Indian rupee snaps four-day losing streak as dollar retreats
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Synopsis
The Indian rupee rebounded from its recent losing streak, closing 0.2% higher against the US dollar, due in part to weaker-than-expected US jobs data. The dollar index also dropped 0.9% on Friday, benefiting emerging market FX carry, bringing foreign investors back to the Indian market. The rupee far forward premiums have seen tracking the drop in near-maturity US yields.
The domestic currency last week hit its lowest level since May 30 at 82.75.
With foreign investors bringing in dollars everyday and the Reserve Bank of India also looking to keep the domestic currency in a range, maybe the market could again see the 82 levels coming back in a few days, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors.
The dollar index dropped 0.9% on Friday, its worst session in almost four months after the payrolls data showed the U.S. economy added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years in June, while the two-year U.S. yields slipped back under 5%.
The rupee far forward premiums rose, tracking the drop in near-maturity U.S. yields.
The one-year implied forward yield on the dollar against the rupee was up 5 basis points at 1.61%. Last week, the premiums had dropped to their lowest in over a decade on worries that U.S. rates could rise more and remain higher for longer.
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"The U.S. employment numbers were not exactly weak but were not enough to think the Fed should be even more hawkish," HSBC analysts said in a note.
"A benign payrolls, however, should still be conducive for emerging market FX carry to work further.