The 2024 presidential race has been frozen in place, with former President Donald Trump enjoying a slight lead nationally and in the battleground states since last fall.
While a lot has happened since then, including the felony convictions of Trump and President Joe Biden’s son Hunter, the movement in the polls has been modest at best.
Barring some unpredictable external event, such as a foreign policy crisis or natural disaster, or a health event for one of the elderly major party candidates, a few opportunities remain to shake up the race.
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The debates
Biden and Trump will meet to debate for the first time on June 27. They are scheduled to do so for a second time in September.
The incumbent goes into the debate facing questions about his age — he will turn 82 shortly after the election and would be 86 by the end of a second term — and stamina. Trump turned 78 on Friday and faces higher expectations, which could be to his detriment.
This is an early debate, before either candidate is their party’s nominee. That could help the loser minimize the electoral consequences of a poor performance. But if Biden stumbles, it will increase talk about Democrats pulling an “August surprise” by either replacing him at the convention or coaxing him out of the race. Vice President Kamala Harris’s poor poll numbers may serve as the ultimate insurance policy.
The conventions
Historically speaking, the state of the race becomes clearer once the two parties’ conventions have concluded. While political reporters pine for contested conventions or any drama whatsoever, in modern times, these have become extended television commercials for the nominees.
The Republican National Convention happens days after Trump is sentenced in the New York hush money trial. There have been reports, which some Republican officials have denied, that contingency plans are being made in case Trump’s sentence prevents him from being physically present in Milwaukee.
On the Democratic side, there are fears of protests and even violence. Progressive activists remain angry over Biden’s relative support for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza. Some call him “Genocide Joe.” Anti-war demonstrations and fights with police at the 1968 Democratic convention helped elect Richard Nixon by symbolizing a country in chaos. Post-9/11 conventions are much more difficult for protesters to penetrate, but the real action might be outside the convention hall.
Trump’s sentencing
The Democrats plan to lean heavily into Trump’s new status as a convicted felon. He will be sentenced before the GOP convention. A prison term or probation might become a hot-button political issue or even affect his ability to campaign.
Note the word “might.” When the judge in the New York case threatened Trump with incarceration over his repeated gag rule violations, he also made clear he recognized the significance of jailing a once and perhaps future president.
Trump’s multiple indictments helped him in the Republican primaries and had little impact on the general election polling. The same was true of the E. Jean Carroll and New York civil fraud verdicts. Trump’s hush money conviction appears to have been followed by a modest dip in the polls — he leads by 0.8 points nationally in the RealClearPolitics polling average — partially offset by increased Republican intensity and a boost in fundraising.
There is no guarantee that Trump’s sentence will alter the dynamics of the race or that this will be negative for him if it does. But we won’t really know until it happens.
Hunter Biden’s tax trial
Trump probably won’t have another of the legal cases against him go to trial before the election. Hunter Biden will in September.
Democrats will frequently repeat that Hunter Biden is not running for president. But his legal travails put additional strain on his father, and the possibility of a prison term would put some pressure on the incumbent to offer clemency, something the president and the White House have said they will not do.
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A major Democratic talking point will be that Hunter Biden’s trials undermine Trump’s claims that the justice system is being weaponized against Republicans. Republicans will bring up the first son’s shady foreign business dealings and tie them to the president.
An election between two highly familiar candidates who have both served in the White House may prove impervious to normal campaign dynamics. The cake could be baked. But if anything can change the parameters of this contest, these would be some possibilities.
