KANSAS CITY — Welcome to July 2024, what could become one of the most consequential months in the 124-year history of Cleveland’s baseball franchise.
OK, perhaps that’s a bit dramatic. But the Guardians have never had a month like the one that lies ahead. It’s not every year that they enter trade season at the top of the standings, with an opportunity to shore up some roster deficiencies and build on a strong first half. And in no year have they owned the top pick in the amateur draft, with an opportunity to toss a top prospect — plus a couple of other high picks — into their farm system.
Anzeige
Rarely do those two assignments simultaneously land on a general manager’s desk. The team always talking about “threading the needle” and tackling short- and long-term contention plans has never been better situated to do so. July marks the peak of summer, and it’ll mark the peak of activity for Cleveland’s front office. For a few weeks, the daily itinerary for the decision-makers in the front office has included draft meetings and trade dialogue. Ask team president Chris Antonetti or GM Mike Chernoff about their to-do list and their first reaction is to laugh.
Somehow, after a rocky 2023 season and a dormant winter, the stars aligned to place the Guardians at the center of the baseball universe for July 2024. This month, they’ll find themselves in the middle of every conversation. What a time to be the Guardians.
They have owned the No. 2 pick in the draft on five occasions, but never the top pick, and they had only a 2 percent chance of claiming the top pick in the lottery before they struck fortune. Antonetti suggested over the weekend the team might not finalize its selection “until moments before we make the pick” on July 14. Posturing? Maybe. Regardless, he’ll snap his fingers and add a top-50 prospect in the sport to the farm system, likely someone who could barge his way into Stephen Vogt’s lineup by next summer. Whether it’s Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana or Georgia slugger Charlie Condon or West Virginia shortstop J.J. Wetherholt, the choice figures to be the top prospect in the organization the instant he shakes hands with commissioner Rob Manfred. It could be the most promising young player they’ve added in a long time, someone to spearhead the franchise’s bid to win a World Series in 2025 and beyond.
But what about the franchise’s bid to win the World Series in 2024?
That top pick’s mere presence should make it easier for the front office to stomach unloading some prospects at the trade deadline. Their needs are clear: help in the rotation, more help in the rotation, even more help in the rotation and then more help in the rotation. Once they’ve exhausted their search for more help in the rotation, they can proceed to something other than more help in the rotation, such as a right-handed bat.
Anzeige
The Guardians have been in contact with other teams about potential trades for weeks now, but those conversations are mostly supplying the groundwork for deals that won’t materialize until closer to the July 30 deadline, if at all. Multiple league executives predicted talks would pause around the draft before gaining steam in the last two weeks of the month.
With three wild-card berths up for grabs in each league and so many teams hovering around .500, the market could develop slowly until desperation sets in as the deadline approaches. One executive described many teams as presenting a “wait-and-see approach” and suggesting they lack clarity on a plan. Teams stuck in the middle figure to wait as long as possible before being forced to decide to buy, sell or stand pat. The Guardians fell into that category last year, opting to sell off Aaron Civale and Josh Bell after weeks of deliberations about whether they had the ingredients to make an October run.
Since there are only a handful of clear-cut sellers at this point, those clubs hold the leverage, asking for each rival GM’s first-born and stressing that they can simply wait until closer to the deadline, when more teams will be in pursuit. The Guardians won’t be the only team chasing after starting pitching help, which will further complicate matters.
They need a boost in their rotation to survive 162 games as much or more than they do to help them win in October, when they can lean more heavily on their league-best bullpen. Starting pitching help isn’t the only option. They could add another hitter, and since they have so many versatile position players, they can target just about anyone made available.
Another alternative should the starting pitching market not improve: adding to what’s already a deep, imposing bullpen to convert it into one that can compensate for a beleaguered rotation the way Cleveland’s relief corps did in October 2016. This isn’t at the top of the priority list, but it would offer protection should rookies Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin stumble in the second half, and it’s usually easier (depending on skill level) to land a reliever in July than a starter.
Anzeige
The Guardians have been aggressive in this spot before, defying modest expectations to emerge as a bona fide contender. In 2011, (prematurely) sensing they were on the verge of a contention window, they packaged four prospects, including a pair of first-round pitchers, for Ubaldo Jiménez, the best starting pitcher available. In 2016, they shipped four prospects to the Yankees for Andrew Miller (and they were in on Aroldis Chapman, too, as a contingency) and two more prospects for Brandon Guyer. They tried to send four others to the Brewers for Jonathan Lucroy, but the catcher vetoed the deal, a development that still makes Cleveland’s executives chuckle and shake their heads.
They also struck deals for Jay Bruce in 2017 and Josh Donaldson in 2018, and in 2019 flipped top prospect Francisco Mejía to the Padres for Brad Hand, the top reliever on the market. If they bundle some of their top prospects this month, they can compensate for it with their new draft class. They own three of the first 48 picks (1, 36, 48).
The Guardians haven’t won the World Series since 1948, a mere 909 months ago. If they finally break the hex, whether this year or in the near future, July 2024 might have a lot to do with it.
GO DEEPER
MLB Draft's battle of Ohio: Guardians, Reds gearing up to make top 2 picks
(Photo of Chris Antonetti: Jason Miller / Getty Images)
