3B Forecasting Methods

Übersicht

The Triple Billion Indices are calculated as a function of 46 outcome indicators. To forecast the Triple Billions to 2030 each tracer indicator must be forecast to 2030. For the few indicators where data is available the forecast captures the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Forecasts are generally produced in a two step process:

1. A “baseline” model is fit using 2000-2019 data to capture pre-pandemic trends and project to 2030 what might have occurred without the COVID-19 pandemic.

2. The baseline projections are then adjusted during pandemic years to account for disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic.