Despite September being the traditional peak of hurricane season, experts at Colorado State University say the next two weeks are likely to be less active than normal.
“While we still expect the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to end up above average, we believe that the next two weeks are most likely to be characterized by activity in the below-normal category,” they said in their biweekly outlook.
They said that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has a 60% chance of being below normal when compared to the same time period from 1966 to 2023. It has a 30% chance of being normal and a 10% chance of being above normal.
Forecasters based their prediction on three factors:
— Current storm activity (there are currently no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic)
— The National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook: There are currently three potential tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin, but the two in the eastern central tropical Atlantic will likely be hindered by unfavorable large-scale conditions such as wind shear. The system in the Caribbean area could generate only moderate ACE, they said.
— Global weather model analysis: Global models call for an African tropical wave to roll out over the Atlantic in eight or nine days. Wind shear is currently strong over the Atlantic, hindering hurricane formation, but they suspect the shear will weaken by mid-September.
“With the exception of the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, large-scale environmental conditions look relatively unfavorable for the next ~7 days but look to get more conducive for tropical cyclone activity towards the middle of September,“ said the report.
The 2024 hurricane season got off to a quick start with three hurricanes by Aug. 14, but things have slowed quite a bit.
Forecasters have attributed some of that to tropical waves moving too far north while over Africa, and being crippled by dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert.
2024 has produced five named storms thus far in the Atlantic Basin, with three strengthening into hurricanes.
Hurricane Beryl, which cut across the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula before curving north and making landfall again west of Houston on July 8 as a Category 1 storm, was the earliest Category 5 hurricane in history.
If CSU’s forecast of 23 hurricanes for the season is correct, there would be another seven hurricanes before December.
