Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Probability
Probability
New Spec
Paper 2 (AS) ........................................... Page 1
Paper 3 (A2) ........................................... Page 20
Old Spec
Statistics 1 ............................................... Page 46
Statistics 2 .............................................. Page 106
1. Manon has two biased spinners, one red and one green.
The random variable R represents the score when the red spinner is spun.
The random variable G represents the score when the green spinner is spun.
The probability distributions for R and G are given below.
r 2 3 g 1 4
1 3 2 1
P(R = r) P(G = g)
4 4 3 3
Manon spins each spinner once and adds the two scores.
(a) Find the probability that
(i) the sum of the two scores is 7
(ii) the sum of the two scores is less than 4
(3)
The random variable X = mR + nG where m and n are integers.
1 1
P(X = 20) = and P(X = 50) =
6 4
(b) Find the value of m and the value of n
(5)
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1
Question 1 continued
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Question 1 continued
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3
A B
0.1 C
0.2 0.2
0.2
The Venn diagram, where p is a probability, shows the 3 events A, B and C with their
associated probabilities.
(a) Find the value of p.
(1)
(b) Write down a pair of mutually exclusive events from A, B and C.
(1)
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Question 2 continued
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5
3. Two bags, A and B, each contain balls which are either red or yellow or green.
Bag A contains 4 red, 3 yellow and n green balls.
Bag B contains 5 red, 3 yellow and 1 green ball.
A ball is selected at random from bag A and placed into bag B.
A ball is then selected at random from bag B and placed into bag A.
The probability that bag A now contains an equal number of red, yellow and green balls
is p.
Given that p > 0, find the possible values of n and p.
(5)
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Question 3 continued
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7
Question 3 continued
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8
4. In a game, a player can score 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 points each time the game is played.
The random variable S, representing the player’s score, has the following
probability distribution where a, b and c are constants.
s 0 1 2 3 4
P(S = s) a b c 0.1 0.15
The probability of scoring less than 2 points is twice the probability of scoring at
least 2 points.
Each game played is independent of previous games played.
John plays the game twice and adds the two scores together to get a total.
Calculate the probability that the total is 6 points.
(6)
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Question 4 continued
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10
5. The Venn diagram shows three events, A, B and C, and their associated probabilities.
A B
0.10 0.30
y
0
z x
0.39
0.06
C
11
Question 5 continued
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12
6. A factory buys 10% of its components from supplier A, 30% from supplier B and the rest
from supplier C. It is known that 6% of the components it buys are faulty.
Of the components bought from supplier A, 9% are faulty and of the components bought
from supplier B, 3% are faulty.
(a) Find the percentage of components bought from supplier C that are faulty.
(3)
A component is selected at random.
(b) Explain why the event “the component was bought from supplier B ” is not
statistically independent from the event “the component is faulty”.
(1)
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14
7. Alyona, Dawn and Sergei are sometimes late for school.
The Venn diagram below shows the three events A, D and S and the probabilities associated
with each region of D. The constants p, q and r each represent probabilities associated with the
three separate regions outside D.
D
A S
0.1
0.1 0.05
p q
(a) Write down 2 of the events A, D and S that are mutually exclusive. Give a reason for your
answer.
(1)
The probability that Sergei is late for school is 0.2. The events A and D are independent.
Dawn and Sergei’s teacher believes that when Sergei is late for school, Dawn tends to be late
for school.
(c) State whether or not D and S are independent, giving a reason for your answer.
(1)
(d) Comment on the teacher’s belief in the light of your answer to part (c).
(1)
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17
8. The Venn diagram shows the probabilities for students at a college taking part in various sports.
A represents the event that a student takes part in Athletics.
T represents the event that a student takes part in Tennis.
C represents the event that a student takes part in Cricket.
p and q are probabilities.
A T
q p 0.40
0.05 p
The probability that a student selected at random takes part in Athletics or Tennis is 0.75
(a) Find the value of p.
(1)
(b) State, giving a reason, whether or not the events A and T are statistically independent.
Show your working clearly.
(3)
(c) Find the probability that a student selected at random does not take part in Athletics
or Cricket.
