Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Lancang River Basin Based on the Budyko Hypothesis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Data
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data
3. Methodology
3.1. Mann–Kendall Trend Test
3.2. Mann–Kendall Mutation Test
3.3. Budyko Hypothesis
3.4. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change
4. Results and Analysis
4.1. Trend of Hydro–Meteorological Variables
4.2. Detection Result of Mutation
4.3. The Climate and Catchment Landscape Elasticity of Runoff
4.4. Quantitative Attribution of the Runoff Change
5. Conclusions and Discussion
- During the period 1961 to 2015 in LRB, the precipitation showed a downward trend, but not statistically significant; the potential evapotranspiration showed an extremely significant upward trend; the runoff depth showed an extremely significant downward trend.
- The abrupt year of runoff series in LRB from 1961 to 2015 is 2005. Compared with the period before 2005, the precipitation, and runoff depth in the post–abrupt period decreased by 53.9 mm and 78.54 mm, respectively, and the potential evapotranspiration increased by 48.21 mm. Both the climatic and catchment landscape elasticity of runoff increased in absolute value, indicating that the water cycle of LRB became more sensitive to climate changes and human activities.
- Compared with the baseline period (1961–2004) in LRB, during the human activity period (2005–2015), both climate change and human activities have led to the reduction of runoff. The reduction of precipitation is the leading cause of runoff reduction, with a contribution of 45.64%, followed by human activities at 40.45%, and potential evapotranspiration at 13.91%.
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | P | E0 | n |
---|---|---|---|
Correlation coefficient | 0.71 | −0.66 | −0.58 |
F–test | 54.22 | 40.92 | 27.04 |
P Trend | E0 Trend | R Trend |
---|---|---|
−1.44 | 3.50 ** | −3.17 ** |
Period | P/mm | E0/mm | R/mm | n | R/P | E0/P | Runoff Elasticity | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1961–2004 | 898.52 | 962.62 | 401.38 | 1.12 | 0.45 | 1.08 | 1.61 | −0.61 | −0.78 |
2005–2015 | 844.93 | 1010.83 | 322.84 | 1.24 | 0.38 | 1.20 | 1.73 | −0.73 | −0.91 |
Elasticity | |||
---|---|---|---|
Z–Value | 2.56 * | −2.56 * | −3.18 ** |
Base Period | Human Activity Period | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1961–2004 | 2005–2015 | −35.49 | −10.82 | −31.46 | −77.77 | −78.54 | 0.76 | 45.64 | 13.91 | 40.45 |
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Liu, H.; Wang, Z.; Ji, G.; Yue, Y. Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Lancang River Basin Based on the Budyko Hypothesis. Water 2020, 12, 3501. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123501
Liu H, Wang Z, Ji G, Yue Y. Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Lancang River Basin Based on the Budyko Hypothesis. Water. 2020; 12(12):3501. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123501
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiu, Hao, Zheng Wang, Guangxing Ji, and Yanlin Yue. 2020. "Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Lancang River Basin Based on the Budyko Hypothesis" Water 12, no. 12: 3501. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123501