“Swift swings” takes a quick peek at one economic trend.
The number: California’s economy started 2024 with its slowest business growth in five quarters.
The source: My trusty spreadsheet peeked at state-by-state gross domestic product, a broad measure of business output tallied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Quick analysis
California’s economy grew at a 1.2% annual rate to start 2024, the lowest since 2022’s fourth quarter. This meek GDP expansion ranked No. 29 among the states and the District of Columbia.
Just so you know, the median state GDP growth was only 1.4% as 11 states saw businesses contract. The largest declines were in South Dakota, off at a 4.2% annual rate, and North Dakota and Kansas, off 3.9%.
The top gainer was Idaho at 5%, then Nevada at 4.4%, and Oklahoma at 4.2%. California’s big economic rivals? Rival Texas was 13th-best, up 2.5%. Florida was No. 6, up 3%.
The trend
The Federal Reserve’s effort to cool an overheated economy with high interest rates seems to be chilling business output.
Let’s compare California’s early 2024 business expansion to a swifter end of 2023.
In the fourth quarter, California also ranked No. 29 but grew at 3.1% yearly pace. National growth was 3.3%, and every state had GDP increases.
No. 1 was Nevada at 6.7%, followed by Idaho at 6.6% and Utah at 5.4%. Slowest was Nebraska at 0.2%, then Kansas at 0.6%, and D.C. at 0.8%. Texas was No. 5 at 5% and Florida, No. 8 at 4.6%.
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So when you compare the past two quarters, you see an economy that slowed in 46 states to start 2024 – including California’s 1.9 percentage-point drop in GDP growth. Nationally, the median decline was 2.2 percentage points.
Biggest drops? North Dakota and South Dakota, 6.4 percentage points slower, and Iowa, off 4.9. The five gainers were Oklahoma, up 1.5, Hawaii and New York, up 0.9, DC, up 0.5, and Arkansas, up 0.3.
Rival Texas was 31st best, off 2.5 points. Florida, 18th best, off 1.6 points.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
