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Inhalt
Inhalt
ABOUT THE AUTHORS XIX
PREFACE XXIII
CHAPTER 1 Introduction 2
1.1 Decision Making 4
1.2 Business Analytics Defined 5
1.3 A Categorization of Analytical Methods and Models 6
Descriptive Analytics 6
Predictive Analytics 6
Prescriptive Analytics 7
1.4 Big Data 7
Volume 9
Velocity 9
Variety 9
Veracity 9
1.5 Business Analytics in Practice 11
Financial Analytics 11
Human Resource (HR) Analytics 12
Marketing Analytics 12
Health Care Analytics 12
Supply-Chain Analytics 13
Analytics for Government and Nonprofits 13
Sports Analytics 13
Web Analytics 14
Summary 14
Glossary 15
CHAPTER 2 Descriptive Statistics 18

Analytics in Action: U.S. Census Bureau 19
2.1 Overview of Using Data: Definitions and Goals 19
2.2 Types of Data 21
Population and Sample Data 21
Quantitative and Categorical Data 21
Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data 21
Sources of Data 21
2.3 Modifying Data in Excel 24
Sorting and Filtering Data in Excel 24
Conditional Formatting of Data in Excel 27
2.4 Creating Distributions from Data 29
Frequency Distributions for Categorical Data 29
Relative Frequency and Percent Frequency Distributions 30
Frequency Distributions for Quantitative Data 31
Histograms 34
Cumulative Distributions 37
viii Contents
2.5 Measures of Location 39
Mean (Arithmetic Mean) 39
Median 40
Mode 41
Geometric Mean 41
2.6 Measures of Variability 44
Range 44
Variance 45
Standard Deviation 46
Coefficient of Variation 47
2.7 Analyzing Distributions 47
Percentiles 48
Quartiles 49
z-Scores 49
Empirical Rule 50
Identifying Outliers 52
Box Plots 52
2.8 Measures of Association Between Two Variables 55
Scatter Charts 55
Covariance 57
Correlation Coefficient 60
2.9 Data Cleansing 61
Missing Data 61
Blakely Tires 63
Identification of Erroneous Outliers and Other Erroneous
Values 65
Variable Representation 67
Summary 68
Glossary 69
Problems 71
Case Problem: Heavenly Chocolates Web Site Transactions 79
Appendix 2.1 Creating Box Plots with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 3 Data Visualization 82

Analytics in Action: Cincinnati Zoo & Botanical Garden 83
3.1 Overview of Data Visualization 85
Effective Design Techniques 85
3.2 Tables 88
Table Design Principles 89
Crosstabulation 90
PivotTables in Excel 93
Recommended PivotTables in Excel 97
3.3 Charts 99
Scatter Charts 99
Recommended Charts in Excel 101
Contents ix
Line Charts 102

Bar Charts and Column Charts 106
A Note on Pie Charts and Three-Dimensional Charts 107
Bubble Charts 109
Heat Maps 110
Additional Charts for Multiple Variables 112
PivotCharts in Excel 115
3.4 Advanced Data Visualization 117
Advanced Charts 117
Geographic Information Systems Charts 120
3.5 Data Dashboards 122
Principles of Effective Data Dashboards 123
Applications of Data Dashboards 123
Summary 125
Glossary 125
Problems 126
Case Problem: All-Time Movie Box-Office Data 136
Appendix 3.1 Creating a Scatter-Chart Matrix and a Parallel-Coordinates
Plot with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 4 Descriptive Data Mining 138

Analytics in Action: Advice from a Machine 139
4.1 Cluster Analysis 140
Measuring Similarity Between Observations 140
Hierarchical Clustering 143
k-Means Clustering 146
Hierarchical Clustering versus k-Means Clustering 147
4.2 Association Rules 148
Evaluating Association Rules 150
4.3 Text Mining 151
Voice of the Customer at Triad Airline 151
Preprocessing Text Data for Analysis 153
Movie Reviews 154
Summary 155
Glossary 155
Problems 156
Case Problem: Know Thy Customer 164
Available in the MindTap Reader:
Appendix 4.1 Hierarchical Clustering with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.2 k-Means Clustering with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.3 Association Rules with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.4 Text Mining with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.5 Opening and Saving Excel files in JMP Pro
Appendix 4.6 Hierarchical Clustering with JMP Pro
x Contents
Appendix 4.7 k-Means Clustering with JMP Pro

Appendix 4.8 Association Rules with JMP Pro
Appendix 4.9 Text Mining with JMP Pro
CHAPTER 5 Probability: An Introduction to

Modeling Uncertainty 166
Analytics in Action: National Aeronautics and Space Administration 167
5.1 Events and Probabilities 168
5.2 Some Basic Relationships of Probability 169
Complement of an Event 169
Addition Law 170
5.3 Conditional Probability 172
Independent Events 177
Multiplication Law 177
Bayes’ Theorem 178
5.4 Random Variables 180
Discrete Random Variables 180
Continuous Random Variables 181
5.5 Discrete Probability Distributions 182
Custom Discrete Probability Distribution 182
Expected Value and Variance 184
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution 187
Binomial Probability Distribution 188
Poisson Probability Distribution 191
5.6 Continuous Probability Distributions 194
Uniform Probability Distribution 194
Triangular Probability Distribution 196
Normal Probability Distribution 198
Exponential Probability Distribution 203
Summary 207
Glossary 207
Problems 209
Case Problem: Hamilton County Judges 218
CHAPTER 6 Statistical Inference 220

Analytics in Action: John Morrell & Company 221
6.1 Selecting a Sample 223
Sampling from a Finite Population 223
Sampling from an Infinite Population 224
6.2 Point Estimation 227
Practical Advice 229
6.3 Sampling Distributions 229
Sampling Distribution of x 232
Sampling Distribution of p 237
Contents xi
6.4 Interval Estimation 240

Interval Estimation of the Population Mean 240
Interval Estimation of the Population Proportion 247
6.5 Hypothesis Tests 250
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses 250
Type I and Type II Errors 253
Hypothesis Test of the Population Mean 254
Hypothesis Test of the Population Proportion 265
6.6 Big Data, Statistical Inference, and Practical Significance 268
Sampling Error 268
Nonsampling Error 269
Big Data 270
Understanding What Big Data Is 271
Big Data and Sampling Error 272
Big Data and the Precision of Confidence Intervals 273
Implications of Big Data for Confidence Intervals 274
Big Data, Hypothesis Testing, and p Values 275
Implications of Big Data in Hypothesis Testing 277
Summary 278
Glossary 279
Problems 281
Case Problem 1: Young Professional Magazine 291
Case Problem 2: Quality Associates, Inc 292
CHAPTER 7 Linear Regression 294

Analytics in Action: Alliance Data Systems 295
7.1 Simple Linear Regression Model 296
Regression Model 296
Estimated Regression Equation 296
7.2 Least Squares Method 298
Least Squares Estimates of the Regression Parameters 300
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Estimated
Regression Equation 302
7.3 Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear Regression Model 304
The Sums of Squares 304
The Coefficient of Determination 306
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Coefficient
of Determination 307
7.4 The Multiple Regression Model 308
Estimated Multiple Regression Equation 308
Least Squares Method and Multiple Regression 309
Butler Trucking Company and Multiple Regression 310
Using Excel’s Regression Tool to Develop the Estimated Multiple
Regression Equation 310
xii Contents
7.5 Inference and Regression 313

Conditions Necessary for Valid Inference in the Least Squares
Testing Individual Regression Parameters 318
Addressing Nonsignificant Independent Variables 321
Multicollinearity 322
7.6 Categorical Independent Variables 325
Butler Trucking Company and Rush Hour 325
Interpreting the Parameters 327
More Complex Categorical Variables 328
7.7 Modeling Nonlinear Relationships 330
Quadratic Regression Models 331
Piecewise Linear Regression Models 335
Interaction Between Independent Variables 337
7.8 Model Fitting 342
Variable Selection Procedures 342
Overfitting 343
7.9 Big Data and Regression 344
Inference and Very Large Samples 344
Model Selection 348
7.10 Prediction with Regression 349
Summary 351
Glossary 352
Problems 354
Case Problem: Alumni Giving 369
Appendix 7.1 Regression with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 8 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 372

Analytics in Action: ACCO Brands 373
8.1 Time Series Patterns 375
Horizontal Pattern 375
Trend Pattern 377
Seasonal Pattern 378
Trend and Seasonal Pattern 379
Cyclical Pattern 382
Identifying Time Series Patterns 382
8.2 Forecast Accuracy 382
8.3 Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing 386
Moving Averages 387
Exponential Smoothing 391
8.4 Using Regression Analysis for Forecasting 395
Linear Trend Projection 395
Seasonality Without Trend 397
Seasonality with Trend 398
Using Regression Analysis as a Causal Forecasting Method 401
Contents xiii
Combining Causal Variables with Trend and Seasonality Effects 404

Considerations in Using Regression in Forecasting 405
8.5 Determining the Best Forecasting Model to Use 405
Summary 406
Glossary 406
Problems 407
Case Problem: Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales 415
Appendix 8.1 Using the Excel Forecast Sheet 416
Appendix 8.2 Forecasting with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 9 Predictive Data Mining 422

Analytics in Action: Orbitz 423
9.1 Data Sampling, Preparation, and Partitioning 424
9.2 Performance Measures 425
Evaluating the Classification of Categorical Outcomes 425
Evaluating the Estimation of Continuous Outcomes 431
9.3 Logistic Regression 432
9.4 k-Nearest Neighbors 436
Classifying Categorical Outcomes with k-Nearest Neighbors 436
Estimating Continuous Outcomes with k-Nearest Neighbors 438
9.5 Classification and Regression Trees 439
Classifying Categorical Outcomes with a Classification Tree 439
Estimating Continuous Outcomes with a Regression Tree 445
Ensemble Methods 446
Summary 449
Glossary 450
Problems 452
Case Problem: Grey Code Corporation 462
Appendix 9.1 Data Partitioning with Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.2 Logistic Regression Classification with Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.3 k-Nearest Neighbor Classification and Estimation with
Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.4 Single Classification and Regression Trees with
Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.5 Random Forests of Classification or Regression Trees with
Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.6 Data Partitioning with JMP Pro
Appendix 9.7 Logistic Regression Classification with JMP Pro
Appendix 9.8 k-Nearest Neighbor Classification and Estimation with
JMP Pro
Appendix 9.9 Single Classification and Regression Trees with JMP Pro
Appendix 9.10 Random Forests of Classification and Regression Trees
with JMP Pro
xiv Contents
CHAPTER 10 Spreadsheet Models 464

Analytics in Action: Procter & Gamble 465
10.1 Building Good Spreadsheet Models 466
Influence Diagrams 466
Building a Mathematical Model 466
Spreadsheet Design and Implementing
the Model in a Spreadsheet 468
10.2 What-If Analysis 471
Data Tables 471
Goal Seek 473
Scenario Manager 475
10.3 Some Useful Excel Functions for Modeling 480
SUM and SUMPRODUCT 481
IF and COUNTIF 483
VLOOKUP 485
10.4 Auditing Spreadsheet Models 487
Trace Precedents and Dependents 487
Show Formulas 487
Evaluate Formulas 489
Error Checking 489
Watch Window 490
10.5 Predictive and Prescriptive Spreadsheet Models 491
Summary 492
Glossary 492
Problems 493
Case Problem: Retirement Plan 499
CHAPTER 11 Monte Carlo Simulation 500

Analytics in Action: Polio Eradication 501
11.1 Risk Analysis for Sanotronics LLC 502
Base-Case Scenario 502
Worst-Case Scenario 503
Best-Case Scenario 503
Sanotronics Spreadsheet Model 503
Use of Probability Distributions to Represent Random
Variables 504
Generating Values for Random Variables with Excel 506
Executing Simulation Trials with Excel 510
Measuring and Analyzing Simulation Output 510
11.2 Simulation Modeling for Land Shark Inc. 514
Spreadsheet Model for Land Shark 515
Generating Values for Land Shark’s Random Variables 517
Executing Simulation Trials and Analyzing Output 519
Generating Bid Amounts with Fitted Distributions 522
11.3 Simulation with Dependent Random Variables 527
Spreadsheet Model for Press Teag Worldwide 527
Contents xv
11.4 Simulation Considerations 532

Verification and Validation 532
Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Simulation 532
Summary 533
Glossary 534
Problems 534
Case Problem: Four Corners 547
Appendix 11.1 Common Probability Distributions for Simulation 549
Appendix 11.2 Land Shark Inc. Simulation with Analytic Solver
Appendix 11.3 Distribution Fitting with Analytic Solver
Appendix 11.4 Correlating Random Variables with Analytic Solver
Appendix 11.5 Simulation Optimization with Analytic Solver
CHAPTER 12 Linear Optimization Models 556

Analytics in Action: General Electric 557
12.1 A Simple Maximization Problem 558
Problem Formulation 559
Mathematical Model for the Par, Inc. Problem 561
12.2 Solving the Par, Inc. Problem 561
The Geometry of the Par, Inc. Problem 562
Solving Linear Programs with Excel Solver 564
12.3 A Simple Minimization Problem 568
Problem Formulation 568
Solution for the M&D Chemicals Problem 568
12.4 Special Cases of Linear Program Outcomes 570
Alternative Optimal Solutions 571
Infeasibility 572
Unbounded 573
12.5 Sensitivity Analysis 575
Interpreting Excel Solver Sensitivity Report 575
12.6 General Linear Programming Notation
and More Examples 577
Investment Portfolio Selection 578
Transportation Planning 580
Advertising Campaign Planning 584
12.7 Generating an Alternative Optimal Solution
for a Linear Program 589
Summary 591
Glossary 592
Problems 593
Case Problem: Investment Strategy 604
Appendix 12.1 Solving Linear Optimization Models Using
Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
xvi Contents
CHAPTER 13 Integer Linear Optimization Models 606

Analytics in Action: Petrobras 607
13.1 Types of Integer Linear Optimization Models 607
13.2 Eastborne Realty, an Example of Integer Optimization 608
The Geometry of Linear All-Integer Optimization 609
13.3 Solving Integer Optimization Problems with Excel Solver 611
A Cautionary Note About Sensitivity Analysis 614
13.4 Applications Involving Binary Variables 616
Capital Budgeting 616
Fixed Cost 618
Bank Location 621
Product Design and Market Share Optimization 623
13.5 Modeling Flexibility Provided by Binary Variables 626
Multiple-Choice and Mutually Exclusive Constraints 626
k Out of n Alternatives Constraint 627
Conditional and Corequisite Constraints 627
13.6 Generating Alternatives in Binary Optimization 628
Summary 630
Glossary 631
Problems 632
Case Problem: Applecore Children’s Clothing 643
Appendix 13.1 Solving Integer Linear Optimization Problems Using
Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 14 Nonlinear Optimization Models 646

Analytics in Action: InterContinental Hotels 647
14.1 A Production Application: Par, Inc. Revisited 647
An Unconstrained Problem 647
A Constrained Problem 648
Solving Nonlinear Optimization Models Using Excel Solver 650
Sensitivity Analysis and Shadow Prices in Nonlinear Models 651
14.2 Local and Global Optima 652
Overcoming Local Optima with Excel Solver 655
14.3 A Location Problem 657
14.4 Markowitz Portfolio Model 658
14.5 Forecasting Adoption of a New Product 663
Summary 666
Glossary 667
Problems 667
Case Problem: Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs 675
Appendix 14.1 Solving Nonlinear Optimization Problems with Analytic
Solver (MindTap Reader)
Contents xvii
CHAPTER 15 Decision Analysis 678

