33-35 record after their 5-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday, they find themselves in the murky middle. They haven’t played well enough to be an obvious buyer or poorly enough to be an obvious seller. They’ve been mediocre, but they’re still only three games back of the third wild-card spot and a hot streak away from being firmly back in contention.

Depending on how the Blue Jays fare over the next month when their schedule gets noticeably more difficult with series against the Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, we should get a clearer picture of whether the Blue Jays will be in a position to buy, sell or straddle the line of doing both when July 30 comes along.

Let’s consider those three paths as we explore storylines to look ahead to.

If they sell: Will the team move either Guerrero or Bichette?

If the Blue Jays fall out of the playoff race and decide to sell, they have plenty of attractive impending free agents they could move.

Left-hander starter Yusei Kikuchi is having a career-best season, as is reliever Yimi García. Contending teams are always interested in acquiring both starting and relief pitching at the deadline. The Blue Jays would have considerable leverage if they were potentially dangling two of the best arms.

Position player-wise, the Blue Jays could choose to move Kevin Kiermaier or Justin Turner, who are both on one-year deals, if a contender had interest in acquiring those veterans. Homegrown catcher Danny Jansen is also a free agent following the season and has been a reliable power bat for Toronto when he’s been healthy.

But if the Blue Jays are truly embracing the selling position, the big question will be whether or not they decide to move Guerrero and/or Bichette, which would net them the biggest return. The Blue Jays haven’t been able to sign either of their young stars to long-term deals and now both have one year of team control remaining before they are scheduled to be free agents after the 2025 season.

Could the Blue Jays part with Bichette? (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden recently wrote that GM Ross Atkins isn’t interested in trading either of them and “one rival executive believes a deadline trade involving either one will only happen if Atkins is replaced.”

At this point, with fewer than 50 days until the deadline, it doesn’t seem as though a GM change in Toronto is imminent, but if the Blue Jays are truly punting on the season, they have to listen to offers for Guerrero and Bichette.

However, even if the Blue Jays consider the 2024 season a wash, they don’t have to decide to give up on competing in 2025 yet, when they’ll still have a rotation led by Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt. Moving on from Guerrero and Bichette now, when they still have a year-plus of control, would net a bigger return but it would also mark the end of this window of contention. Does the current front office want to shut it without one more go at contending with a group they’ve invested in so heavily? There is always the option of trying once more with this core and if things fall apart in 2025, then Guerrero and Bichette could be moved at next year’s deadline.

If they buy: Can they find a bat to ignite their muted offence?

If the Blue Jays manage to move up into a wild-card position or stay within reasonable reach of one, they may decide to go all-in at the deadline.

The most obvious need will be addressing their below-average offence. After Wednesday’s game, the Blue Jays are tied for 24th in runs scored and are averaging 3.9 runs per game. For the offence to significantly improve, it’ll take getting more from Bichette, George Springer and Turner. But the Blue Jays could inject some life into the lineup with an acquisition.

The next question is, who is available? The Mets may move Pete Alonso, who is a free agent after the season and might be the best bat available. If the Blue Jays are willing to play Guerrero at third base, maybe the fit works. Alonso’s teammate J.D. Martinez is another candidate. Other bats that could be out there include Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox, Brent Rooker of the Oakland A’s and outfielder Mark Canha of the Detroit Tigers, although the Tigers are, much like the Jays, still in that in-between position as a team that could buy, sell or stand pat.

The next question is, do the Blue Jays have the prospects available to make these deals? After years of dealing from their prospect pool to bolster their MLB roster, Toronto’s farm system has fallen in the rankings. The Athletic’s Keith Law most recently had the Blue Jays as the 20th-best system while ESPN ranked them No. 24.

If they buy and sell: Can they retool for 2025, while auditioning some younger players?

If the Blue Jays don’t find themselves at either extreme of buying or selling, can they straddle the line and do both?

Maybe there is a scenario where the Blue Jays could use a trade involving Kikuchi, Jansen and/or García to bring back a controllable starter who can step into the rotation and replace Alek Manoah, who will miss at least part of the 2025 season after undergoing elbow surgery. In that way, the Blue Jays are selling pieces this year, but immediately re-investing in their present and short-term future.

Meanwhile, moving Turner or Kiermaier may not net a huge haul, but it could have a secondary effect of making room on the active roster for some prospects in Triple A, like Addison Barger or Orelvis Martinez, to be called up and get some runway to play in the majors to see if they can be pieces of the team next season.

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(Top photo of Atkins: Nick Turchiaro / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)