MLB Trade Grades: Astros gain stability but pay high price for Yusei Kikuchi pickup

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JULY 09: Yusei Kikuchi #16 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches in the bottom of the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on July 09, 2024 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
By The Athletic MLB Staff
Jul 30, 2024

By Brittany Ghiroli, Andy McCullough and Chad Jennings

The trade

Houston Astros get: LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Toronto Blue Jays get: RHP Jake Bloss, OF Joey Loperfido, 3B Will Wagner


Brittany Ghiroli: For Houston, Kikuchi should help prop up the rotation over the next two-plus months. The Japanese left-hander had a strong market as one of the top rental starters available, despite not being able to carry over the numbers from a career 2023 season, namely because of his ability to generate high strikeouts and low walks. He joins a veteran team in a pennant race and that can be a shot in the arm for performance. But the price was pretty steep.

Anzeige

Just 23, Bloss is a former third-rounder who could evolve into a middle-of-the-rotation arm. Loperfido had a terrific spring training and made his big league debut earlier this year and the 6-foot-3 slugger has already exceeded many projections. Wagner is the son of Astros star Billy Wagner and could see big league time this year. This seems, on paper, to be a nice coup by Ross Atkins for a pending free agent.

Kikuchi changing teams was a foregone conclusion in recent days as Toronto has sold as many expiring contracts as possible in an effort to reload and return to contention in 2025. It’s a solid move for Toronto as it holds on to its core and tries to sell next year. It’s a much bigger gamble for the Astros.

Astros: C+
Blue Jays: A


Andy McCullough: The Astros have surged back into first place in the American League West despite a cavalcade of injuries to the rotation. Cristian Javier and José Urquidy each required elbow reconstruction. Justin Verlander hasn’t pitched since June. Kikuchi will offer some stability. He has significantly under-performed his peripherals this season, with a 4.75 ERA against a 3.64 FIP and a 3.39 xFIP. So the Astros may benefit from some regression, especially if Kikuchi can keep striking out 10.1 batters per nine. He also has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio, 4.33 to 1, of his career.

Kikuchi represents a nice pickup for Houston. The Blue Jays are far from contention and looking to move their pending free agents. Bloss can replace Kikuchi in Toronto’s rotation. He has picked up velocity as he raced through the minor leagues. An unsuccessful cameo in the majors this season should not dim his future too much. He profiles as a back-end starter, which has a good bit of value. Both Wagner and Loperfido have hit the ball well for Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido reached the majors earlier this year. Wagner could soon join him. To get three big-leaguers in exchange for the final months of Kikuchi’s Toronto tenure is a victory for the Blue Jays.

Astros: B
Blue Jays: A


Chad Jennings: Bloss was the Astros’ scheduled starter on Monday night but was scratched in anticipation of this trade. The fact he was supposed to be on the mound in the first place helps explain why the Astros needed to make this move.

Jake Bloss. (Thomas Shea / USA Today)

A series of pitching injuries have left the Astros scrambling for starters, so much so that Bloss — a third-round pick in his first full season of pro ball — has been rushed into spot start duty three times. Kikuchi offers some veteran stability. The left-hander leads the majors with 22 starts, has done a good job generating strikeouts, and some of his underlying metrics are better than his 4.75 ERA suggests. He doesn’t necessarily have to be a top-of-the-rotation difference maker — the Astros have Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia working their way back from injuries — but he should be more reliable than many of the Astros’ current rotation options.

Anzeige

Kikuchi was one of the best rental starters available, but this still feels like a steep price to pay. Bloss has emerged as a solid but not spectacular prospect, while Loperfido has crushed Triple-A pitching and also made his big-league debut this season. Wagner has yet to play in the majors, but he has the Triple-A numbers to suggest he could get a shot whenever the Blue Jays need a bat.

Astros: C+
Blue Jays: A-

(Photo of Yusei Kikuchi: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)

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