Sudan at a Crossroads: Addressing the Largest Internal Displacement Crisis in the World

By Estelle Erwich, Nandini Raisurana, and Joshua Peng

Einführung

Years of protracted crisis in Sudan led to a full-scale civil war on April 15, 2023, when fierce fighting broke out between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This resulted in the largest internal displacement in the world today, leading to the plight of more than 11 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and over 2.2 million refugees. As of June 2024, 24.8 million people were in need of assistance, yet only 7.1 million had been reached. Mass famine is imminent, and civil and societal infrastructure have collapsed.

While the Sudan displacement crisis and response to it are extremely consequential for Africa and the world, there has been a lack of global attention. A simple search on large news outlets shows huge disparities in media coverage. How can we close this gap and raise visibility of the humanitarian situation facing people inside Sudan? What are the trends on the ground for those working to deliver support and aid? How have regional and international bodies coordinated efforts to address the civil war and resulting displacement crisis? How can the US and other countries around the world help bring peace?

On July 18, the Refugee and Forced Displacement Initiative (RAFDI), in partnership with Islamic Relief USA (IRUSA), hosted a public event to address these questions. July 18 also marked Nelson Mandela International Day, which commemorates the life of a man who once said: “Those who live in exile as refugees have for long been sustained by their hope for an end to the conflict and the dawning of a better future.”

Opening Remarks

The event began with opening remarks by RAFDI Director John Thon Majok who noted the disparities in news media coverage of the crisis in Sudan, compared to other displacement situations. Written articles on the subject lag far behind the numbers produced for situations like Ukraine and Venezuela. Majok cited that the Norwegian Refugee Council had ranked Sudan as one of the ten most neglected displacement crises in the world. This lack of coverage contributes to low levels of humanitarian funding, a threat that becomes more acute as observers of the crisis note that “more people could die from hunger than from bullets.”

Majok asked the speakers to consider the questions of how to increase visibility of the crisis; to identify what is and what is not being done by different actors to address the displacement crisis; and to identify solutions for the root causes of conflict in the country.

On-the-Ground and Lived Experience Perspectives

Elsadig Elnour, country director for Islamic Relief Worldwide Sudan, brought a compelling on-the-ground perspective as a citizen of Sudan living through the crisis, and as the leader of a critical humanitarian organization navigating the delivery of aid. Elnour recalled that when fighting began in April 2023, people living in Khartoum believed the fighting would not last long. However, after a few weeks of sheltering with his family, Elnour realized he would need to move his family elsewhere. The difficulty he faced in moving freely to different regions was parallel to what he observed in the delivery of aid. Threats from armed men at checkpoints, destroyed roads and infrastructure, and unpredictable fighting patterns have severely restricted the reach of aid and relief services. 

While Elnour’s office in Khartoum was looted and occupied, the team continued to organize aid delivery from new offices in Port Sudan. Now, Khartoum has become a “ghost city.” At the same time, other regions and states across the country, such as Darfur, have lost all food infrastructure threatening imminent famine. IDPs have taken to sheltering in schools and other public buildings, not only disrupting education for children, but also exposing themselves to unsanitary living conditions. All the while, communications blackouts, diversion of aid, runaway inflation and a lack of financial infrastructure have crippled the organizing effort that it takes for humanitarian agents to reach isolated regions.

Myadah Kaila, International Programs Coordinator at IRUSA, also shared her experience. Kaila, a US citizen, was visiting her family in Sudan when the war broke out in April 2023. She faced great difficulty navigating to safe areas before ultimately reaching Ethiopia, from which she flew back to the US. At the time, 16,000 US citizens were inside Sudan, and their ability to leave was severely restricted by the destruction of road infrastructure and airports.

Kaila’s experience at the outbreak of conflict inspires her work to continue providing critical resources to displaced people within and around Sudan, including in neighboring countries such as Egypt and Chad. With IRUSA, she has worked to coordinate the delivery of food and water, healthcare, and shelter despite increased security restrictions. “My lived experience in Sudan deeply informs my work. Understanding the struggles and resilience of the people really helps me advocate more effectively and tailor our relief efforts to their need,” Kaila said. She explained further that “this connection is what really fuels my commitment in ensuring that our work is not just about providing aid but also about standing in solidarity with my people: the Sudanese people.”

International Response

Cameron Hudson, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Africa Program, argued that the US has become “irrelevant in Sudan” as interest from policymakers has dropped significantly. Though some may point to conflicts such as those in Ukraine and Gaza for diverting US attention, Hudson noted that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq did not undermine US efforts to address the crisis in Darfur in 2003. He pointed out that the current US administration is much more focused on “first-order” national security concerns and great power competition. At the same time, US leverage has diminished in the region with the rise of middle powers, many of which have picked sides between belligerents, thus enabling them to prolong the conflict.