(1)
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Question 8 continued
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19
9. A company has 1825 employees.
The employees are classified as professional, skilled or elementary.
The following table shows
• the number of employees in each classification
• the two areas, A or B, where the employees live
A B
Skilled 275 90
Elementary 260 80
20
Question 9 continued
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Question 9 continued
Only use this diagram if you need to redraw your Venn diagram.
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23
10. A large college produces three magazines.
One magazine is about green issues, one is about equality and one is about sports.
A student at the college is selected at random and the events G, E and S are defined as
follows
G is the event that the student reads the magazine about green issues
E is the event that the student reads the magazine about equality
S is the event that the student reads the magazine about sports
The Venn diagram, where p, q, r and t are probabilities, gives the probability for each
subset.
G E
0.08 0.05 0.09
p
q r
0.36 t
S
(a) Find the proportion of students in the college who read exactly one of these
magazines.
(1)
No students read all three magazines and P(G) = 0.25
(b) Find
(i) the value of p
(ii) the value of q
(3)
5
Given that P( S | E ) =
12
(c) find
(i) the value of r
(ii) the value of t
(4)
(d) Determine whether or not the events (S ∩ Eʹ) and G are independent.
Show your working clearly.
(3)
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11. The Venn diagram shows the probabilities associated with four events, A, B, C and D
B
A C
0.07
0.24 p
D
q r
0.16
(a) Write down any pair of mutually exclusive events from A, B, C and D
(1)
Given that P(B) = 0.4
(b) find the value of p
(1)
Given also that A and B are independent
(c) find the value of q
(2)
28
Question 11 continued
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29
1 . The discrete random variable D has the following probability distribution
d 10 20 30 40 50
k k k k k
P (D = d )
10 20 30 40 50
where k is a constant.
600
(a) Show that the value of k is
137
(2)
The random variables D1 and D2 are independent and each have the same distribution as D.
(b) Find P (D1 + D2 = 80)
Give your answer to 3 significant figures.
(3)
A single observation of D is made.
The value obtained, d, is the common difference of an arithmetic sequence.
The first 4 terms of this arithmetic sequence are the angles, measured in degrees,
of quadrilateral Q
(c) Find the exact probability that the smallest angle of Q is more than 50°
(5)
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(Total for Question 13 is 8 marks)
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14.
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38
15. Helen believes that the random variable C, representing cloud cover from the large data
set, can be modelled by a discrete uniform distribution.
(a) Write down the probability distribution for C.
(2)
(b) Using this model, find the probability that cloud cover is less than 50%
(1)
Helen used all the data from the large data set for Hurn in 2015 and found that the
proportion of days with cloud cover of less than 50% was 0.315
(c) Comment on the suitability of Helen’s model in the light of this information.
(1)
(d) Suggest an appropriate refinement to Helen’s model.
(1)
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40
16. The Venn diagram shows the probabilities of students’ lunch boxes containing a drink,
sandwiches and a chocolate bar.
D
0
w
S 0.33
0.27
v C
u
(b) estimate how many of these 80 lunch boxes will contain a chocolate bar.
(3)
14
Given that the events S and C are independent and that P( D | C) = ,
15
(c) calculate the value of u, the value of v and the value of w. (7)
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42
17. A meteorologist believes that there is a relationship between the daily mean windspeed, w kn,
and the daily mean temperature, t °C. A random sample of 9 consecutive days is taken from
past records from a town in the UK in July and the relevant data is given in the table below.
The meteorologist calculated the product moment correlation coefficient for the 9 days
and obtained r = 0.609
Explain why a linear regression model based on these data is unreliable on a day
when the mean temperature is 24 °C
(1)
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43
18. Given that
P(A) = 0.35 P(B) = 0.45 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.13
find
(a) P(A′ ½ B′)
(2)
(b) Explain why the events A and B are not independent.
(1)
The event C has P(C) = 0.20
The events A and C are mutually exclusive and the events B and C are statistically independent.
(c) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the events A, B and C, giving the probabilities for
each region.
