“Swift swings” takes a quick peek at one economic trend.
The number: Southern California pay raises remain at their lowest levels since 2020.
The source: My trusty spreadsheet looked at the Employment Cost Index for private-industry workers. The index tracks what bosses pay in wages and salaries for 15 major job markets – including a local area comprising Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties – as well as national patterns.
Quick analysis
Employees cost Southern California bosses 4.5% more in wages and salaries in the year ended in June, the No. 8 gain among the 15 regions studied. This hike matched the pace of wage hikes found in March.
However, these raises are below June 2023’s 5.3% and the 4.9% average throughout 2022-23. By the way, the last time wage increases were smaller was the 12 months ended in September 2020.
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The good news is that the 2024 pay hikes do beat Southern California’s 3.5% inflation rates for the first half of the year, as tracked by Consumer Price Indexes for five local counties. However, pay hikes beating local inflation averaged 6% a year during 2021-23.
Nationally, these same pay raises ran 4.1% through June vs. 4.3% three months earlier, 4.6% a year ago and a 4.9% average in 2022-23. The last time US pay hikes were smaller were in June 2021.
Raises shrank in nine of the 15 job markets tracked. These smaller raises fit the recent weaker job market theme, as many bosses no longer have to pay up in the scramble to staff their operations.
But the Bay Area was an outlier. Wages rose 5.2% in a year – No. 3 of the 15, by this math. That was a record high for these stats that date to 2006 and were up from 4.7% in March, 4.4% a year ago, and a 4.1% average in 2022-23.
Elsewhere
Wage hikes for 13 regions outside of California tracked by this index. Here’s where raises were bigger …
Miami: 6.6% raise – up 1.1 percentage points in a year.
Atlanta: 5.4% raise – up 0.8 points.
Houston: 5.1% raise – up 2.5 points.
Minneapolis: 4.3% raise – up 0.2 points.
Detroit: 4.6% raise – up 0.5 points.
And where they fell …
Washington, DC: 4.9% raise – off 0.8 percentage points in a year.
Seattle: 4.6% raise – off 0.8 points.
New York: 4% raise – off 0.6 points.
Dallas: 3.9% raise – off 0.4 points.
Chicago: 3.5% raise – off 0.7 points.
Boston: 3.3% raise – off 0.9 points.
Phoenix: 3.3% raise – off 1 point.
Philadelphia: 3.2% raise – off 3.4 points
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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