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THE Football Analytics Handbook
THE Football Analytics Handbook
THE
FOOTBALL ANALYTICS
HANDBOOK
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
2
A brief history of
FOOTBALL
ANALYTICS
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
3
A brief history of
FOOTBALL
ANALYTICS
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
4
We will go through:
SMART SCOUTING
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
INJURY PREVENTION AND REHABILITATION
Applications of
FOOTBALL
ANALYTICS
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
5
SMART SCOUTING
Smart
SCOUTING
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
6
The English club Brentford and the Danish FC Midtjylland have one
thing in common, apart from their ownership: they are able to punch
above their weight, i.e. they have figured out how to compete with
much smaller budgets than their peers.
Smart
SCOUTING
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
7
The way they do this is a relatively simple concept, but one that it is
very hard to actually pull off: maximise returns in the transfer market.
Their success in the transfer market allows Brentford to successfully
compete in the English Championship, despite having a salary
budget of less than £15m, 60% lower than the league average (£39m).
N. MAUPAY A. GRAY
Last season at Brentford Last season at Brentford
2018/2109 2014/2015
43 Appearances 45
25 Goals 17
8 Assists 6
20 Selling Fee (£ m) 12
Smart
SCOUTING
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
9
The purchases of Manè, Salah, Alisson and Virgil van Dijk all seemed
too expensive at the time. Instead, the players’ valuations have
significantly increased since Liverpool bought them. Below we
compare the purchasing fee with the current valuation (post-COVID)
of two of Liverpool’s most important signings since 2016/17 (the first
full season with Edwards as Sporting Director).
M. SALAH S.MANE'
Last season at Liverpool Last season at Liverpool
EPL 2018/2109 EPL 2018/2109
38 Appearances 36
22 Goals 22
8 Assists 1
So, what is the secret formula that Brentford and Liverpool are
using? We believe that it comes down to two main factors.
Smart
SCOUTING
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
11
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Football clubs, along with the media and even fans, can, with the
support of data, easily understand how a team or player has
performed over the course of a match or season. Even the most basic
stats, like the number of shots, shots on target, and ball possession,
can offer a guide, albeit an incomplete one, of how two teams have
performed and if their performance was in line with the result of the
match. If we then improve the granularity of the stats and include
selected performance indicators, the dataset gradually begins to give
a more defined and complete picture of what has happened on the
pitch, which enables a detailed analysis of the game. Such
granularity can offer a coach more information on how the team has
performed and even whether or not it complied with the pre-match
instructions.
Performance
ANALYSIS
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
12
Performance
ANALYSIS
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
13
How can Expected Goals revolutionise football? In our view, there are
two main areas that are clearly open for disruption:
Performance
ANALYSIS
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
14
Expected Assists are derived from Expected Goals and measure the
probability of a created chance (or key pass) being converted into a
goal. Very skilled creators whose teammates haven’t been too good
at finishing can, with the help of Expected Assists, be recognised for
their efforts. Take for example, Kylian Mbappé: in the French Ligue 1
he managed 5 assists this season, or 0.3 per 90 minutes. Not a bad
return, but far from the highest-ranking players on this metric.
However, he has created 10.6 Expected Assists, 0.625 per 90 minutes,
one of the highest in Europe.
K.MBAPPE'
Paris Saint-Germain
Ligue 1 2019/2020
20 Appearances
18 Goals
5 Assists
0.3 Assists P90
0.6 Performance
xA P90
ANALYSIS
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
15
Performance
ANALYSIS
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
16
L.MESSI
FC Barcelona
La Liga 2019/2020
81 SPR
100 Dribbling
93 Passing
79 Vision
75 Attacking
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
17
The Performance Indexes and the SPR are powerful scouting tools.
The former can clearly identify the best players in one specific,
technical aspect of the game; while the latter offers an immediate
view on players’ performance level during the season, or even
throughout their entire career. Using a performance index like ours it
is easier to spot outliers. In the case below, we used it to find the
outliers for different age groups. For more information, you could
read our post on LinkedIn.
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
18
PLAYER DEVELOPMENT
Player
Player
D EVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
19
Player
Player
D EVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
20
C. STENGS
WAM | AZ Alkmaar
Eredivise 2019/2020
25 Appearances
5 Goals
7 Assists
Successuful dribbles
2.4
P90
0.7 Performance
Through balls P90
2.5 A Ncreated
Chance ALYS IS
P90
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
21
M. BOADU
FW | AZ Alkmaar
Eredivise 2019/2020
24 Appearances
14 Goals
6 Assists
52% Performance
Shooting Accuracy
7 ANALYSIS
Touches in the box
P90
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
22
INJURY PREVENTION
The origins at Milan Lab. It was founded in 2002 to reduce the risk of
AC Milan players getting injured, help injured players recover faster,
and improve training methodologies by personalising sessions. It is
said that AC Milan’s chairman, Silvio Berlusconi, decided to form
Milan Lab and tasked Belgian doctor Jean Pierre Meersseman with
the job after Fernando Redondo, recently signed from Real Madrid,
ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament during pre-season
training. Milan Lab’s fame grew over the years and began to be seen
as one of the drivers of AC Milan’s domination of European football.
When the Rossoneri won the Champions League in 2007, for
instance, the team’s average age was well above 30 and
captain Paolo Maldini was approaching 40 years of age. Milan Lab
seemed to be dramatically extending players’ careers. Although the
use of technology and data was pivotal to Milan Lab, its detractors
say that at the very core of the project was the chiropractic
philosophy, which is seen as unorthodox by most of the scientific
world.
Injury
PREVENTION
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
23
Injury
PREVENTION
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
24
Injury
PREVENTION
SOCCERMENT RESEARCH
25
Books:
“Moneyball: The Art Of Winning An Unfair Game” (by Michael
Lewis)
“The Numbers Game“ (by Chris Anderson and David Sally)
“Soccernomics” (by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski)
“Soccermatics” (by David Sumpter)
“The Expected Goals Philosophy” (by James Tippett)
“Football Hackers” (by Christoph Biermann)
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