Analytics in Action: Phytopharm 679
15.1 Problem Formulation 680
Payoff Tables 681
Decision Trees 681
15.2 Decision Analysis without Probabilities 682
Optimistic Approach 682
Conservative Approach 683
Minimax Regret Approach 683
15.3 Decision Analysis with Probabilities 685
Expected Value Approach 685
Risk Analysis 687
Sensitivity Analysis 688
15.4 Decision Analysis with Sample Information 689
Expected Value of Sample Information 694
Expected Value of Perfect Information 694
15.5 Computing Branch Probabilities with Bayes’ Theorem 695
15.6 Utility Theory 698
Utility and Decision Analysis 699
Utility Functions 703
Exponential Utility Function 706
Summary 708
Glossary 708
Problems 710
Case Problem: Property Purchase Strategy 721
Appendix 15.1 Using Analytic Solver to Create Decision Trees
(MindTap Reader)
APPENDIX A Basics of Excel 724
APPENDIX B Database Basics with Microsoft Access 736
APPENDIX C Solutions to Even-Numbered Questions (MindTap Reader)
REFERENCES 774
INDEX 776
About the Authors
Jeffrey D. Camm. Jeffrey D. Camm is the Inmar Presidential Chair and Associate Dean of
Analytics in the School of Business at Wake Forest University. Born in Cincinnati, Ohio, he
holds a B.S. from Xavier University (Ohio) and a Ph.D. from Clemson University. Prior to
joining the faculty at Wake Forest, he was on the faculty of the University of Cincinnati. He
has also been a visiting scholar at Stanford University and a visiting professor of business
administration at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College.
Dr. Camm has published over 35 papers in the general area of optimization applied
to problems in operations management and marketing. He has published his research in
Science, Management Science, Operations Research, Interfaces, and other professional
journals. Dr. Camm was named the Dornoff Fellow of Teaching Excellence at the Univer-
sity of Cincinnati and he was the 2006 recipient of the INFORMS Prize for the Teaching of
Operations Research Practice. A firm believer in practicing what he preaches, he has served
as an analytics consultant to numerous companies and government agencies. From 2005
to 2010 he served as editor-in-chief of Interfaces. In 2016, Dr. Camm was awarded the
Kimball Medal for service to the operations research profession and in 2017 he was named
an INFORMS Fellow.
James J. Cochran. James J. Cochran is Associate Dean for Research, Professor of Applied
Statistics, and the Rogers-Spivey Faculty Fellow at the University of Alabama. Born in Day-
ton, Ohio, he earned his B.S., M.S., and M.B.A. degrees from Wright State University and a
Ph.D. from the University of Cincinnati. He has been at the University of Alabama since 2014
and has been a visiting scholar at Stanford University, Universidad de Talca, the University
of South Africa, and Pole Universitaire Leonard de Vinci.
Professor Cochran has published over three dozen papers in the development and
application of operations research and statistical methods. He has published his research
in Management Science, The American Statistician, Communications in Statistics—Theory
and Methods, Annals of Operations Research, European Journal of Operational Research,
Journal of Combinatorial Optimization. Interfaces, Statistics and Probability Letters, and
other professional journals. He was the 2008 recipient of the INFORMS Prize for the
Teaching of Operations Research Practice and the 2010 recipient of the Mu Sigma Rho
Statistical Education Award. Professor Cochran was elected to the International Statistics
Institute in 2005 and named a Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 2011 and a
Fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
in 2017. He also received the Founders Award in 2014, the Karl E. Peace Award in 2015,
and the Waller Distinguished Teaching Career Award in 2017 from the American Statistical
Association. A strong advocate for effective operations research and statistics education as
a means of improving the quality of applications to real problems, Professor Cochran has
organized and chaired teaching effectiveness workshops in Montevideo, Uruguay; Cape
Town, South Africa; Cartagena, Colombia; Jaipur, India; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Nairobi,
Kenya; Buea, C ameroon; Suva, Fiji; Kathmandu, Nepal; Osijek, Croatia; Havana, Cuba;
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; and Chişinău, Moldova. He has served as an operations research
consultant to numerous companies and not-for-profit organizations. He served as editor-
in-chief of INFORMS Transactions on E ducation from 2006 to 2012 and is on the editorial
board of Interfaces, International Transactions in Operational Research, and Significance.
Michael J. Fry. Michael J. Fry is Professor and Head of the Department of Operations,
Business Analytics, and Information Systems in the Carl H. Lindner College of Business
at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Killeen, Texas, he earned a B.S. from Texas A&M
University, and M.S.E. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Michigan. He has been
xx About the Authors
at the University of Cincinnati since 2002, where he has been named a Lindner Research
Fellow and has served as Assistant Director and Interim Director of the Center for Business
Analytics. He has also been a visiting professor at Cornell University and at the University
of British Columbia.
Professor Fry has published over 20 research papers in journals such as Operations
Research, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, Transportation Science, Naval
Research Logistics, IIE Transactions, and Interfaces. His research interests are in applying
quantitative management methods to the areas of supply chain analytics, sports analytics, and
public-policy operations. He has worked with many different organizations for his research,
including Dell, Inc., Copeland Corporation, Starbucks Coffee Company, Great American
Insurance Group, the Cincinnati Fire Department, the State of Ohio Election Commission, the
Cincinnati Bengals, and the Cincinnati Zoo. In 2008, he was named a finalist for the Daniel
H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice, and he has been recognized
for both his research and teaching excellence at the University of Cincinnati.
Jeffrey W. Ohlmann. Jeffrey W. Ohlmann is Associate Professor of Management Sciences

and Huneke Research Fellow in the Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa.
Born in Valentine, Nebraska, he earned a B.S. from the University of Nebraska, and M.S.
and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Michigan. He has been at the University of Iowa
since 2003.
Professor Ohlmann’s research on the modeling and solution of decision-making problems
has produced over 20 research papers in journals such as Operations Research, Mathematics
of Operations Research, INFORMS Journal on Computing, Transportation Science, E uropean
Journal of Operational Research, and Interfaces. He has collaborated with companies
such as Transfreight, LeanCor, Cargill, the Hamilton County Board of Elections, and three
National Football League franchises. Due to the relevance of his work to industry, he was
bestowed the George B. Dantzig Dissertation Award and was recognized as a finalist for the
Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice.
David R. Anderson. David R. Anderson is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis in

the Carl H. Lindner College of Business at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Grand Forks,
North Dakota, he earned his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees from Purdue University. Professor
Anderson has served as Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis and Operations
Management and as Associate Dean of the College of Business Administration. In addition,
he was the coordinator of the College’s first Executive Program.
At the University of Cincinnati, Professor Anderson has taught introductory statistics
for business students as well as graduate-level courses in regression analysis, multivariate
analysis, and management science. He has also taught statistical courses at the Department of
Labor in Washington, D.C. He has been honored with nominations and awards for excellence
in teaching and excellence in service to student organizations.
Professor Anderson has coauthored 10 textbooks in the areas of statistics, management
science, linear programming, and production and operations management. He is an active
consultant in the field of sampling and statistical methods.
Dennis J. Sweeney. Dennis J. Sweeney is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis and

Founder of the Center for Productivity Improvement at the University of Cincinnati. Born in
Des Moines, Iowa, he earned a B.S.B.A. degree from Drake University and his M.B.A. and
D.B.A. degrees from Indiana University, where he was an NDEA Fellow. During 1978–1979,
Professor Sweeney worked in the management science group at Procter & Gamble; during
1981–1982, he was a visiting professor at Duke University. Professor Sweeney served as
Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis and as Associate Dean of the College of
Business Administration at the University of Cincinnati.
About the Authors xxi
Professor Sweeney has published more than 30 articles and monographs in the areas
of management science and statistics. The National Science Foundation, IBM, Procter &
Gamble, Federated Department Stores, Kroger, and Cincinnati Gas & Electric have funded
his research, which has been published in Management Science, Operations Research, Math-
ematical Programming, Decision Sciences, and other journals.
Professor Sweeney has coauthored 10 textbooks in the areas of statistics, management
science, linear programming, and production and operations management.
Thomas A. Williams. Thomas A. Williams is Professor Emeritus of Management Science

in the College of Business at Rochester Institute of Technology. Born in Elmira, New York,
he earned his B.S. degree at Clarkson University. He did his graduate work at Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, where he received his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees.
Before joining the College of Business at RIT, Professor Williams served for seven years
as a faculty member in the College of Business Administration at the University of Cincinnati,
where he developed the undergraduate program in Information Systems and then served as
its coordinator. At RIT he was the first chairman of the Decision Sciences Department. He
teaches courses in management science and statistics, as well as graduate courses in regres-
sion and decision analysis.
Professor Williams is the coauthor of 11 textbooks in the areas of management science,
statistics, production and operations management, and mathematics. He has been a consultant
for numerous Fortune 500 companies and has worked on projects ranging from the use of
data analysis to the development of large-scale regression models.
Preface
B usiness Analytics 3E is designed to introduce the concept of business analytics to under-
graduate and graduate students. This textbook contains one of the first collections of
materials that are essential to the growing field of business analytics. In Chapter 1 we present
an overview of business analytics and our approach to the material in this textbook. In simple
terms, business analytics helps business professionals make better decisions based on data.
We discuss models for summarizing, visualizing, and understanding useful information from
historical data in Chapters 2 through 6. Chapters 7 through 9 introduce methods for both gain-
ing insights from historical data and predicting possible future outcomes. Chapter 10 covers
the use of spreadsheets for examining data and building decision models. In Chapter 11, we
demonstrate how to explicitly introduce uncertainty into spreadsheet models through the use
of Monte Carlo simulation. In Chapters 12 through 14 we discuss optimization models to
help decision makers choose the best decision based on the available data. Chapter 15 is an
overview of decision analysis approaches for incorporating a decision maker’s views about
risk into decision making. In Appendix A we present optional material for students who need
to learn the basics of using Microsoft Excel. The use of databases and manipulating data in
Microsoft Access is discussed in Appendix B.
This textbook can be used by students who have previously taken a course on basic statisti-
cal methods as well as students who have not had a prior course in statistics. Business Analytics
3E is also amenable to a two-course sequence in business statistics and analytics. All statistical
concepts contained in this textbook are presented from a business analytics perspective using
practical business examples. Chapters 2, 5, 6, and 7 provide an introduction to basic statistical
concepts that form the foundation for more advanced analytics methods. Chapters 3, 4, and 9
cover additional topics of data visualization and data mining that are not traditionally part of
most introductory business statistics courses, but they are exceedingly important and commonly
used in current business environments. Chapter 10 and Appendix A provide the foundational
knowledge students need to use Microsoft Excel for analytics applications. Chapters 11 through
15 build upon this spreadsheet knowledge to present additional topics that are used by many
organizations that are leaders in the use of prescriptive analytics to improve decision making.
Updates in the Third Edition

