Global research firm Kantar predicts continued decline in demand for FMCG products in India

Demand for daily groceries, essentials and household products will likely worsen over next few quarters in India, global research firm Kantar said Tuesday, further deferring the timelines for volume recovery in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry after the slowdown became more pronounced in the December quarter.

Overall volumes, which indicate number of products consumers bought, expanded 5.2% in the December quarter, lower than 6.9% in the September quarter. Sales volumes in rural markets climbed 4.8%, and in cities by 5.6%, from a year earlier, data from Kantar showed. Kantar monitors branded and unorganised products, including unpackaged voluminous commodities. Nielsen, on the other hand, tracks primarily branded retail sales.

“We are likely to see another drop in the next quarter, and the current trend of slowdown is expected to stay deep into 2024," said K Ramakrishnan, managing director, South Asia, Worldpanel division, Kantar. "The mild slowdown we saw in the September quarter became even more pronounced in the December quarter.”

The deceleration in demand was primarily manifest in the foods segment, said Ramakrishnan. “Growth here stumbled to 5.8% last quarter, from a strong 8.2% in the previous quarter,” he said.

India’s price-sensitive consumer industry has faced a demand crunch after companies raised sticker prices by almost a quarter in the past two years to offset the impact of input costs, which first climbed in the immediate aftermath of global supply chain disruptions spawned by mobility and business curbs deployed to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Subsequently, record low policy rates in the world’s richest countries and the Ukraine conflict caused commodity prices to spike.

However, in the past three quarters, companies have been slashing prices amid visible consumer preference in favour of cheaper products, but the strategy hasn’t helped boost volumes just yet.

Rural recovery awaited

Companies, too, believe demand revival will have to wait.

"I think it will take a couple of quarters for recovery. Rural (consumption) is still reeling under pressure due to a lot of liquidity problems,” Mohit Malhotra, chief executive officer, Dabur, told ET. “Food prices seem to be increasing. So, it's really not out of the woods unless rural demand returns."

India’s FMCG market expanded 6.1% in 2023, compared with a decline of 0.1% in 2022, primarily led by the performance between April and September last year.


(You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)