CINCINNATI — Three days after the Washington Nationals designated infielder Nick Senzel for assignment, Cincinnati Reds starter Hunter Greene was named to his first All-Star team.
Senzel and Greene were picked second in their drafts by the Reds in 2016 and 2017, respectively, but their careers have differed. Greene signed an extension before last season while Senzel was non-tendered after the 2023 season, as he no longer fit on the team’s roster.
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Just as not all players are created equally, neither are all drafts.
The 2016 draft had just one player picked in the first round with a bWAR better than 10 — Dodgers catcher Will Smith, taken 32nd out of 41 first-rounders (there are more than 30 first-round picks based on supplemental picks).
Of the first 15 picks in that draft, only six are currently on active big-league rosters or the major-league injured list. Of those six, only two — Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett and Twins outfielder Max Kirilloff — are with the team that drafted them, although both are currently on the IL.
(As a fun aside, right-hander Cal Quantrill’s 9.0 bWAR is the second-highest among first-rounders. He was taken eighth in that year’s draft by the Padres and is on his third big-league team. Now with the Rockies, Quantrill allowed a home run on Tuesday to that year’s No. 14 pick, Will Benson, taken by Cleveland and now a member of the Reds.)
The 2017 draft wasn’t much different, with six of the top 15 currently in the majors or on the IL in the majors. But four are still with their original teams, including Greene and the Twins’ Royce Lewis, taken first overall. Of the 36 players taken in the first round that year, the top bWAR belongs to Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houch (8.4), taken 24th, followed by Greene.
The 2015 draft, on the other hand, has nine players with a bWAR better than 10, led by the Astros’ Alex Bregman (36.8), taken second, and Kyle Tucker (21.9), taken fifth. The 2019 draft’s top two picks, Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr., already have above 10 bWAR.
The lesson there is sometimes it’s more valuable when a team is drafting high rather than how high a team is drafting.
This year’s draft and draft trends
Nobody’s quite sure what to make of this year’s crop, but there’s a consensus on the top two players — Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana and Georgia’s Charlie Condon — and some other names in contention for the top spot.
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The Cleveland Guardians hold the first pick when the draft kicks off Sunday. But the Guardians’ second pick, No. 36 as part of the Competitive Balance Round A, could play a part in who the Guardians select first.
Because each team has an assigned pool of money it can spend on draft picks, it’s possible the Guardians don’t see a player they believe is worth the full $10,570,600 slot value of the first pick. The Guardians have the most slot money at $18.3 million but could go over slot later in the draft if the team saves money on the first pick. It’s a popular draft strategy, especially when there’s no consensus top pick. Last year’s first selection, Paul Skenes, signed with the Pirates for a record $9.2 million last year, but that was short of the full slot value of $9.7 million.
The Reds have a total pool of $15,842,100, the third highest in the draft behind the Guardians and Rockies. The slot bonus of the No. 2 pick this year is $9,785,000, making it possible that the Reds could set a record for the highest signing bonus despite picking second.
The Reds’ recent history suggests they won’t shy away from taking the player they believe is the best because of the asking price.
Last year, the Reds selected right-hander Rhett Lowder out of Wake Forest with the No. 7 pick, but signed him and the team’s competitive balance pick, LSU right-hander Ty Floyd, below their slot value. They then spent well above slot value on their second-round pick, high school shortstop Sammy Stafura, and fourth-round pick, right-hander Cole Schoenwetter.
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While the Reds went under slot for their first two picks last year, they went well above slot in the previous two years. In 2022, infielder Cam Collier was the No. 2 prospect according to The Athletic’s Keith Law but fell to the Reds with the 18th pick. Collier signed for $5 million, well above the slot value of $3,657,900. Because of that, only two of the team’s picks in the top 10 rounds signed at slot value.
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In 2021, the Reds picked 17th and took UCLA shortstop Matt McLain, ranked the No. 6 prospect in that draft by Law. McLain signed for $4.625 million, more than a million dollars more than the slot value of $3,609,700. The team also signed No. 30 pick Jay Allen to a slightly above-slot deal and the 35th pick, catcher Mat Nelson, to a slot deal.
The picks of McLain and Collier prove that under president of baseball operations Nick Krall, the team won’t be scared away by asking prices if the player they want is on the board, especially since its second pick isn’t until No. 51 overall.
The Reds don’t have the second pick in the second round — or any other — because only the first round is decided by the lottery. Every other round goes back to the order of how the teams finished. That means the Reds, whose competitive balance pick is between the second and third rounds, don’t make their second pick until 51st, which carries a bonus of just more than $1.8 million.
So, who do the Reds take?
That will depend on who the Guardians take, of course.
That said, Reds scouting director Joe Katuska doesn’t have to set the top of his board beyond two names. The team will have a top choice and if the Guardians take that choice, they can pick No. 2. While the first decision could be the biggest and will certainly be the most expensive, it’ll also be the easiest and actually made by Cleveland.
So, who is it?
As of now, all signs point toward the Reds agreeing with the general consensus that the player most worthy of the top pick is either Condon or Bazzana. The argument for both players is easy: They can both swing the bat.
Condon won pretty much every award available in college baseball this year, setting the record for most homers in a season since the NCAA put restrictions on bats in 2011 with 37.
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Perhaps more impressive than his record-setting home runs is that he had just four more strikeouts (41) than homers. He also walked 57 times, putting up a .433/.556/1.009 slash line in the nation’s toughest conference, knocking in 78 runs in 60 games. He also finished with 100 hits, 20 doubles, a triple and 84 runs scored over just 304 plate appearances.
The right-hander Condon is 6-foot-6 and a solid 216 pounds. The 21-year-old didn’t have a single Division I scholarship offer out of high school and walked on at Georgia before redshirting his first year in Athens. As a redshirt freshman, he hit .386/.484/.800 with 25 home runs in 56 games.
Defensively, he played mostly first base and right field his first year, while spending most of his time this past season at third base, but also playing first and all three outfield spots. He’ll likely start at third base in pro ball and would project as someone who can play either corner infield or outfield spots.
Bazzana, 21, only played at second base for the Beavers this past season but played a game each in center and left in his freshman and sophomore seasons, respectively. He is considered athletic enough to play in the outfield, but would probably be limited to second base among the infield spots.
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Like Condon, Bazzana will be drafted on the strength of his bat. The Australian hit .407/.568/.911 with 28 home runs, 16 doubles and four triples in 60 games (296 plate appearances). He also stole 16 bases and struck out just 37 times on the season while walking 76 times.
He started playing in his country’s professional league when he was 15, playing three games for the Sydney Blue Sox in the 2018-19 season.
It’s not a lock that the Reds take either Condon or Bazzana, but it does seem most likely. Other names to consider are Florida’s 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, West Virginia shortstop JJ Wetherholt and Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns.
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In the end, the Guardians will take away one option — but the second choice won’t be one that the team is unhappy with.
Additional reading
Reds’ Hunter Greene is an All-Star after an offseason of changes to his preparation, arsenal
2024 MLB Mock Draft 3.0: Cleveland still weighing options. Will it be Travis Bazzana at 1?
Final 2024 MLB Draft top-100 prospect ranking: Condon No. 1; Waldschmidt makes leap
(Photo of Bazzana: Jeff Moreland / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