The third edition of Business Analytics is a major revision. We have heavily modified our
data mining chapters to allow instructors to choose their preferred means of teaching this
material in terms of software usage. Chapters 4 and 9 now both contain conceptual homework
problems that can be solved by students without using any software. Additionally, we now
include online appendices on both Analytic Solver and JMP Pro as software for teaching data
mining so that instructors can choose their favored way of teaching this material. Chapter 4
also now includes a section on text mining, a fast-growing topic in business analytics. We
have moved our chapter on Monte Carlo simulation to Chapter 11, and we have completely
rewritten this chapter to greatly expand the material that can be covered using only native
Excel. Other changes in this edition include additional content on big-data concepts, data
cleansing, new data visualization topics in Excel, and additional homework problems.
●● Software Updates for Data Mining Chapters. Chapters 4 and 9 have received exten-
sive updates. The end-of-chapter problems are now written so that they can be solved
using any data-mining software. To allow instructors to choose different software for
use with these chapters, we have created online appendices for both Analytic Solver
and JMP Pro. Analytic Solver has undergone major changes since the previous edition
of this textbook. Therefore, we have reworked all examples, problems, and cases using
Analytic Solver Basic V2017, the version of this software now available to students.
We have created new appendices for Chapters 4 and 9 that introduce the use of JMP
Pro 13 for data mining. JMP Pro is a powerful software that is still easy to learn and
easy to use. We have also added five homework problems to Chapters 4 and 9 that can
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Burr left the matter open, smiled, flattered, bowed, departed. Then, out from
his office committees began to make their way to Clinton with
importunities to stand. The personal friends of the stubborn old man were
sent to persuade him. He was adamant. A scene at Burr’s home at
Richmond Hill: Present, the nominating committee and Clinton. A mass
movement on Clinton—he would not budge. Then Burr’s master-stroke. A
community had a right to draft a man in a crisis—the crisis was at hand.
Without his consent they would nominate him. The rebellious veteran,
flattered, agreed not to repudiate the nomination. The victory was Burr’s—
and Jefferson’s.
A little later, the press announced that a meeting of the Democrats had
been held at the home of J. Adams, Jr., at 68 William Street, where the
Assembly ticket had been put up. Spirited resolutions were adopted. The
enthusiasm of the Jeffersonians reached fever heat. Hamilton and the
Federalists were paralyzed with amazement. The impossible had happened.
Against Hamilton’s mediocre tools—this ticket, composed of commanding
figures of national repute![1729] Immediately the frantic fears of the
Federalists were manifest in the efforts of ‘Portius’ in the ‘Commercial
Advertiser’ to frighten the party into action. Jefferson had become a
possibility—the author of the Mazzei letter! Clinton and Gates candidates
for the Assembly! Old men laden with honors who had retired, in harness
again! Clearly no office lured them—it must be the magnitude of the issue.
And who were Clinton, Gates, and Osgood? Enemies of the Constitution!
To your tents, O Federalists![1730] A few days later the merchants met at the
Tontine Coffee-House to endorse the Hamiltonian ticket because ‘the
election is peculiarly important to the mercantile interests.’[1731] In the ‘Pig
Pen’ the Tammanyites read of the action of the merchants, clicked their
glasses, and rejoiced. Hamilton, now thoroughly alarmed, redoubled his
efforts. The Federalist press began to teem with hysterical attacks on
Jefferson, Madison, and Clinton—men who were planning the destruction
of the Government.[1732]
Meanwhile, Burr, calm, confident, suave, silent, was giving New York
City its first example of practical politics. Money was needed—he formed a
finance committee to collect funds. Solicitors went forth to wealthy
members of the party to demand certain amounts—determined upon by
Burr. It was a master psychologist who scanned the subscription lists. One
parsimonious rich man was down for one hundred dollars.
‘Strike his name off,’ said Burr. ‘You will not get the money and ... his
exertions will cease and you will not see him at the polls.’
Another name—that of a lazy man liberal with donations. ‘Double the
amount and tell him no labor will be expected of him.’
With infinite care Burr card-indexed every voter in the city, his political
history, his present disposition, his temperament, his habits, his state of
health, the exertions probably necessary to get him to the polls. The people
had to be aroused—Burr organized precinct and ward meetings, sent
speakers, addressed them himself. And while Burr was working, the
lowliest too were working on the lowliest. One evening ‘a large corpulent
person with something of the appearance of Sir John Falstaff’ was seen in
the lobby of a theater ‘haranguing an old black man who sells peanuts and
apples to come forward and vote the Republican ticket.’
‘You pay heavy taxes this year.’
‘Yes, Massa, me pay ten dollars.’
‘Well, if you vote the Republican ticket you will have little or no taxes to
pay next year; for if we Republicans succeed, the standing army will be
disbanded, which cost us almost a million of money last year.’
The peanut vendor promised to appear at the polls ‘with six more free-
born sons of the African race.’[1733] Whereupon the campaigner had a tale
to tell to the boys at the Wigwam that night.
The polls opened on April 29th and closed at sunset on May 2d. Days of
intense ceaseless activity. Hamilton and Burr took the field. From one
polling-place to another they rushed to harangue the voters. When they met,
they treated each other with courtly courtesy. Handbills were put out,
flooding the city during the voting. In the midst of the fight Matthew L.
Davis found time at midnight to send a hasty report to Gallatin in
Philadelphia. ‘This day he [Burr] has remained at the polls of the Seventh
ward ten hours without intermission. Pardon this hasty scrawl. I have not
ate for fifteen hours.’[1734] The result was a sweeping triumph for the
Democrats. When the news reached the Senate at Philadelphia, the
Federalists were so depressed and the Democrats so jubilant that the
transaction of business was impossible, and it adjourned.[1735]
Hamilton was stunned, and ready for trickery to retrieve the lost battle.
The next night he was presiding over a secret meeting of Federalists where
it was agreed to ask Governor Jay to call an extra session of the Legislature
to deprive that body of the power to choose electors. Hamilton approached
Jay in a letter. ‘In times like these,’ he wrote, ‘it will not do to be over-
scrupulous.’ There should be no objections to ‘taking of legal and
constitutional steps to prevent an atheist in religion and a fanatic in politics
from getting possession of the helm of state.’[1736] Jay read the letter with
astonishment, made a notation that it was a plan to serve a party purpose,
and buried it in the archives. It was the blackest blot on Hamilton’s record.
That victory elected Jefferson.
It destroyed Hamilton—and it made Burr Vice-President.
Scarcely had the polls closed when Burr’s friends, giving him the whole
credit, as he deserved, began to urge on the leaders in Philadelphia his
selection for the Vice-Presidency. Davis wrote Gallatin that the Democrats
of New York were bent on Burr.[1737] Admiral James Nicholas, the father-
in-law of Gallatin, wrote that the triumph was a miraculous ‘intervention of
Supreme Power and our friend Burr, the agent.’ It was his ‘generalship,
perseverance, industry, and execution’ that did it, and he deserved ‘anything
and everything of his country.’ He had won ‘at the risk of his life.’[1738] On
May 12th Gallatin wrote his wife: ‘We had last night a very large meeting
of Republicans, in which it was unanimously agreed to support Burr for
Vice-President.’
That was a bitter month for the Federalists. In the gubernatorial contests
in New Hampshire and Massachusetts the Democrats had polled an
astonishing vote. Painfully labored were the efforts of the Federalist press to
explain these remarkable accessions. The ‘Centinel’ in Boston had
previously sounded a note of warning under the caption, ‘Americans, Why
Sleep Ye?’ The Democrats, it said, were ‘organized, officered, accoutered,
provided, and regularly paid.’ They were ‘systematized in all points.’ In
Pennsylvania a Jeffersonian Governor had thrown Federalist office-holders
‘headlong from their posts.’ In New Hampshire the Democrats were
fighting ‘under cover of an ambuscade.’ In all States new Jeffersonian
presses were established, ‘from Portsmouth in New Hampshire to Savannah
in Georgia,’ through which ‘the orders of Generals of the faction are
transmitted with professional punctuality; which presses serve as a
sounding board to the notes that issue through that great speaking trumpet
of the Devil, the Philadelphia Aurora.’ Did not Duane get the enormous
salary of eight hundred dollars a year? ‘Why Sleep Ye?’
Dismayed, disgruntled with Adams, but afraid to reject him openly, the
Federalist caucus convened in Philadelphia and selected Charles
Cotesworth Pinckney as his running mate with the idea of electing him to
the Presidency through treachery to Adams.
When Adams learned of the Federalist defeat in New York, he