Hudson noted that this is connected to a larger trend in US foreign policy of avoiding involvement in conflicts that do not seem to directly affect the US primary interests at home and abroad. He stated that the country seems to have “overlearned” some of the lessons from the past decade, such as the instability which followed the NATO-led intervention in Libya. Though the administration has appointed a Special Envoy to Sudan, Hudson noted that the Office of Special Envoy does not have enough of team yet, no high level interventions to assist him, nor does he have widespread public attention and support. “Without those ingredients, I am pretty pessimistic about what role Washington can play…in trying to bring peace to Sudan.”

In a similar vein, Oge Onubogu, Director of the Wilson Center’s Africa Program, warned against decision makers thinking of conflicts in silos. With Sudan on the precipice of state collapse, Onubogu discussed the wide-ranging impacts that an event would have across the continent. Many fighters within the RSF, for example, have cultural backgrounds linked to groups across the Sahel. “If we see a state collapse in the case of Sudan, where do we think these RSF fighters and the others are going to flee to?” she asked. “We are basically looking at a thread of instability across the Sahel region.” Onubogu also noted that, prior to the outbreak of civil war, there were many people from other countries who sought refuge in Sudan. Thus, the conflict has created twice-displaced people, adding a layer of complexity that cannot be addressed without a wider effort to collaborate with international actors, advocates, and the voices of Sudanese civilians themselves.

Bethany Holland, Associate Director of Humanitarian Programs at Airlink, brought the perspective of an international humanitarian nongovernmental organization (NGO) trying to navigate the complexities of operating in Sudan. Holland noted that, in comparison to Ukraine, funding and donor engagement in Sudan have been much lower. At the same time, the already limited routes for aid into Sudan have been impacted by air restrictions and the destruction of roads. She explained further that shifts in fighting patterns have added additional uncertainty to accessing cities and population centers that have been cut off by armed forces. Bureaucratic requirements for NGOs can shift drastically as control of different regions changes hands. 

Holland noted that private sector partnerships have been critical for Airlink to increase their capacity for response and awareness of the crisis more broadly. Shipments of cargo from Nairobi to Port Sudan can cost three or four times as much as the cost of shipping cargo from the US to Europe, while at the same time being inconsistent and irregularly scheduled. Greater private sector engagement can help reduce the cost of delivering aid to Sudan. Holland recounted a story about a successful shipment of medicine and health supplies to Blue Nile, explaining that “not only did this shipment deliver critically needed aid, but it also delivered hope.” The delivery showed recipients that a coordinated effort between international actors and regional experts was being made to take care of a community that until then had been closed off.

Recommendations

In addition to the current conditions in Sudan, lived experiences of IDPs, and challenges facing aid delivery, the panel also discussed necessary steps for creating regional stability and peace for the benefits of millions in and around the Sudan. This will require not only a redirection of international eyes and attention to the crisis, but a rededication of international and multilateral effort to address the conflict. In previous Sudanese conflicts such as the one in Darfur and the second civil war, the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) had led peace-building efforts, which were supplemented by the US and European Union (EU). Now, the absence of such international cooperation and AU-IGAD leadership is noticeable and creates a gap where other actors can negatively interfere. “The international system is not responding in the way it did previously,” Hudson said. “Regional actors and middle power actors are playing a much more dominant role... there is a host of countries who are playing a role in Sudan on both sides of the conflict and are helping to extend, prolong, and worsen the conflict.” 

Elnour agreed that the AU and IGAD must take greater roles in addressing the country, alongside political parties, which must do more to promote national unity and prevent state collapse. Both Elnour and Kaila reinforced the importance of foreign states ending their interference and promotion of the conflict on both sides. Onubogu reminded listeners that Sudan is a country that has seen at least eighteen  attempted coups and four civil wars since its independence and has a complex political-economic network between the military, state security, and government institutions. However, she noted, the Sudan that will emerge from this conflict will be entirely new. Young civilians have already taken initiative in organizing themselves effectively and creatively, and bringing their voices and perspectives to the forefront of rebuilding peace and a post-conflict Sudan is essential. 

All panelists agreed that access to safe humanitarian pathways for IDPs to escape danger and receive aid is a top priority. Increased leadership from regional bodies allows and protects unrestricted access for humanitarian organizations is needed. Actors must also not forget Sudanese refugees displaced to neighboring countries - increased assistance to those host and refugee communities is also urgently needed. 

Creating solutions for millions of Sudanese people and rebuilding peace in the region is a process which will require increased international attention, refocused action, and continued dialogue across humanitarian, regional, and multilateral sectors. The panel discussion provided a glimpse into the complexities and needs of the situation, as well as the possibilities for stability for the region and its populations, built with the voices and lived experiences of civilians and those directly impacted by the crisis at the forefront.