(5)
(d) Find P( [B ∪ C ]′)
(2)
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19. A bag contains 64 coloured beads. There are r red beads, y yellow beads and 1 green bead
and r + y + 1 = 64
(a) Find the probability that the green bead is one of the beads selected.
(4)
5
The probability that both of the beads are red is
84
(d) Given that at least one of the beads is red, find the probability that they are both red.
(4)
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(Total 13 marks)
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20. The Venn diagram shows three events A, B and C, where p, q, r, s and t are probabilities.
B
C
t
p
q
s
A
r
0.08
P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.6 and P(C) = 0.25 and the events B and C are independent.
(d) State, giving a reason, whether or not the events A and B are independent.
(2)
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21. The Venn diagram shows the probabilities of customer bookings at Harry’s hotel.
0
R
u
B
0.33
0.27
0.15
t
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(a) Write down the probability that a customer books breakfast but does not book a room.
(1)
(d) Find
(i) P(Dµ R ∩ B)
Of these 77 customers
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(Total 13 marks)
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22. A college has 80 students in Year 12.
(b) Find the probability that the student studies Chemistry but not Biology or Physics.
(1)
(c) Find the probability that the student studies Chemistry or Physics or both.
(2)
(d) find the probability that the student does not study Biology.
(2)
(e) Determine whether studying Biology and studying Chemistry are statistically
independent.
(3)
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23. In a quiz, a team gains 10 points for every question it answers correctly and loses 5 points
for every question it does not answer correctly. The probability of answering a question
correctly is 0.6 for each question. One round of the quiz consists of 3 questions.
The discrete random variable X represents the total number of points scored in one round.
The table shows the incomplete probability distribution of X
x 30 15 0 –15
P(X = x) 0.216 0.064
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24. In a factory, three machines, J, K and L, are used to make biscuits.
It is known that 2% of the biscuits made by machine J are broken, 3% of the biscuits made
by machine K are broken and 5% of the biscuits made by machine L are broken.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate all the possible outcomes and associated probabilities.
(2)
(b) Calculate the probability that the biscuit is made by machine J and is not broken.
(2)
(d) Given that the biscuit is broken, find the probability that it was not made by machine K.
(3)
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25. For the events A and B,
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26. The discrete random variable X has probability distribution
1
P(X = x) = x = 1, 2, 3, … 10
10
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27. A and B are two events such that
1 2 13
P(B) = P(A | B) = P(A B) =
2 5 20
(b) Draw a Venn diagram to show the events A, B and all the associated probabilities.
(3)
Find
(c) P(A)
(1)
(d) P(B | A)
(2)
(e) P(AƍB)
(1)
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28. In a large company,
(b) Find the probability that the employee is a car owner or a bike owner but not both.
(2)
(d) Find the probability that only one of them is a bike owner.
(3)
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29. In a company the 200 employees are classified as full-time workers, part-time workers or
contractors.
The table below shows the number of employees in each category and whether they walk
to work or use some form of transport.
Walk Transport
Full-time worker 2 8
Part-time worker 35 75
Contractor 30 50
The events F, H and C are that an employee is a full-time worker, part-time worker or
contractor respectively. Let W be the event that an employee walks to work.
Find
(a) P(H)
(2)
(c) P(W _ C)
(2)
(e) find the probability that a randomly selected employee uses the bus to travel to work.
(2)
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(Total 12 marks)
70
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30. A biased die with six faces is rolled. The discrete random variable X represents the score
on the uppermost face. The probability distribution of X is shown in the table below.
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X = x) a a a b b 0.3
(a) Given that E(X) = 4.2 find the value of a and the value of b.
(5)
A biased die with five faces is rolled. The discrete random variable Y represents the score
which is uppermost. The cumulative distribution function of Y is shown in the table
below.
y 1 2 3 4 5
1 2
F(y) 3k 4k 5k
10 10
Each die is rolled once. The scores on the two dice are independent.
(d) Find the probability that the sum of the two scores equals 2
(2)
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71
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Question 30 continued
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(Total 11 marks)
72
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31.
B
A C
0.1
0.1 0.2
p q
Figure 1
The Venn diagram in Figure 1 shows three events A, B and C and the probabilities
associated with each region of B. The constants p, q and r each represent probabilities
associated with the three separate regions outside B.
