Uncertainty surrounding former President Donald Trump‘s sentencing after a New York jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his hush money trial is creating uncertainty regarding his presidential campaign.
But Republicans are optimistic that Trump’s campaign will be helped, not hindered, by his conviction, brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.
Trump’s sentence, scheduled to be handed down by New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan on July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention, will be stayed until his appeals are exhausted, according to Republican strategist Charlie Black.
“He will continue to be free on bond and campaign any way he wants,” Black told the Washington Examiner. “He can have rallies where the banner says ‘Woe is me’ and whine about his predicament.”
Trump and his attorneys have previewed a range of possible grounds for appeal, including Merchan’s refusal to grant the former president a venue change to the presiding justice changing the parameters of a defense campaign finance expert witness’s testimony, his instructions to the jury before their deliberations, and his alleged bias against Trump.
Black’s prediction downplays speculation Trump’s sentence could impede his campaign. For example, if Trump is sentenced to time in a state prison, with a maximum sentence of 20 years behind bars. His sentence could also include a fine or community service, even probation.
For Republican strategist Cesar Conda, any restrictions Merchan places on Trump’s ability to campaign will be perceived by the former president’s supporters “as election interference.”
“It appears that Trump’s conviction was of a low enough level that he likely will be eligible for a form of probation that would leave him free to campaign,” Conda, a former chief of staff to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), told the Washington Examiner.
Depending on Trump’s sentence and appeals, there will “almost certainly” be some impact on his campaign, according Northeastern University political science Chairman Costas Panagopoulos.
“But that doesn’t mean Trump will be unable to campaign altogether,” Panagopoulos told the Washington Examiner. “He could do so virtually or by relying on surrogates or in other, indirect ways.”
Republican National Committee Co-Chairwoman Lara Trump, Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law, has been asked about the campaign’s contingency plans regarding the former president’s sentence.
“We will have him doing virtual rallies and campaign events if that is the case,” Lara Trump told Fox News. “We’ll have to play the hand that we’re dealt.
“Everything has been stacked against him from the day he came down to the golden escalator in Trump Tower in 2015 and decided to run for president as a Republican,” she said. “Despite all of it, he always ends up on top. And this will be no different.”
A Trump campaign spokeswoman did not provide the Washington Examiner with any more details concerning those plans.
Panagopoulos, the professor, contended it is unlikely those “constraints” would affect Donald Trump’s campaign “dynamics” since it is predominately his most “ardent” supporters who attend his rallies.
“But it could scale back media coverage these events generate and opportunities to campaign with Republicans running in down-ballot races,” Panagopoulos said.
“That said, these GOP contenders need to think twice now about distancing themselves from the convicted felon now atop the Republican ballot,” he added.
As of Friday, Donald Trump has a national average edge of 2 percentage points over Biden, according to RealClearPolitics. That advantage could widen as Donald Trump and his campaign remain adamant that the former president is being politically persecuted, not only in his hush money trial but also in his federal cases, brought by special counsel Jack Smith, and his Georgia matter, brought by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis.
Regardless of what the hush money conviction could mean for him personally, including for his freedom, Donald Trump, his campaign, and his supporters have grasped on to the political opportunity by repeating that “political prisoner” message.
“President Trump’s conviction is widely viewed by Republicans as an overreach because of the unprecedented nature of using a federal underlying crime to support state charges,” Conda, said. “This conviction has helped him raise money and will further his argument that he is treated differently than President Biden with regard to how the courts handle allegations of impropriety.”
“This seems like a moment that has unified the party support for Trump going into this fall,” he continued. “It is a ‘rally around the flag’ moment for Trump.”
To Conda’s point, former Kansas GOP Rep. Tim Huelskamp claimed Merchan “hates” Donald Trump, “detests any American who supports Trump, and railroaded Trump just like they do to opposition candidates in his home country of Colombia.”
“Merchan will stop at nothing he deems necessary to defeat President Trump, be it jail time, home imprisonment, travel bans, or gag orders,” Huelskamp told the Washington Examiner. “This is not about a supposed crime or the rule of the law — this is about reelecting Joe Biden by any means in his power.”
Donald Trump underscored his campaign’s strategy during his first post-conviction press conference in the lobby of Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue, referring to Merchan’s gag order.
“We’ll play that game a little bit longer,” the former president said Friday of the order. “But you’re allowed to talk about it. I hope you do.”
Donald Trump and his campaign’s strategy has experienced success, at least considering their fundraising numbers since the conviction was announced.
Trump campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have described the conviction has having “awakened the MAGA movement like never before.”
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“From just minutes after the sham trial verdict was announced, our digital fundraising system was overwhelmed with support, and despite temporary delays online because of the amount of traffic, President Trump raised $34.8 million dollars from small dollar donors,” LaCivita and Wiles wrote Friday in a statement.
“Not only was the amount historic, but 29.7% of yesterday’s donor’s were brand new donors to the WinRed platform,” the pair said. “President Trump and our campaign are immensely grateful from this outpouring of support from patriots across our country. President Trump is fighting to save our nation and November 5th is the day Americans will deliver the real verdict.”
How Trump’s criminal sentence could affect MAGA rallies and 2024 plans
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