Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, not out of fear of NATO, but because he perceived NATO as weak and that installing a pro-Russian government in Kyiv would be easy.

ISW Russia Analyst Riley Bailey and Frederick Kagan examine how Russia has exploited the lack of US security aid to seize the theater-wide intiative in Ukraine.

Current US policy bans Ukraine from using US-provided weapons in Russia, severely hindering Ukraine's defense against Russia's renewed invasion in Kharkiv Oblast.

ISW Russia Fellow Nataliya Bugayova's testimony before the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe from May 16, 2024.

By Dan Blumenthal, Frederick W. Kagan, Jonathan Baumel, Cindy Chen, Francis de Beixedon, Logan Rank, and Alexis Turek

Latest from ISW

Iran Update, August 1, 2024

Iran and the Axis of Resistance are messaging that they will conduct a coordinated, large-scale attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel killing several Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent days. Senior Iranian security officials, including Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, suggested that both Iran and the Axis of Resistance will retaliate against Israel.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 2024

Russian forces conducted five platoon- to battalion-sized mechanized assaults in western Donetsk Oblast on July 29 and 30. Such localized mechanized pushes are likely the manifestation of Russia's forecasted summer offensive—Russian forces likely lack the wider operational capacity to mount a separate renewed offensive operation in Donetsk Oblast or elsewhere on the front this summer. Geolocated footage published on July 29 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced on the southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) during a reinforced-battalion sized mechanized assault.

Iran Update, July 30, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) likely killed a senior Lebanese Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut on July 30. The IDF Air Force targeted Fuad Shukr in response to a Hezbollah rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights on July 27. The IDF claimed that the strike killed Shukr while Lebanese sources said he survived the strike. A Saudi government-owned media outlet and a Lebanese outlet both also confirmed that Shukr died in the strike.