momentarily went to pieces. His suspicious mind instantly saw in his
humiliation the hand of Hamilton and his supporters. He had long been
cognizant of the treachery about him, in his official household. On the
morning of May 5th, McHenry received a note from the house on Market
Street: ‘The President requests Mr. McHenry’s company for one minute.’
As the poet-politician walked up Market Street in response that spring
morning, he could not have conceived of any other issue than a brief
discussion of some departmental matter. Only a few weeks before he had,
with Adams’s knowledge, arranged for a house at Georgetown, and for the
removal of his family thither.[1739] As he had surmised, the subject which
had summoned him to the conference was a minor matter relating to the
appointment of a purveyor. This was satisfactorily disposed of. Was there
something smug or offensive in the manner of Hamilton’s messenger that
suddenly enraged the old man, smarting under the sting of the defeat in
New York? Suddenly he began to talk of McHenry’s derelictions, his anger
rising, his color mounting, his voice ringing with unrepressed rage.
McHenry thought him ‘mad.’ Washington, said Adams, had saddled him
with three Secretaries, Pickering, Wolcott, and McHenry. The latter had
refused to give a commission to the only elector in North Carolina who had
voted for Adams. He had influenced Washington to insist on giving
Hamilton the preference over Knox—which was true. In a report to
Congress, McHenry had eulogized Washington and sought to praise
Hamilton—the President’s enemy. He had urged the suspension of the
mission to France. The old man was spluttering with fury, and his disloyal
Secretary was dumb with amazement. It was time for him to resign.
McHenry beat a hasty retreat, returned to his office, prepared his
resignation, which in decency should have been voluntarily submitted long
before, and sent it in the next morning.[1740]
Having set himself to the task of ridding his household of his enemies,
Adams bethought himself of Pickering. Five days after the stormy scene
with McHenry, the austere Secretary of State received a note from the
President inviting a resignation. This was on Saturday. On Monday
morning, Pickering went to his office as usual, having been long
accustomed to ignoring or thwarting the wishes of his chief, and sent a
letter dealing, strangely enough, with his pecuniary embarrassments, and
refusing to resign.[1741] The letter had not been sent an hour before an
answer was in his hands. It was curt and comprehensive. ‘Divers causes and
considerations essential to the administration of the government, in my
judgment requiring a change in the department of state, you are hereby
discharged from any further service as Secretary of State.’[1742]
Hamilton, enraged at the dismissal of his servitors, hastened an
astonishing letter of instructions to Pickering. He should ‘take copies and
extracts of all such documents as will enable you to explain both Jefferson
and Adams.’ No doubt Pickering was ‘aware of a very curious journal of
the latter when he was in Europe—a tissue of weakness and vanity.’ The
time was coming when ‘men of real integrity and energy must write against
all empirics.’[1743] To McHenry he wrote that ‘a new and more dangerous
era has commenced’; that ‘Revolution and a new order of things are
avowed in this quarter’; and, with something of Adams’s hysteria, that
‘property, liberty, and even life are at stake.’[1744]
The news that Adams had rid himself of his betrayers, and found in John
Marshall and Samuel Dexter as successors men incapable of treachery,
made a profound impression. To Duane of ‘The Aurora’ it was a
vindication. Two months before he had divided the Cabinet into
Hamiltonians and Adamsites, with Pickering and McHenry bearing the
brand of Hamilton.[1745] Announcing the dismissals under the caption, ‘The
Hydra Dying,’ he described Pickering as ‘an uncommon instance of the
mischiefs that may be done in a country by small and contemptible talents
and a narrow mind when set on fire by malignity.’[1746] The Federalist
papers were hard put to sugar-coat the pill. The ‘Centinel’ cautiously said
that ‘the best men here have variant opinions on the measure’ of Pickering’s
dismissal.[1747] Three days later, it rushed to the defense of the humiliated
representative of the Essex Junto with the comment that the best eulogy on
his official conduct was ‘the chuckling of the Jacobins over his removal’
and the assurance that he carried into retirement ‘the regrets of all good
men.’[1748] The Essex Junto made no attempt to conceal their disgust.
Cabot, Ames, Gore, and Pickering were soon sending their versions to
Rufus King in London. ‘You are so well acquainted with the sort of
sensibility for which our chief is remarkable, that you will be less surprised
than most men,’ wrote Cabot.[1749] Gore wrote that the dismissal ‘produces
general discontent.’[1750] The delicate moral sensibilities of all these
politicians were much hurt because Adams had fallen into the habit of
swearing and using ‘billingsgate.’[1751] He was even speaking with
bitterness of the Essex Junto and the British faction, quite in the manner of
Jefferson. It was even ‘understood’ among the Hamiltonians that the
dismissals were the price of the alliance which had been formed between
Jefferson and Adams.[1752]
But Adams knew what he was about. He knew that a plan had been
made to trick him out of his reëlection. The scheme was bald, bold, stupid.
All the Federalist electors in the North would be urged to vote for Adams
and Pinckney; in the South enough would be asked to vote for Pinckney,
and not Adams, to bring the Hamiltonian Carolinian in ahead. Hamilton
was writing frankly to his friends in this vein, ready to ‘pursue Pinckney as
my single object’;[1753] while Gore was writing King that ‘the intention of
the Federalists is to run General Pinckney and Mr. Adams as President and
Vice-President.’[1754] When, in July, Adams appeared in Boston at a dinner
and toasted Sam Adams and John Hancock, the much-abused Jeffersonians,
as ‘the proscribed patriots,’ the Hamiltonians groaned their disgust and the
Democrats shouted with glee. ‘This was well understood by the Jacobins
whom it will not gain,’ wrote Ames.[1755] ‘The Aurora’ observed that ‘he
did not give the great orb [Franklin] around which he moved as a
satellite.’[1756] The rupture was now complete. When Adams was permitted
to leave Philadelphia without a demonstration the latter part of May, ‘The
Aurora’ was unseemly in its mirth. ‘Did the Blues parade? No? What—not
parade to salute him “whom the people delight to honor”—“the rock on
which the storm beats”—the “chief who now commands”? Did not the
officers of the standing army or the marines parade? The new army officers
are not fond of the President; he has dismissed Timothy.’[1757]
Meanwhile, the most consummate of the betrayers, Wolcott, unsuspected
still, remained within the fort to signal to Hamilton.
VI
It was common knowledge early in the spring that Hamilton would exert
his ingenuity to defeat Adams by hook or crook. ‘The Aurora’ declared,
March 12th, that ‘the party with Alexander Hamilton at their head have
determined to defeat Adams in the approaching elections.’ The watchful
eye of the suspicious Adams, who felt the treachery, unquestionably read
the article and heard the gossip. When, after the death of Washington, the
Cincinnati met in New York to select Hamilton as the head of the order,
Adams was informed that his enemy had electioneered against him among
the members. He heard particularly of the action of ‘the learned and pious
Doctors Dwight and Babcock, who ... were attending as two reverend
knights of the order, with their blue ribbons and bright eagles at their sable
button-holes,’ in saying repeatedly in the room where the society met, ‘We
must sacrifice Adams,’ ‘We must sacrifice Adams.’
Thus, when in June, Hamilton, under the pretext of disbanding the army
in person, fared forth in his carriage on a tour of the New England States,
no one doubted the political character of his mission. His purpose was to
prevail upon the leaders to give unanimous support to Pinckney and to drop
a few Adams votes, or, that impossible, to give Pinckney the same support
as Adams. The records of this dramatic journey are meager enough. It is
known that in New Hampshire he talked with Governor Gilman, who was
the popular leader, and ‘took pains’ to impress upon him ‘the errors and the
defects of Mr. Adams and of the danger that candidate cannot prevail by
mere Federal strength.’ He urged support of Pinckney on the ground that in
the South he would get some anti-Federal votes.[1758] In Rhode Island he
evidently encountered a spirited protest from Governor Fenner. The
Governor expressed the hope that all the electors would be Federalists, but
clearly gave no encouragement to the Pinckney candidacy, according to
Hamilton’s own version of the conference.[1759] There were other versions,
however, indicative of a stormy interview. The ‘Albany Register’ advised
Hamilton, in giving the story of his tour to the ‘Anglo-Federal party which
wishes to make Charles C. Pinckney President,’ to ‘forget his interview
with the Governor of Rhode Island.’[1760] ‘The Aurora’ followed in a few
days with a more circumstantial story. Hamilton had ‘warmly pressed
Governor Fenner to support Pinckney’ and ‘the old Governor’s eyes were
opened and he literally drove the gallant Alexander out of the door.’[1761] 3
But in Massachusetts, albeit the home of Adams, Hamilton could count
upon a cordial reception for his views, since it was also the home of the
Essex Junto. This was composed of the Big-Wigs of the party in that State,
all ardently devoted to Hamilton, sharing in his hate of democracy and
doubt of the Republic. For years these men had met at one another’s homes
and directed the politics of Massachusetts. They were men of intellect and
social prestige, intimately allied with commerce and the law. There was
George Cabot, the greatest and wisest of them all, and one of the few men
who dared tell Hamilton his faults. He was a man of fine appearance, tall,
well-moulded, elegant in his manners, aristocratic in his bearing, earnest but
never vehement in conversation; a man of wealth, and a merchant.[1762]
There was Fisher Ames, brilliant, vivacious, smiling, cynical, eloquent,
exclusive in his social tastes, and wealthy. There was Theophilus Parsons,
learned in the law, contemptuous of public opinion and democracy,
reactionary beyond most of his conservative contemporaries, more
concerned with property than with human rights. Tall, slender, cold in his
manner, colder in his reasoning, he stood out among the other members of
the Junto because of his slovenliness in dress. Among his friends, at the
dinner table, he was a brilliant conversationalist, for he liked nothing better
than to eat and drink, talk and laugh, unless it was to smoke, chew tobacco,
and use snuff.[1763] He was the personification of the political intolerance
of his class. There, too, was Stephen Higginson, one of the wealthiest and
most cultured merchants of his day, a handsome figure of a man who took
infinite pains with his toilet and always carried a gold-headed cane. Given
to writing for the press, he made ferocious attacks on John Hancock under
the nom-de-plume of ‘Laco,’ and the truckmen on State Street whom he
passed on his way to business taught a parrot to cry, ‘Hurrah for Hancock;
damn Laco.’ So intolerant and bigoted was his household that a child,
hearing a visitor suggest that a Democrat might be honest, was shocked.
[1764] There also was John Lowell, able lawyer, cultured, ultra-conservative,
disdainful of democracy; and there was Christopher Gore, who amassed a
fortune in speculation, and held a brilliant position at the Bar. A striking
figure he was, when he appeared at the unconventional meetings of the
group, tall, stout, with black eyes and florid complexion, his hair tied
behind and dressed with powder, courtly in his manners, eloquent in speech,
utterly intolerant in his Federalism, and completely devoted to Hamilton’s
policies.[1765] These and their satellites were Hamilton’s Boston friends;
more, they were the backbone of his personal organization, his shock
troops. Thus, when he crossed into Massachusetts on his tour, he was going
to his own with the knowledge that they would receive him gladly—and
they did.
Reaching Boston on Saturday evening, he conferred with his friends, and
on Sunday ‘attended divine services at the Rev. Mr. Kirkland’s.’ On
Monday a dinner was given in his honor, where, the party paper insisted,
‘the company was the most respectable ever assembled in the town on a
similar occasion.’ General Lincoln presided. Higginson and Major Russell
of the ‘Centinel’ were vice-presidents. Governor Strong, the Lieutenant-
Governor, the Speaker of the House, Chief Justice Dana, Ames, Cabot,
several members of Congress, and members of ‘the Reverend Clergy’ sat
about the boards. ‘The tables were loaded with every dainty the season
affords and every luxury which could be procured.’[1766] It appears that
some Adamsites or Jeffersonians declined to do homage, for we find the
‘Centinel’ commenting that ‘had a certain citizen known that General
Hamilton resembled his demi-god, Bonaparte, instead of refusing a ticket to
the dinner he would have solicited the honor of kissing—his hand.’[1767]
The Hamiltonians were clearly delighted with the occasion; Hamilton
himself expanded and talked with freedom in the friendly atmosphere. He
talked for Pinckney and against Adams; and in an especially expansive
moment, dwelling on the sinister presumption of democracy, said that
within four years ‘he would either lose his head or be the leader of a
triumphant army.’ The dinner over, the conference concluded, he made an
inspection of Fort Independence on Castle Island, and was on his way,
accompanied ‘as far as Lynn by a cavalcade of citizens.’[1768] Everything
had been carried off with becoming éclat, for had he not stayed at ‘the
elegant boarding house of Mrs. Carter?’[1769] Unhappily the carriage in
which he rode with the ‘cavalcade’ broke down in the middle of the street,
[1770] to the delight of the Jacobins, but his composure gave his followers
much satisfaction.
Had not the Adamsites implied that he had received the cold shoulder
elsewhere in Massachusetts we might never have known his activities
beyond Lynn. He was ‘everywhere welcomed with unequivocable marks of
respect, cordiality, and friendship.’ He dined in Salem with Mr. Pickman,
‘drank tea at Ipswich,’ arrived at Davenport’s late in the evening, departed
early in the morning for Portsmouth, and reached Newburyport on Sunday.
That is the reason there was no demonstration there. But there in the
evening he stayed with Parsons ‘in company with some of the most
respectable gentlemen of the town.’[1771]
But Hamilton and the Junto were not soon to hear the last of that tour.
The Democrats harped incessantly on the promise to lose his head or be the
leader of a triumphant army. ‘We have often heard of a French gasconade,’
said ‘The Aurora,’ ‘but we have now to place alongside of it a Creole
gasconade in America. Alexander Hamilton leading an army to effect a
Revolution! Why, the very idea is as pregnant with laughter as if we were to
be told of Sir John Falstaff’s military achievements.’[1772] ‘Manlius’ rushed
to the attack, ostensibly in behalf of Adams, in the ‘Chronicle.’ Why this
trip to ‘disband the army’? Had Hamilton ever been in the camp before?
Had he appeared ‘to plant the seed of distrust in the bosom of the troops?
against Adams?’ And what a painful effect upon the great men of Boston!
‘Your personal appearance threw poor Cabot into the shade. Even what had
been deemed eloquence in the smiling Ames was soon reduced to
commentary; and so petrifying was your power that our District Judge has
scarcely since dared to report an assertion from his Magnus Apollo of
Brookline, either on politics or banking.’ And lose his head or lead a
triumphant army if Pinckney were not elected? ‘Your vanity was more gross
than even your ignorance of the characters of the people of the eastern
States.’[1773] Two months later, the echoes were still heard. The Reverend
Mr. Kirkland, flattered by Hamilton’s cultivation and ingratiation, and
young, not content with indiscreetly repeating Hamilton’s observations
made in company, rushed into the papers with an attack on Adams and a
glorification of Hamilton. What a disgrace to the clergy, wrote ‘No
Politician,’ for this flattered youth ‘to vindicate the character of a confessed
adulterer, and artfully to sap the well-earned reputation of President
Adams.’[1774] Even King heard from a Bostonian that Hamilton ‘in his
mode of handling [political themes] did not appear to be the great General
which his great talents designate him.’[1775] But Hamilton made his
observations and reached his conclusions—that the leaders of the first order
were in a mood to repudiate Adams, but that those of the second order,
more numerous, were almost solidly for him. He merely changed his
tactics.
CHAPTER XX
HAMILTON’S RAMPAGE
F INDING that persuasion had failed to shake the fidelity of the second-
class leaders, Hamilton bethought himself of coercion. The moment he
returned to New York, he wrote Charles Carroll of Carrollton proposing
to ‘oppose their fears to their prejudices,’ by having the Middle States
declare that they would not support Adams at all. Thus they might be
‘driven to support Pinckney.’ Both New Jersey and Connecticut, he thought,
might agree to the plan, since in both places Adams’s popularity was on the
wane. In any event, it was not ‘advisable that Maryland should be too
deeply pledged to the support of Mr. Adams.’[1776] The effect on Carroll
was all that could have been desired. Two months later, an emissary of
McHenry’s, sent to interview the venerable patriot, found that he considered
Adams ‘totally unfit for the office of President, and would support ... the
election of General Pinckney.’[1777] Throughout the summer the leaders in
the inner circle of the Hamiltonian conspirators were busy with their pens.
Richard Stockton urged on Wolcott the wisdom of making a secret fight.
‘Prudent silence ... get in our tickets of electors ... they will be men who
will do right in the vote ... and Mr. Pinckney will be the man of their
choice.’[1778]
No one was deeper in the business than Wolcott, who, holding on to his
position, and presenting a suave, unblushing front to his chief, was writing
feverishly to the leaders of the conspiracy. While Hamilton was receiving
the homage of his New England idolaters in June, Wolcott was writing
Cabot that ‘if General Pinckney is not elected all good men will have cause
to regret the inactivity of the Federal party.’[1779] In July he was writing
McHenry that if ‘you will but do your part, we shall probably secure Mr.
Pinckney’s election,’[1780] and to Chauncey Goodrich that good men
thought Mr. ‘Adams ought not to be supported.’[1781] He was receiving
letters from Benjamin Goodhue, presumably Adams’s friend, concerning
‘Mr. Adams’ insufferable madness and vanity,’[1782] and from McHenry
that ‘Mr. Harper is now clearly of opinion that General Pinckney ought to
be preferred.’[1783] In August he was assuring Ames that ‘Adams ought not
to be supported,’[1784] and in September ‘The Aurora’ was charging that
during that month he had declared in Washington ‘that Mr. Adams did not
deserve a vote for President.’[1785] Clasping Adams’s hand with one of his,
this consummate master of intrigue was using the other to wig-wag
messages to Hamilton from the window of the fortress.
But Hamilton found much to disconcert him. Albeit Cabot rather boasted
that in July he had not yet paid a visit of courtesy to Braintree, and probably
would not,[1786] he was writing Hamilton that to discard Adams at that
juncture would mean defeat in Massachusetts.[1787] He was opposed,
however, only to an open rupture. Noah Webster, having made a New
England tour of his own, and lingered a moment under the trees at
Braintree, went over to Adams bag and baggage.[1788] All but two of the
Federalist papers were supporting Adams with spirit. To prod him more, the
Jeffersonian press was pouncing upon Hamilton ferociously. ‘Dictator of
the aristocratical party!’ ‘Father of the funding system!’ Working
desperately for Pinckney, ‘continually flying through the continent rousing
his partisans by the presence of their chief, prescribing and regulating every
plan,’ was Hamilton, charged a Jeffersonian editor. Author of ‘a little book’
in which he ‘endeavors to give an elegant and pleasant history of his
adulteries,’ he added.[1789] Hamilton began to meditate a sensational stroke.
II
Meanwhile, the Jeffersonians, united, enthusiastic, thoroughly organized,

