Two of the National League's top squads will face off at Chavez Ravine this weekend when the Los Angeles Dodgers play host to the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Crew are in first place in the National League Central, with a 52-36 record. Their win total trails only Philadelphia & the Dodgers among NL clubs. That success comes despite losing manager Craig Counsell and ace Corbin Burnes via trade last offseason.
Under new skipper Pat Murphy, the Brewers have established a new identity. A team that, in recent memory, reached the postseason on the strength of their pitching, Milwaukee actually sports a fairly average staff this year. They've also endured a seemingly endless barrage of injuries on the bump. So in a stark contrast to those recent Milwaukee teams, they've had to rely upon their offense. In a very specific way.
The Brewers seventh in the league in runs scored (third in the NL), but only 19th in home runs and 21st in isolated slugging. So they're not as powerful a group as some of the other top scoring teams around the league. Instead, they're all about balls in play and baserunning efficiency.
Among all Major League teams, only Cincinnati has stolen more bases than Milwaukee's 120. Fourteen players on their roster have at least one steal, with five players notching more than 10. Brice Turang leads the group with 28, followed by Christian Yelich's 19. They then parlay that aggressiveness into success with runners in scoring position. Only three teams have a higher wRC+ with RISP than Milwaukee's 127 mark.
Which is why Will Smith will be an essential part of the Dodgers' fortunes this weekend.
Only Seattle's Cal Raleigh has thrown out more would-be base stealers than Smith. The Dodgers' backstop, though, has the highest percentage of runners caught stealing this year, at 42 percent. He's thrown out 19 out of a prospective 45 base stealers. Raleigh, in contrast, has only thrown out 32 percent.
So Smith has been extremely efficient in controlling the run game. Catching analytics also love him in that respect. He leads the league among full-time catchers in Swipe Rate Above Average and in Throwing Runs. The arm has been a legitimate weapon for him behind the plate.
We know the skill set is there. The Brewers, though, are a team that will push that to its max. If the Dodgers are going to contain Milwaukee's upper tier offense, they're going to have to rely heavily on Smith to control the run game to make it so.