Till next Fed policy comes in December, oil price will be the greater trigger for FII flows: Sunil Subramaniam
![](https://m.economictimes.com/thumb/height-450,width-600,imgsize-27790,msid-104915106/sunil-subramaniam-sundaram-mf-1200.jpg)
Synopsis
“I expect the demand story around the consumer goods basket to remain fairly healthy right up to the parliamentary election. That augurs well. Though the numbers have not been great, I would still say that it is a good point to accumulate consumer stocks at this point in time, given the outlook for the next six months.”
The Fed policy done with. Clearly global markets are breathing a sigh of relief, as is India as well. But does the recovery look sustainable to you on the back of all the data points that we have seen so far?
Well, the recovery would sustain if the Fed's commentary on the future outlook comes through. Essentially future data points would determine whether this could come through. I think the other thing is that the Israel-Hamas conflict has not led to that kind of volatility, which otherwise it should have because oil prices have been reasonably stable, though initial expectations that oil would go up because of the conflict and the fact that Iran, which is a key exporter of oil, is a part of the conflict. But that has not happened because I think the market has absorbed that. So, on any anticipated supply, there may be hitches.
Unlock Leadership Excellence with a Range of CXO Courses
Offering College | Course | Website |
---|---|---|
Indian School of Business | ISB Chief Technology Officer | Visit |
IIM Lucknow | Chief Executive Officer Programme | Visit |
Indian School of Business | ISB Chief Digital Officer | Visit |
What is your take on the FMCG and consumption basket?
I think the current quarters numbers have not lived up to the expectations, but the commentary from them has been positive in terms of reviving rural demand. I would attribute this to the fact that in the period that we saw vegetable prices shoot up and all that, obviously those higher prices translated into higher rural income. So that's one good thing.
The second aspect here is that the coming season is the election season. Generally governments in power and the opposition both tend to spend a lot of money into the market during the election run up. So FMCG and consumer goods would get a spill over of that kind of demand. I expect the demand story around the consumer goods basket to remain fairly healthy right up to the parliamentary election. That augurs well. Though the numbers have not been great, I would still say that it is a good point to accumulate consumer stocks at this point in time, given the outlook for the next six months.