confident, were waging war along the whole line. The mechanics who could
vote, the small farmers, the liberals and Democrats, the private soldiers of
the Revolution who felt they had been tricked, the small merchants, the
Germans because of taxes and the proscription of Muhlenberg, the Irish
because the Federalists abused them and passed the Alien Law, were almost
a unit behind their chief. All the cost of the army and navy, and the frequent
outrages of soldiers with nothing to do, brought support. In North Carolina,
Gales, in ‘The Register,’ was using the camp near Raleigh as a veritable
recruiting point for Democrats. The eight per cent loan of that day and the
Excise Law of the day before were bringing great accessions to the ranks.
The growing indebtedness of the Nation, and Wolcott’s admission that
another eight per cent loan would be necessary, was making converts. The
scandals in administration were creating havoc in Administration circles
and driving Wolcott to distraction. The scandal of Jonathan Dayton,
Federalist leader of New Jersey, broke, and the hailstones beat upon the
head of Wolcott, who was the victim of his credulity alone. While Speaker,
Dayton had made written application at the end of the session of 1798 for
thirty-three thousand dollars as compensation for the House. That amount
was not needed. Wolcott’s plea that he did not know he had given Dayton
more than necessary was greeted with jeers. His assertion that he had the
right to expect the unexpended balance to be immediately refunded only
met derisive laughter. Not until the winter of 1799 was the discovery made
that Dayton had retained more than eighteen thousand dollars since July,
1798. Wolcott, discovering this fraud, summoned Dayton, wrote him a
sharp letter, and recovered the money—but not the interest.[1790]
Meanwhile, Duane, in ‘The Aurora,’ was devoting pages to affidavits
concerning Dayton’s notorious land frauds.[1791] Defalcations were
numerous, due, according to the apologists of the Administration, to ‘the
difficulty of procuring men of standing and character ... to execute their
duties.’[1792]
Then, to darken the picture for the Federalists, stories were afloat
corroborative of the Jeffersonian charge that they favored aristocracy and
monarchy. Again Adams appeared as the champion of kingly government.
Senator John Langdon, a reputable man, personally vouched in a signed
letter to the truth of the charge that, in the presence of himself and John
Taylor of Caroline, Adams had said that ‘he expected to see the day when
Mr. Taylor and his friend, Mr. Giles, would be convinced that the people of
America would not be happy without an hereditary chief and Senate—or at
least for life.’[1793] This was greatly strengthened from Federalist sources.
‘The observations of the President when he went through town [New
Haven] last, made more Democrats than any other thing beside,’ wrote
Timothy Phelps to Wolcott. ‘He told Dr. Dana he did not believe the United
States could exist as a nation unless the Executive was hereditary.’[1794]
The lesser lights among the Federalists were likewise contributing to the
Jeffersonian cause. Noah Webster was being vigorously assailed in the
‘American Mercury’ for saying that reading and observation had convinced
him that republicanism was impossible unless the poorer classes were
excluded from the vote.[1795] But the climax came with the publication of
the stupid pamphlet of John Ward Fenno, who, with his father, had been
editor of the Federalist organ for years. In ‘Desultory Reflections on the
New Political Aspect of Public Affairs,’ he clearly reflected the views of
Hamilton, to whom he referred as having been pitched ‘down the Tarpeian
rock of oblivion, not for subsequent apostacy, but for the very deed of
greatness itself.’ It was a slashing assault on Adams for making peace with
France. Glorious prospects had been opening ‘the doors of the temple of
Janus,’ but Adams had acted in a ‘puerile’ fashion. The masses were
denounced as ‘the stupid populace, too abject in ignorance to think rightly,
and too depraved to draw honest deductions.’ The patriotic Federalists
were, by Adams’s action, ‘by one sudden stroke in one short hour, beaten
off their ground, overwhelmed with confusion, and left abandoned to all the
ridicule and all the rage of their antagonists ... and nauseating nonsense,
meanness, abject servility, and the effeminacy of Sybaris now reign with a
pomposity undisturbed even by any casual exertions of genius or common
sense.’ Pickering had been dismissed because he ‘approached too near to
holding a divided empire with [Adams] in the hearts of the people.’ The
time had come to ‘repudiate the author of our evils.’
More: the form of government should be changed. ‘The continent
[should be] divided into ten, fifteen, or twenty counties, to be governed by a
Lieutenant or Prefect appointed by the Executive; certain subaltern
appointments should be in his gift. These Prefects would constitute as
proper an upper House for one branch of the Legislature as could be
devised.’ The franchise should be ‘cut off from all paupers, vagabonds, and
outlaws’—the poor, the democrats—and ‘placed in those hands to which it
belongs, the proprietors of the country.’[1796] This from the man who had
edited the Hamilton Federalist organ in Philadelphia. Copies were carried
about in the pockets of the Jeffersonians and worn out by readings in the
taverns.
On top of this, Federalist leaders, writers, and papers began to hint at
secession in the event of Jefferson’s election. It had become a habit. There
had been talk of secession among them if the State debts were not assumed:
talk again if the Jay Treaty was not ratified. Wolcott’s father had written his
son, long before, of its desirability if Jefferson should be elected. Four years
previously the ‘Hartford Courant,’ the strongest Federalist paper in New
England, began to publish letters by ‘Pelham,’ paving the way for the
secession of the North. The South was bitterly assailed. There were more
interesting objects than the Union, thought ‘Pelham.’ The time had come to
secede. A year later, ‘Gustavus’ began writing in the same paper on the
same theme. Jefferson was denounced as an atheist and traitor.[1797] In
1800, ‘Burleigh’ took up his pen to advocate secession in the event of
Jefferson’s election. In this case the author was known—it was the fanatic
John Allen, who, as a member of Congress, had charged Livingston with
sedition because of his attack in the House on the Alien Law. In his initial
letter he urged all Federalist papers to copy, and some did. The election of
Jefferson would destroy the Constitution, result in anarchy, expel
Federalists from office, wreck the financial system, and lead to Revolution,
for ‘there is scarcely a possibility that we shall escape a civil war.’ This
would be bad, but ‘less, far less, than anarchy or slavery.’ Secession would
be almost certain. Where would the boundary be? At the Potomac?—the
Delaware?—the Hudson? New England might have trouble if New York
and Pennsylvania were included in the Northern Confederacy. ‘They are
large, wealthy, powerful. They have many men of intrigue and talent among
them, desperate in their fortunes, ambitious and unprincipled.’ It would be
hard to get them to join a peaceful body and keep them quiet.
These were the leading political articles in the leading Federalist paper in
the most uncompromising Federalist State through the campaign of 1800.
[1798] In the ‘American Mercury,’ ‘Rodolphus’ replied with a stinging
rebuke. ‘He tells us,’ wrote ‘Rodolphus,’ ‘that if Mr. Jefferson is elected our
towns will be pillaged, our inhabitants rendered miserable and our soil dyed
in blood; that we shall have a Jacobin government, that the Constitution ...
will fall a sacrifice, and finally if the man of his choice is not elected, the
Federal Union must be destroyed and that the Northern States must form a
separate Government. The writer is a Federalist indeed.’[1799]
The Jeffersonians made the most of ‘Burleigh’s’ secession articles.
III
Nowhere were the Jeffersonian activities more annoying to the