73
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Question 31 continued
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(Total 9 marks)
74
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32. A fair blue die has faces numbered 1, 1, 3, 3, 5 and 5. The random variable B represents
the score when the blue die is rolled.
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(Total 3 marks)
75
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33. Given that
P(A) = 0.35 , P(B) = 0.45 and P(A B
find
(a) P(A B)
(2)
(b) P()
(2)
The events A and C are mutually exclusive and the events B and C are independent.
(d) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the events A, B and C and the probabilities for each
region.
(4)
76
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Question 33 continued
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(Total 12 marks)
77
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34. (a) State in words the relationship between two events R and S when P( R ∩ S ) = 0
(1)
1 2
The events A and B are independent with P(A) = and P( A ∪ B ) =
4 3
Find
(b) P(B)
(4)
(c) P($ƍ ∩ B)
(2)
(d) P(%ƍ| A)
(2)
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(Total 9 marks)
78
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35. The following shows the results of a survey on the types of exercise taken by a group of
100 people.
65 run
48 swim
60 cycle
40 run and swim
30 swim and cycle
35 run and cycle
25 do all three
Find the probability that a randomly selected person from the survey
(e) find the probability that he swims but does not cycle.
(3)
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79
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(Total 13 marks)
80
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36. Jake and Kamil are sometimes late for school.
The events J and K are defined as follows
The teacher suspects that Jake being late for school and Kamil being late for school are
linked in some way.
(e) Comment on the teacher’s suspicion in the light of your calculation in (d).
(1)
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81
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(Total 9 marks)
82
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37. The bag P contains 6 balls of which 3 are red and 3 are yellow.
The bag Q contains 7 balls of which 4 are red and 3 are yellow.
A ball is drawn at random from bag P and placed in bag Q. A second ball is drawn at
random from bag P and placed in bag Q.
A third ball is then drawn at random from the 9 balls in bag Q.
The event A occurs when the 2 balls drawn from bag P are of the same colour.
The event B occurs when the ball drawn from bag Q is red.
Red
2
5 .............. Yellow
Red
3 5 Red
5 9
1 Yellow
2
.............. Yellow
5 Red
9
1
2 Red
..............
.............. Yellow
Yellow
.............. Red
.............. Yellow
.............. Yellow
(f) Given that all three balls drawn are the same colour, find the probability that they are
all red.
(3)
83
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Question 37 continued
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(Total 17 marks)
84
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38. An experiment consists of selecting a ball from a bag and spinning a coin. The bag
contains 5 red balls and 7 blue balls. A ball is selected at random from the bag, its colour
is noted and then the ball is returned to the bag.
2
When a red ball is selected, a biased coin with probability of landing heads is spun.
3
(a) Complete the tree diagram below to show the possible outcomes and associated
probabilities.
Ball Coin
.............. Heads
.............. Red
.............. Tails
.............. Heads
.............. Blue
.............. Tails
(2)
Given that Tom selected a ball at random and obtained a head when he spun the
appropriate coin,
(d) Find the probability that the colour of the ball Shivani selects is the same as the colour
of the ball Tom selects.
(3)
85
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(Total 10 marks)
86
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39. The Venn diagram in Figure 1 shows the number of students in a class who read any of 3
popular magazines A, B and C.
B
A
5
4 2
3
6
10 C
Figure 1
(b) Find the probability that the student reads A or B (or both).
(2)
(c) Write down the probability that the student reads both A and C.
(1)
(e) Determine whether or not reading magazine B and reading magazine C are statistically
independent.
(3)
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87
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(Total 10 marks)
88
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40. A jar contains 2 red, 1 blue and 1 green bead. Two beads are drawn at random from the
jar without replacement.
(a) In the space below, draw a tree diagram to illustrate all the possible outcomes and
associated probabilities. State your probabilities clearly.
(3)
(b) Find the probability that a blue bead and a green bead are drawn from the jar.
(2)
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(Total 5 marks)
89
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41. There are 180 students at a college following a general course in computing. Students on
this course can choose to take up to three extra options.
