The proliferation and influence of out-of-state donors has been a trending topic in recent years.1 The Institute examined contributions to gubernatorial candidates from 2007 through 20142 to assess the role of out-of-state donors and discovered the following:
- Out-of-state contributions are on the upswing, but they often account for just a modest fraction of the total raised by gubernatorial candidates.
- The majority of direct contributions that crossed state lines supported the winner.
- Seven of the ten general election candidates who had the highest percentage of out-of-state contributions were incumbents who won their reelection bids.
- Prominent incumbents running in high-profile races received the largest increase in out-of-state contributions. Notably, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker enjoyed a whopping 2,873 percent increase in out-of-state money in just a two-year period (2010-2012).
Out-of-state contributions to gubernatorial candidates peaked in 2014 at $138.2 million. In 2010, the previous comparable election, candidates for governor collectively received $116 million from donors outside of their election jurisdiction. There was also a noticeable increase in such contributions during presidential election years, from $22.8 million in 2008 to $49.2 million in 2012.
The amount of out-of-state money going to gubernatorial candidates in odd-year elections varied considerably. In 2009, candidates in New Jersey and Virginia received $24.2 million of out-of-state money. Fast forward to 2013 and money in those elections nearly doubled, thanks in large measure to a group of national organizations involved in the Virginia race. Four states held gubernatorial elections in 2011 that brought in only $9.9 million in out-of-state money.
The annual totals suggest out-of-state money in gubernatorial elections is certainly on the rise, but these contributions are not overwhelming the races. One anomaly was 2013, when almost half of the money raised by the candidates came from out-of-state donors. The two elections that featured the most out-of-state money amounted to only 11 percent of all contributions in 2010 and 18 percent in 2014. Similarly, out-of-state contributions rose from 17 percent of all gubernatorial contributions in 2008 to 29 percent in 2012.
Figure 1: Contributions to Gubernatorial Candidates, Total vs. Out-of-State Portion, 2007-2014
As out-of-state contributions continue to grow, observers naturally wonder how fruitful these contributions have been. Since 2007, 61 percent of out-of-state contributions supported the eventual winner, while only 50 percent of in-state contributions went to successful candidates. While that is seemingly a good track record, the annual share of out-of-state money to the winners was not always that impressive.
Out-of-state donors saw the highest return on their investments in odd-year elections, except for 2009 when only 40 percent of the contribution total supported the winner. Less than half of all out-of-state money went to the winner in 2010, but that improved to 81 percent in 2012 and 59 percent in 2014.
Although there is no consistent upward trend in the share of out-of-state money going to successful candidates, those relying the most on out-of-state donations typically won the election. The Institute looked at contributions to gubernatorial candidates that reached the general election3 and found eight of the ten with the highest percentage of out-of-state contributions won.
Virginia Democrat Gov. Terry McAuliffe led the way in out-of-state contributions, which accounted for 68 percent of his total 2013 race against Ken Cuccinelli. Wisconsin Republican Scott Walker figures twice in the list: 60 percent of his war chest was filled by out-of-state donors in the 2012 recall election—the second-largest percentage since 2008—while out-of-state contributions made up 48 percent of his 2014 total.
* Candidate was running as an incumbent.
Seven of the ten candidates in the above table were incumbents, but that is not indicative of a trend in out-of-state contributions since 2007. A majority of out-of-state contributions went to incumbent governors in 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2014. However, a relatively low percentage of out-of-state money supported incumbents in big fundraising years like 2008 and 2010.
All told, the aforementioned data suggests a select group of incumbents was the favorite among out-of-state donors. Accordingly, the Institute looked at the five incumbents who witnessed the largest increase in out-of-state contributions compared to their previous campaign during the 2007–2014 period. These candidates collectively raised $51.8 million in out-of-state contributions in their reelection bids, which accounts for more than one-fifth of all such contributions to gubernatorial candidates during the three-year period in which they all ran for reelection (2012–2014).
Most of these incumbents would be considered household names. A few years before his presidential bid, Scott Walker collected $22.4 million in out-of-state contributions in the closely watched 2012 Wisconsin recall election, a 2,873 percent increase over his 2010 total. In 2014, Illinois Governor Pat Quinn more than doubled his 2010 out-of-state contribution total in a race against the most well-funded candidate in Illinois history running for a seat CNN deemed “critical” for Democrats to maintain.4 New Jersey Governor Chris Christie coasted to reelection with $4.3 million in out-of-state contributions, a 376 percent increase over his 2009 total, in a race that was largely seen as a precursor to his 2016 presidential run.5 New York Democrat Andrew Cuomo and South Carolina Republican Nikki Haley also saw a major influx in out-of-state money, both of whom are considered rising stars and presidential material in their respective parties.6
Figure 2: Incumbent Governors with the Largest Increase in Out-of-State Contribution Totals, 2007-2014![IncGovOutOfState](assets/Uploads/_resampled/ResizedImage600603-IncGovOutOfState.png)
* The reelection total for Scott Walker is referring to the 2012 Wisconsin recall election and not his 2014 reelection bid.
Political scientist Alan I. Abramowitz examined outside spending in U.S. Senate races by national ideological groups and determined it was likely the product of a recent “arms race” between donors, but hardly the deciding factor in the elections.7 It appears we are witnessing a similar trend for direct contributions to gubernatorial candidates: ideological and single issue groups are the leading economic sector supplying out-of-state contributions, and about one-third of such contributions come from Washington, D.C.
The rising tide of campaign fundraising means candidates will amass more money from any number of sources, including out-of-state donors. The Institute identified a relatively small group of candidates who stand out for their reliance on out-of-state contributors, including a star-studded group of incumbent governors, but sweeping generalizations should not be made based on these cases.
- 1. Whyte, Liz Essley and Ashley Balcerzak, “Outside groups playing bigger role in 2015 state elections,” Center for Public Integrity, October 1, 2015, available from http://www.publicintegrity.org/2015/10/01/18074/outside-groups-playing-bigger-role-2015-state-elections, accessed October 13, 2015.
- 2. The Institute analyzed data going back to 2007 to ensure there were at least two gubernatorial elections in every state, thereby allowing it to see if there were any trends. Gubernatorial data does not include lieutenant governor candidates running independently. Only major party candidates were included in the analyses to avoid idiosyncratic third-party contribution totals.
- 3. The Institute omitted candidates that lost in the primary election when analyzing the percentage of out-of-state money raised by specific candidates. This ensures that idiosyncratic percentages by primary candidates with modest fundraising totals are not grouped with prominent candidates nominated by major parties.
- 4. Caldwell, Leigh Ann, “5 gubernatorial races to watch in 2014,” CNN, January 2, 2014, available from http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/02/politics/2014-governors-races/, accessed October 13, 2015.
- 5. Miller, Zeke J, “Christie Wins Re-election in Landslide, 2016 awaits,” Time, November 5, 2013, available from http://swampland.time.com/2013/11/05/christie-wins-reelection-in-landslide-2016-awaits/, accessed October 13, 2015.
- 6. Condon, Stephanie, “As governors descend on D.C., spotlight’s on possible 2016 candidates,” CBS News, February 21, 2014, available from http://www.cbsnews.com/news/as-governors-descend-on-dc-spotlight-is-on-possible-2016-candidates/, accessed October 13, 2015.
- 7. Abramowitz, Alan I., “Why Outside Spending Is Overrated,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball, February 19, 2015, available from http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/why-outside-spending-is-overrated-lessons-from-the-2014-senate-elections/, accessed October 14, 2015.
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