Federalists than in New England where Federalism thought itself
permanently entrenched. It had reached its peak in 1798 during the war
hysteria, and the next two years were marked by a notable decline. The
activities of the defiant Democrats were intensified. Denunciations of the
‘aristocracy’ that governed, of the political meddling of the clergy, brought
the fight personally home to the leaders. In Vermont, where Lyon had been
persecuted and his followers aroused, the stamp tax and the extravagance in
government made a deep impression on the small farmers. It was a scandal
in the best regulated households that ‘Matthew Lyon and his cubs’ were
prowling about the highways.[1800] In Massachusetts, where Gerry had
made a remarkable race for Governor in the spring, the fight was being
made in every quarter, and Ames was wailing that ‘on the whole the rabies
canina of Jacobinism has gradually passed of late years from the cities,
where it was confined to the docks and the mob, to the country.’[1801] In
New Hampshire, the Jeffersonians had made an astonishing showing in the
gubernatorial contest in the spring, carrying a number of the towns,
including Concord and Portsmouth. There, under the leadership of John
Langdon, they had capitalized the refusal of the Federalist Legislature to
grant a charter to a bank which proposed to loan money in small sums, and
place credit within the reach of the farmers and the poor.[1802] Their defeat,
notwithstanding their heavy vote, encouraged them to persevere in their
attacks on corporations and the ‘privileged few.’
But it was in Connecticut that the Jeffersonians gave the Federalists their
greatest shock by the audacity of their attacks. There the Democrats, though
few, made up in zeal and ability for what they lacked in numbers. In the
home of Pierrepont Edwards, a Federal Judge and a foremost citizen, they
perfected their plans for the campaign. Aaron Burr spent some time in the
State assisting in the creation of a militant organization. A Federalist
complained in a letter to Wolcott that ‘the Democrats spent all their time
and talents for eight weeks endeavoring to persuade the ignorant part of the
community that the Administration was endeavoring to establish a
monarchy; and even good Mr. Edwards told them he had held an important
office under government, but that he had found them so vile and corrupt, he
was determined to resign the office.’[1803] Nothing could have been more
distressing to the aristocratic and clerical oligarchy which had long lorded it
over the people. The ‘Courant’ piously prayed that Connecticut would not
‘exhibit the distressing spectacle of two parties rending the State with their
reproaches and whetting their swords for civic combat,’ and held up ‘the
awful condition in Pennsylvania and Virginia’ as a warning.[1804] The ‘New
York Commercial Advertiser,’ founded by a son of Connecticut, was
disheartened at the effrontery of the Democrats. ‘Jacobinism in
Connecticut,’ it said, ‘has heretofore been confined to back streets and dark
recesses; but in consequence of the successes in other States it begins to
creep forth and show its hideous front in good company.’[1805] In
September the ‘American Mercury’ of Hartford was boasting through
‘Gracchus’ that ‘in many towns where there was not a man who a few
months ago avowed the cause of republicanism, the friends of liberty and
the Constitution have now a majority,’ although ‘in most towns there was a
fight.’[1806]
To Abraham Bishop, the fighting leader of the Jeffersonians, was left the
congenial task of whipping the Federalists to a frenzy. A graduate of Yale,
of which Dwight, popularly known as ‘the Pope of Federalism,’ and a man
of scholarly attainments, was President, he was invited to deliver the Phi
Beta Kappa oration at the commencement. It was assumed that he would
speak on some literary or scientific subject, but nothing was more remote
from his intentions. Very carefully, and with malice aforethought, he
prepared a scathing arraignment of Federalist principles and policies. At the
last moment the clergy discovered the nature of the discourse and
recommended its rejection. One indignant partisan wrote Wolcott that ‘the
Society discovered the cheat before it was delivered and destroyed its effect
so far as was within their power.’[1807] The ‘Courant’ explained that when
the invitation was extended, the members of the fraternity were ‘ignorant of
his sentiments,’ and of the fact that ‘he had been once desired by a
committee of the society to resign the presidency because of profanity.’ The
moment it was found that the wicked man had written ‘a seditious and
inflammatory libel on the religion and government of the country,’ it was
decided to dispense with the oration.[1808] But the seditious and irreligious
Bishop had no notion of being robbed of an audience. The ‘Courant’
reported that ‘with an impudence and effrontery known only to weak or
wicked men,’ Bishop ‘proceeded at seven o’clock to palm off on the public
the production.’[1809] More than fifteen hundred men, women, and children,
including some members of the clergy, heard him,[1810] but the ‘Courant,’
looking over the assemblage, solemnly declared it as ‘a singular fact that
every open reviler of religion was there and highly gratified,’ but that the
young ladies of New Haven ‘refused to grace an audience thus collected
and consisting of such characters.’[1811]
No more slashing attack was heard during the campaign. The audience
was sympathetic, jubilant. The orator in fine fettle, the subject to his taste.
He attacked the extravagance in government, sneered at the ceremonious
launching of war vessels, ridiculed the military pretensions of Hamilton.
The army had not fought, but had ‘stood their ground bravely in their
cantonments.’ The funding system had ‘ruined thousands, but ... has also
led up to an aristocracy more numerous than the farmers-general in France,
more powerful than all others because it combined the men of wealth.’
But it was for the political preachers of Connecticut that Bishop reserved
his heaviest fire. ‘How much, think you, has religion been benefited by
sermons intended to show that Satan and Cain were Jacobins?’ Then a
contemptuous fling at ‘Pope’ Dwight—‘Would Paul of Tarsus have
preached to an anxious, listening audience on the propriety of sending
envoys?’ After all, ‘the Captain of Salvation is not so weak as to require an
army and navy and a majority in Congress to support His cause.’ Then,
falling into satire: ‘Let no one imagine that I would represent the clergy as
acting out of their sphere ... for is it not said unto them, “Go ye into all the
world and preach politics to every creature. When men oppose ye, call them
enemies of God and trample them under your feet.” ... When the people are
assembled, say to them that the Lord reigneth on the earth in the midst of
men of power and wealth; that he delighteth in the proud, even in those who
are lofty; that he will exalt the vain, and lay in the dust they who are humble
in his sight; that the great are gods; but that the little men are like the chaff
which he driveth before the wind; that in the day of his power he will shine
mightily on those who are in power, and that he will make the people under
them like the hay and the stubble and the sweepings of the threshing floor.’
Immediately the speech was published in pamphlet form and sent
broadcast over the country. Editions were printed in numerous towns and
States.[1812] Within a week an answer had been published in a pamphlet, ‘A
Rod for a Fool’s Back,’[1813] but it failed to affect the popularity of
Bishop’s ‘Oration on the Extent and Power of Political Delusions,’ and two
months later, when he was at Lancaster during a session of the Legislature,
he repeated the speech on invitation of Governor M’Kean.[1814] It was a
palpable hit.
IV
And it was a hit, primarily because it was an assault on the part the
clergy was playing in the campaign. All over New England, and in New
York and Philadelphia, ministers were preaching politics with an
intemperance of denunciation and a recklessness of truth that seems
incredible to-day. The game of the politicians to picture Jefferson as an
atheist, a scoffer at religion who despised the Church and laughed at the
Bible, was entrusted to the Ministerial Corps, which did the best it could. It
was a line of slander that had followed Jefferson from the moment he
forced religious liberty and toleration into the laws of Virginia. The only
campaign canard of which Jefferson took cognizance was set afloat by the
Reverend Cotton Smith, who proclaimed that the man of Monticello had
accumulated his property by robbing a widow and fatherless children of
their estate while acting as their executor. ‘If Mr. Smith thinks that the
precepts of the Gospel are intended for those who preach them as well as
for others,’ wrote Jefferson, ‘he will some day feel the duties of repentance
and acknowledgment in such forms as to correct the wrong he has done. All
this is left to his own conscience.’[1815] But if Jefferson was content to
leave to their consciences clergymen bearing false witness, his followers
were not. When the Reverend Dr. Abercrombie of Philadelphia gravely
warned his congregation against voting for an atheist, Duane made a biting
reply. ‘He is the man who opposed reading the Declaration of Independence
on 4th of July last,’ he wrote. ‘Need we wonder at his hatred of Mr.
Jefferson?’[1816] When the clergyman, stung by the attack, made a weak
reply, Duane asked: ‘During the prevalence of yellow fever ... in 1798 on a
day in the house of Mr. Richard Potter in Germantown did you not provoke
an argument in which you supported monarchical doctrines and assert that
the country would never be happy until it had a king?’[1817] To another
minister, fortunately ‘the late Rev. Dr. J. B. Smith of Virginia,’ was ascribed
one of the most amazing stories of the campaign, that Jefferson on passing a
dilapidated church had sneeringly said that ‘it was good enough for Him
Who was born in a manger.’[1818]
When the Reverend John M. Mason published a political pamphlet under
the cover of religion,[1819] accusing Jefferson of being a Deist, and the
Reverend Dr. Lynn of New York, actively electioneering for Pinckney
against both Adams and Jefferson at the instance of Hamilton, printed