(a) In the space below, draw a Venn diagram to represent this information.
(5)
Students who want to become technicians take systems support and networking. Given
that a randomly chosen student wants to become a technician,
(d) find the probability that this student takes all three extra options.
(2)
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90
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Question 41 continued
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(Total 9 marks)
91
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42. On a randomly chosen day the probability that Bill travels to school by car, by bicycle
1 1 1
or on foot is , and respectively. The probability of being late when using these
2 6 3
1 2 1
methods of travel is , and respectively.
5 5 10
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.
(3)
(c) Given that Bill is late, find the probability that he did not travel on foot.
(4)
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92
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(Total 11 marks)
93
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43. (a) Given that P(A) = a and P(B) = b express P(A ∪ B) in terms of a and b when
(d) P(R).
(2)
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94
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(Total 7 marks)
95
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2
44. A group of office workers were questioned for a health magazine and were found to
5
2
take regular exercise. When questioned about their eating habits said they always eat
3
9
breakfast and, of those who always eat breakfast also took regular exercise.
25
Find the probability that a randomly selected member of the group
(b) does not always eat breakfast and does not take regular exercise.
(4)
(c) Determine, giving your reason, whether or not always eating breakfast and taking
regular exercise are statistically independent.
(2)
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96
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(Total 8 marks)
97
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45. A disease is known to be present in 2% of a population. A test is developed to help
determine whether or not someone has the disease.
Given that a person has the disease, the test is positive with probability 0.95
Given that a person does not have the disease, the test is positive with probability 0.03
A person is selected at random from the population and tested for this disease.
A doctor randomly selects a person from the population and tests him for the disease.
Given that the test is positive,
(c) find the probability that he does not have the disease.
(2)
98
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Question 45 continued
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(Total 9 marks)
99
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46. A person’s blood group is determined by whether or not it contains any of 3 substances
A, B and C.
A doctor surveyed 300 patients’ blood and produced the table below.
100
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(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen patient’s blood contains substance C.
(2)
Harry is one of the patients. Given that his blood contains substance A,
(c) find the probability that his blood contains all 3 substances.
(2)
Patients whose blood contains none of these substances are called universal blood
donors.
(d) Find the probability that a randomly chosen patient is a universal blood donor.
(2)
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(Total 10 marks)
101
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47. The following shows the results of a wine tasting survey of 100 people.
96 like wine A,
93 like wine B,
96 like wine C,
92 like A and B,
91 like B and C,
93 like A and C,
90 like all three wines.
Find the probability that a randomly selected person from the survey likes
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(Total 16 marks)
103
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48. Tetrahedral dice have four faces. Two fair tetrahedral dice, one red and one blue, have
faces numbered 0, 1, 2, and 3 respectively. The dice are rolled and the numbers face down
on the two dice are recorded. The random variable R is the score on the red die and the
random variable B is the score on the blue die.
(b) Complete the diagram below to represent the sample space that shows all the possible
values of T.
2 2
1 0
R 0 1 2 3
(c) The table below represents the probability distribution of the random variable T.
t 0 1 2 3 4 6 9
P(T=t) a b 1/8 1/8 c 1/8 d
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104
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Question 48 continued
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(Total 8 marks)
105
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49. A bag contains a large number of counters with one of the numbers 4, 6 or 8 written on
each of them in the ratio 5:3 :2 respectively.
(a) List all the possible samples of size 2 that can be taken.
(2)
A sample of n sets of 2 counters is taken. The random variable Y represents the number
of these n sets that have a mean of 8
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Question 49 continued
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107
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108
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(Total 10 marks)
109
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50. A bag contains a large number of 10p, 20p and 50p coins in the ratio 1 : 2 : 2
110
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111
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(Total 7 marks)
112
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51. A bag contains a large number of 1p, 2p and 5p coins.
(a) List all the possible samples of size 3 with median 5p.
(2)
(b) Find the probability that the median value of the sample is 5p.
(4)
113
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114
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115
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(Total 11 marks)
116
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52. A bag contains a large number of counters. A third of the counters have a number 5 on
them and the remainder have a number 1.
117
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(Total 5 marks)
118
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