Thunder ‘caps: Evaluating Russell Westbrook’s 2018-19 season

OKLAHOMA CITY — The triple-doubles are still there.

The crunch-time misses mixed with critical makes? The style of play analysis and shot-selection takes? That arresting mix of hot temper and haute couture that’s helped define Russell Westbrook as a basketball rock star? None of it went away.

But the conversation about Westbrook is different now.

Nobody denies he’s great. They wonder now if he’s a winner, wonder if the Thunder will ever reach the heights to which they aspire as long as Westbrook has the keys to the franchise.

And that’s because while much of what made Westbrook a star has stayed the same, the results changed.

The Thunder won at least a first-round series in five of Westbrook’s first eight seasons. He was injured in the first round in 2013 and OKC went on to the second round. With him running the point, the Thunder reached the Western Conference Finals in 2011, 2014 and 2016. They lost in the NBA Finals in 2012.

But a first-round playoff exit this season was the organization’s third straight — every year since Kevin Durant fled in free agency and left Westbrook as Oklahoma City’s franchise cornerstone.

It’s changed the way we look at Westbrook. Does the losing bother him? Does it drive him to be better?

“Bother, yes,” Westbrook said. “Drive? I guess, but I don’t really need nothing to drive me to be who I want to be or to be where I want to be.”

He wants to be the best player he can. He wants to win a championship. That’s what Westbrook tells us.

But while the early playoff exits aren’t exclusively his fault, three different teams built around Westbrook have failed to get out of the first round. And this year — maybe more than ever — that’s put a spotlight on him moving forward.

Before we get there, a look back at Westbrook’s 2018-19 season.

What went right

It begins — as so much about Westbrook does — with the triple-double average.

You can argue that Westbrook has broken the concept of double-digit points, rebounds and assists in a game and in a season, that he does it now so routinely as to make it routine.

Still, in context, it’s a staggering achievement.

Westbrook is not the force he was two years ago, when he won the NBA Most Valuable Player award averaging 31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds and 10.4 assists. But his impact on a game remains massive. A team has to account for him whenever he’s on the floor, not only to contain him as a scorer, but to keep him off the boards and try to limit the open shots he generates for other players.

Forget Westbrook’s 22.9 points per game. He’s not the league’s most efficient scorer, but he could get double-digit points in his sleep. But Westbrook’s 10.7 assists per game didn’t just lead the league. They made him the only player in the NBA this season to average double-digits. Washington’s John Wall and Toronto’s Kyle Lowry tied for second at 8.7 per game.

Only 16 NBA players averaged 10 or more rebounds this season. Beside Westbrook, only two of them — Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and Denver’s Nikola Jokic — averaged more than five assists.

It’s easy to pick Westbrook’s game apart in the modern NBA, and we’ll get there. But it’s important to remember that he remains in rarified air when it comes to the breadth of his influence on a game.

“I don’t really care what people say, what they think about me, because it doesn’t really matter,” Westbrook said. “I know what I’m able to do and know what I’m able to do at a high level every night, and nobody else can do what I can do on a night-in, night-out basis, and I truly believe that. If they could, I’m pretty sure they would. But I know for a fact that nobody can.”

Sometimes, though, it’s best when he does a little less.

And Westbrook showed a willingness to step back this season, a potentially significant development moving forward.

Paul George, not Westbrook, was the Thunder’s best player this season. It wasn’t particularly close. And Westbrook didn’t fight the change. At times, he almost leaned into it. That’s promising for Oklahoma City, which probably needs George to take even more ownership moving forward.

What went wrong

Westbrook couldn’t shoot straight.

Any critique of Westbrook’s game starts there, and though the criticism doesn’t always sit well with him, it’s reasonable now more than ever. As 3-point shots become even more important in the NBA, Westbrook is shooting them worse. Westbrook made 29 percent of his 3-pointers this season, the fourth time in five years he finished below 30 percent.

The only exception was his MVP season, when Westbrook shot more 3-pointers than ever — 7.9 per game — and hit a career-best 34.3 percent of them. Two years later, that looks far more like an outlier than an indicator of a late-career perimeter shooting surge.

This season, Westbrook’s shooting reached a tipping point. More than ever, defenses — including Portland’s in the playoffs — sagged off him and dared him to take jump shots. It’s remarkable, when you consider it: In 2017, Westbrook was the league MVP. Two years later, it’s a sound strategy to let him shoot.

Given Westbrook’s jump-shooting struggles, it was crucial that he scored in the ways he’s built to — finishing in transition and getting easy points at the free-throw line. But he slumped in both areas.

Westbrook averaged seven transition possessions per game, most in the NBA, but averaged 0.87 points per transition possession. That’s the lowest among the eight players who averaged at least five transition possessions per game (scroll left to right for full chart):

This was the first time since the NBA made transition stats available that Westbrook scored less than 0.99 points per possession in transition. Westbrook scored on 44.3 percent of his transition opportunities, which ranked in the 11th percentile in the NBA.

Westbrook also continued a troubling trend at the free-throw line, where he shot a career-worst 65.6 percent. In his first nine seasons, Westbrook shot a combined 82.3 percent at the foul line. In the past two, a combined 70.1.

What comes next

Westbrook famously says his approach to the game never changes, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t make tweaks. After the season, he said he “changed some stuff up” at the free-throw line for the playoffs, and he shot 88.5 percent there in the first-round series.

An openness to change is important. It can only help the Thunder if Westbrook is willing to remove a little from his game — and to add a wrinkle or two. He should start with the 3-point shots. Some of them need to go.

Westbrook shot 5.6 3-pointers per game this season, second-most in his career. He’d be better off in the sweet spot he found in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons, a two-year span in which he attempted 3.4 per game and shot 32.1 percent.

It’s not just about the number of 3s Westbrook attempts. It’s about the kind he takes.

Westbrook attempted 135 3-pointers this season after three or more dribbles and made 31. That’s 22.9 percent. A look at how his 3-point shooting broke down this season by the number of dribbles before he shot:

That’s a strong indicator that Westbrook should keep his dribbling to a minimum before he shoots 3-point shots. If he can do that and follow up on his promise to improve as a shooter — his focus should be on catch-and-shoot opportunities — he could be significantly more valuable playing without the ball, a key for the Thunder facilitating offense with ball movement.

Beyond this subtraction, Westbrook could make a critical addition. Westbrook shot 20.8 percent on shots from 3-10 feet this season, according to Basketball-Reference.com, worst in his career. Those shots aren’t a significant part of his repertoire, but Westbrook might be able to improve that number if he could develop a floater to shore up his in-between game.

Westbrook could look at former teammate James Harden for a floater-building blueprint, or he could turn closer to home. The floater also is a weapon for his current backup, Dennis Schröder, who hit 40.6 percent of his shots from 3-10 feet.

There’s more Westbrook could stand to improve. If he cares about his long-term legacy, an image overhaul would help. He might not care enough about winning press conferences to change there.

But Westbrook does care about winning games. He said last week that after every season he’ll “always look at myself for how I can be better,” and there are changes he can make that might help the Thunder advance when it matters most.

After 11 years in the NBA, Westbrook is unlikely to change significantly. But small tweaks could help his team get back to its winning ways.

And that’s his chance to change the conversation again.

(Photo: Cameron Browne / NBAE via Getty Images)