Before COVID-19, usual work access in the United States was reported by the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to be 84.9% by automobile (driving alone and carpools), 5.7% (working from home), and 5.0% (transit).
The pandemic changed much of this. With the lockdowns that began in March 2020, on-site working was severely restricted. The nation fell into a short recession as unemployment skyrocketed from 3.4% in February to 14.8% in April, the highest such rate since World War II.
Perhaps the most significant effect of the pandemic on employment was the huge increase in the number of people working from home.
This would not have been possible without the information technology advances over the past couple of decades. WFH Research reports that working from home accounted for 7.2% of work days before the pandemic and remains at 26.6% in May 2024, nearly quadrupling.
During the pandemic, working from home reduced U.S. auto commuting by 10%, according to ACS data. This gain required virtually no public subsidies.
Now, many workers are able to commute less frequently, perhaps once or twice a week or even per month. This has fueled a strong net domestic migration trend away from areas with higher urban densities to areas with lower densities, both urban and rural, as people have moved to larger houses with bigger backyards.
Overall, driving has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with increases in non-commuting times on weekdays and weekends. An INRIX report indicates that morning and evening commute volumes continue below their pre-pandemic levels. This has generally had a positive influence on traffic congestion since traffic remains below pre-pandemic levels in the most congested period, and the additional traffic is concentrated in times when congestion is lower, during mid-day and weekends.
Meanwhile, transit ridership remains a quarter below its pre-pandemic level for the 12 months ended April 2024.
These trends, more working from home and less transit commuting, have been difficult for the largest downtown areas. Before the pandemic, anywhere from 40% to nearly 80% of downtown workers commuted to their jobs in downtown New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Boston, Washington, D.C., and Seattle. Between 2019 and 2022, transit commuting dropped from 5% to 3.1%, a reduction of 2.8 million annually. With the drop in transit ridership, these downtown areas generally have fewer on-site workers and have experienced economic downturns.
Public transit’s failure to attract workers predates the pandemic and is principally due to its longer travel times and much more constrained job access. Commuting by transit tends to take about twice as long as by car in the areas where there is a transit alternative. University of Minnesota research indicates that among 50 major metropolitan areas (more than 1,000,000 residents), workers are able to access more than 50 times as many jobs by car as by transit in 30 minutes. Even in the New York metropolitan area, where 46% of U.S. transit commuting in 2022 was concentrated, drivers can access nearly six times as many jobs by car as by transit in 30 minutes.
One of the principal purposes of federal subsidies to transit was to attract drivers from their autos, in the hope of reducing traffic congestion and air pollution. Yet traffic congestion continued to grow, and air pollution was substantially reduced by improved automotive technology.
Greater job access is important. Economic research has concluded that productivity in an urban area is improved where more jobs can be reached in a fixed time, such as 30 minutes. It’s no wonder most people choose driving.
Major urban rail projects, such as light rail and subways, have received huge federal subsidies for construction. Yet these systems have not reduced auto commuting. Working from home, on the other hand, has reduced auto commuting.
The urban rail projects have typically cost more than projected, some much more. For example, both the San Jose BART rail extension in the San Francisco Bay Area and the Honolulu rail project have costs that have more than doubled relative to projections, and will be completed at least 10 years late. Further, recent research indicated a bias toward projects that were substantially more expensive than necessary in U.S. transit.
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Federal subsidies to such projects should be discontinued, not least because of the rising federal budget deficit. No new urban rail projects should be approved for federal subsidies, and responsibility for those under construction should be transferred to their state or local sponsors as quickly as feasible. New rail projects cannot be expected to achieve the traffic and environmental benefits that eluded them in the less challenging decades of the past.
The urban mobility situation in the U.S. has changed materially. It is time for this to be reflected in economic policy.
Wendell Cox is a senior fellow at Unleash Prosperity and was appointed to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission.
