Who could be the next Tory leader? Six top candidates

Strengths: Three years of high office as home secretary. Allies will also point to the fact that she was not part of what followed and did not serve under Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak. She is popular with grassroots Tories and a friend of Boris Johnson.

Weaknesses: Patel’s tenure as home secretary was marred by controversy, particularly over allegations of bullying. Her friendship with Johnson may help with party members if she makes the final two but he is still disliked by some centrist Tories. Her friendship with Nigel Farage — she was filmed dancing with him at the last Tory conference — could also work against her, although she has said she would not let him join the Tories.

Popularity: 21 per cent; disliked by 43 per cent.

Bookie’s odds: 13-2

Kemi Badenoch, shadow housing secretary

Running? Kemi Badenoch launched her leadership campaign on Sunday evening in The Times. She spoke out against free speech and the freedom to dissent being curtailed, which she said was exemplified by Labour scrapping the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act. She called for unity in the Tory party, blaming infighting over lockdown restrictions and housebuilding for frittering away the party’s 80-seat majority.

Pitch: A pragmatic leader who can bridge the ideological divide between the left and right of the party. During the 2022 leadership contest she said that she wanted to “reinvigorate the case for free speech, free markets and the institutions that defend free people”.

“It is the truth that will set us free,” she said.

Strengths: With a gift for a soundbite and a combative attitude towards politics, Badenoch could be well suited to the thankless task of being leader of the opposition, where the struggle is to retain relevance against a government with a huge majority. She is also popular with the party’s grassroots which will be critical in terms of rebuilding morale and the Tories’ activist base.

Weaknesses: Badenoch’s style has also made her enemies. Some MPs describe her as aloof and question whether she would be a good leader in the Commons.

Popularity: 24 per cent; disliked by 13 per cent.

Odds: 11-8

Tom Tugendhat, former security minister

Running? Tom Tugendhat launched his leadership campaign on Wednesday evening in The Telegraph. He suggested he would be willing to leave the European Convention on Human Rights if it could not be reformed to benefit Britain and told Times Radio that what would unite the Tory party is “being absolutely ruthlessly focused on the interests of the British people”.

Pitch: A candidate with senior ministerial experience, but sufficiently distanced from previous governments. His foreign affairs and defence credentials are lauded by many in the party. He will seek to amplify areas where he differed with the former leaders, including voting against Sunak’s national insurance rise.

Strengths: Tugendhat is one of the few likely contenders who was not a cabinet minister. Allies say this is an advantage that lets him distinguish himself from potential rivals. With warnings of greater global conflicts in the offing, he can also say his background as a soldier and security minister leave him well-placed to be an effective opposition leader.

Weaknesses: Tugendhat’s stances on domestic and economic issues are less well known. He also drew some criticism after the China Research Group, which he set up, was found to have worked with a parliamentary researcher arrested on suspicion of spying for China.

Popularity: 13 per cent; disliked by 6 per cent.

Odds: 9-2

James Cleverly, shadow home secretary

Running? James Cleverly confirmed on Thursday that he had submitted his nomination form. He called for unity and said the party had “to get out of that habit [of] rowing amongst ourselves”.

Pitch: The first candidate to declare he is running is a loyalist who has served the past three prime ministers and risen above the infighting that allies believe was pursued by others. Cleverly is viewed as less factional and believes a lurch either left or right would only “narrow” the Conservative Party’s offer to voters. In a video posted to social media announcing his candidacy, the former foreign and home secretary said that the Conservatives needed to “re-establish our reputation as the party who, in government, helps grow the economy, helps people achieve their goals, their dreams, and their aspirations”.

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Strengths: Party chairman during the Tories’ 2019 election victory, Cleverly is viewed as popular with members and a strong media performer. He has held senior roles as home, foreign and education secretary.

Weaknesses: While liked by many MPs, his position as a centrist who backed Brexit may leave him struggling to win over both flanks of the party, where opinion is polarised.

Popularity: 24 per cent; disliked by 23 per cent.

Odds: 13-2

Robert Jenrick, former immigration minister

Running? Robert Jenrick announced his candidacy on Thursday morning. His campaign manager, the MP Danny Kruger, echoed other candidates’ emphasis on unity and said the party must win back the voters it lost “across the board but particularly to Reform”.

Pitch: Jenrick’s central pitch is that the Tories suffered a landslide defeat because they failed on the NHS and on the economy but especially on migration. He will attempt to become the candidate of the right but will argue that he can represent the centre ground too. He will highlight his own journey from being a staunch ally of Rishi Sunak to joining the Home Office as immigration minister, where he became convinced a harder approach was needed.

Strengths: Jenrick looks well positioned to mop up key supporters of Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, if she fails to progress. His allies believe that he will get enough support from MPs to reach the final two of the contest.

Weaknesses: Jenrick’s profile is lower than many of his rivals, although his allies hope that a longer contest will work in his favour. His hard-right approach to issues such as the European Convention on Human Rights may limit his ability to make it to the final two.

Popularity: 16 per cent; disliked by 19 per cent.

Odds: 7-2

Mel Stride, shadow work and pensions secretary

Running? Mel Stride told BBC Breakfast on Friday that he has been “fully nominated” as a candidate. Stride cited his experience in roles that “bring people together” — he was chair of the Treasury select committee and leader of the House of Commons — and said he believed he was “respected right across the parliamentary party”.

Pitch: Well regarded among Tory MPs, if not well known to the public. His pitch will be as a safe pair of hands who can rebuild the party without being seen as part of any faction.

Strengths: Tory MPs who believe that the party cannot win in 2029 might be attracted to Stride as a caretaker leader in much the same way that Michael Howard’s leadership from 2003-05 paved the way for a new generation.

Weaknesses: Stride might be many MPs second or third choice but appears unlikely, at this stage, to have enough ardent supporters to make progress in a crowded field.

Popularity: Not polled in YouGov’s last survey.

Odds: 40-1

Rules and timeline

July 24

Nominations opened for MPs wanting to stand for leader at 7pm. They will need ten named supporters and have until 2.30pm on Monday July 29 to submit these to the party. Those who get through will have the summer to campaign. Rishi Sunak will be acting leader until the contest finishes.

September 2

When the Commons recess ends, Tory MPs will have up to ten days to whittle down the field of candidates to a final four. No dates for the votes have been announced but they will have to take place by September 12, when parliament breaks up again for party conference season.

September 29

At the Tory conference in Birmingham, the four remaining candidates will get a chance to make their pitch directly to members and activists.

October 7

MPs will hold votes to reduce the four candidates to a final two, when the Commons resumes for the rest of the year’s sitting. Those two will face a run-off ballot of party members, closing at 5pm on October 31.

November 2

The winner and new leader of the opposition will be announced.