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Study with digital flashcards, listen to audio

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CHAPTER 2 Descriptive Statistics 18

CHAPTER 3 Data Visualization 82

Line Charts 102

CHAPTER 4 Descriptive Data Mining 138

Appendix 4.7 k-Means Clustering with JMP Pro

CHAPTER 5 Probability: An ­Introduction to

CHAPTER 6 Statistical Inference 220

6.4 Interval Estimation 240

CHAPTER 7 Linear Regression 294

7.5 Inference and Regression 313

CHAPTER 8 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 372

Combining Causal Variables with Trend and Seasonality Effects 404

CHAPTER 9 Predictive Data Mining 422

CHAPTER 10 Spreadsheet Models 464

CHAPTER 11 Monte Carlo Simulation 500

11.4 Simulation Considerations 532

CHAPTER 12 Linear Optimization Models 556

CHAPTER 13 Integer Linear ­Optimization Models 606

CHAPTER 14 Nonlinear Optimization Models 646

CHAPTER 15 Decision Analysis 678

APPENDIX A Basics of Excel 724

APPENDIX B Database Basics with Microsoft Access 736

APPENDIX C Solutions to Even-Numbered Questions (MindTap Reader)

Jeffrey W. Ohlmann. Jeffrey W. Ohlmann is Associate Professor of Management Sciences

David R. Anderson. David R. Anderson is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis in

Dennis J. Sweeney. Dennis J. Sweeney is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis and

Thomas A. Williams. Thomas A. Williams is Professor Emeritus of Management Science

Updates in the Third Edition

When Adams learned of the Federalist defeat in New York, he

Meanwhile, the Jeffersonians, united, enthusiastic, thoroughly organized,

Nowhere were the Jeffersonian activities more annoying to the

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CHAPTER 5 Probability: An Introduction to

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