UEFA EURO 2024 qualification scenario for each group

NEW DELHI: The UEFA EURO 2024 group stage is progressing, with the second set of matches underway. As the tournament advances, the round of 16 is starting to take shape. We will keep you informed about the permutations, rules, and tiebreakers.
Group A
Germany and Switzerland have secured their spots in the round of 16 from Group A, while Poland and Scotland are eliminated.

Group B
24 June: Albania (1) vs Spain (6), Croatia (1) vs Italy (3)
Spain have secured their spot in the round of 16 as the group winners.
Italy's path to the round of 16 as group runners-up is straightforward: avoid a loss against Croatia. However, if they suffer a defeat and Albania manages to upset Spain, Italy will be eliminated from the competition.
Albania's chances of advancing to the round of 16 as group runners-up hinge on a victory against Spain, coupled with Croatia defeating Italy. In this scenario, Albania must also surpass Croatia in terms of overall goal difference, overall goals scored, disciplinary points, or European Qualifiers rankings. A loss or a draw, combined with a Croatian victory over Italy, will spell the end of Albania's round of 16 hopes.
Croatia's round of 16 qualification as group runners-up requires a win against Italy, provided that Albania fails to beat Spain. If both Croatia and Albania emerge victorious, the tie-breaker for second and third place will be determined by the aforementioned criteria. A loss or a draw, combined with Albania avoiding defeat, will eliminate Croatia from contention for the round of 16.
Group C
The upcoming matches on 25 June will determine the fate of the teams in Group C. England will face Slovenia, while Denmark will take on Serbia.
England's path to the round of 16 is straightforward. They can secure their spot by avoiding a loss against Slovenia or if Denmark fails to defeat Serbia. To clinch the top spot in the group, England needs to triumph over Slovenia, or they can settle for a draw if Denmark doesn't win. In the event of a draw for England and a victory for Denmark, the tie for first and second place will be resolved based on overall goal difference, followed by overall goals scored, disciplinary points, and lastly, European Qualifiers rankings. Regardless of the outcome, England is guaranteed to finish no lower than third.
Denmark's advancement to the round of 16 hinges on their ability to overcome Serbia. If both Denmark and Slovenia draw their respective matches, the criteria mentioned above will be used to determine the second and third positions. The same applies to the first and second spots if both Denmark and Slovenia win, or if Denmark wins and England draws. In the case of both Denmark and Slovenia losing, they will be ranked third and fourth accordingly. However, if Denmark loses and Slovenia manages to avoid defeat, Denmark will be eliminated from contention for the round of 16.
Slovenia's path to the round of 16 involves defeating England. If they succeed and Denmark fails to win, Slovenia will emerge as the group winner. Should both Slovenia and Denmark win, the aforementioned criteria will be employed to decide the first and second places. Similarly, if both teams draw, they will be ranked second and third. In the event of both teams losing, they will occupy the third and fourth positions. If Slovenia loses and Serbia draws, Slovenia and Serbia will compete for the third or fourth spot.
Serbia's chances of reaching the round of 16 depend on beating Denmark and Slovenia not defeating England. If both Serbia and Slovenia win, Serbia will secure the third position behind England based on their head-to-head record. A draw for Serbia and a loss for Slovenia will result in the two teams being ranked third and fourth according to the established criteria. However, Serbia will be eliminated from the round of 16 if they lose or if they draw and Slovenia avoids defeat.
Group D
On June 25th, the Netherlands, who currently have 4 points, will face Austria, who have 3 points.
Meanwhile, France, also with 4 points, will take on Poland, who have yet to secure any points.
The Netherlands can secure a spot in the round of 16 by avoiding a loss against Austria. They can clinch the top spot in the group if they win and France fails to do so, or if they draw and France loses. A draw coupled with a French victory would place the Netherlands in second. If both the Netherlands and France win or draw, the tie-breaker for first place will be determined by overall goal difference, followed by goals scored, disciplinary points, and finally, European Qualifiers rankings. The same criteria apply if both teams lose, but for second and third place instead.
France will progress to the round of 16 if they avoid a loss to Poland or if Austria fails to defeat the Netherlands. They will secure the top spot in the group with a win, provided the Netherlands do not also win. The tie-breaking criteria mentioned above will be used to determine first and second place if France and the Netherlands both win or draw, and second and third place if they both lose.
Austria's path to the round of 16 requires a victory over the Netherlands. They can win the group if they triumph and France does not. A draw for Austria coupled with a French loss would see Austria finish third behind France based on their head-to-head record.
Poland, unfortunately, has no chance of reaching the round of 16 and will end up in fourth place.
Group E
On June 26th, Slovakia and Romania, both with 3 points, will face off, while Ukraine, also with 3 points, will take on Belgium, who have the same number of points.
Romania will secure a spot in the top two and advance to the round of 16 if they avoid a loss to Slovakia. They can win the group if they emerge victorious and Belgium fails to beat Ukraine. However, a loss for Romania combined with Ukraine avoiding defeat would eliminate Romania from contention for the round of 16.
Belgium's path to the round of 16 and a top-two finish requires them to avoid a loss to Ukraine. They can clinch the top spot in the group with a win, provided Slovakia does not beat Romania. A loss for Belgium coupled with Romania avoiding defeat would end Belgium's hopes of reaching the round of 16.
Slovakia will progress to the round of 16 and finish in the top two if they defeat Romania. A draw would see them finish third. Slovakia can secure the top spot in the group if they win and Ukraine fails to beat Belgium. However, a loss for Slovakia combined with Belgium avoiding defeat would eliminate Slovakia from contention for the round of 16.
Ukraine's route to the round of 16 and a top-two finish involves beating Belgium. They can clinch the top spot if they win and Romania does not beat Slovakia. A draw for Ukraine would result in a third-place finish, provided the other game does not end in a draw. A loss for Ukraine combined with Slovakia avoiding defeat would end Ukraine's hopes of reaching the round of 16.
If both matches end in draws, all four teams will be tied on 4 points, leading to the following scenarios:
A) If the draws have identical scorelines or if Belgium vs Ukraine has fewer goals than Slovakia vs Romania, the group ranking would be determined by goal difference and goals scored, resulting in:
1) Romania
2) Belgium
3) Slovakia
4) Ukraine
B: If the draws have different scorelines, the following scenarios are anticipated:
A 1-1 draw in Belgium vs Ukraine and a 0-0 draw in Slovakia vs Romania, or any pair of results where Belgium scores exactly one more goal than Romania in their draw, would see Belgium and Romania occupy the top two spots but be equal on goal difference and goals scored. In this case, the head-to-head criteria would be reapplied exclusively to these two teams, placing Belgium ahead of Romania due to their direct match victory. Slovakia would finish third and Ukraine fourth based on goal difference.
In all other scenarios, Romania and Belgium would secure the top two spots, separated by goals scored. Belgium will win the group if they score two or more goals than Romania in their draw, while Romania would win the group if they score more goals than Belgium in their draw. Slovakia would finish ahead of Ukraine in third place based on goal difference.
In all of these scenarios, the situations outlined in articles 20.02 (penalty kicks in case of perfect equality), 20.01g, and 20.01h (disciplinary points and European Qualifiers rankings) of the competition regulations would not apply.
Group F
26 June: Georgia (1) vs Portugal (6), Czechia (1) vs Türkiye (3)
Portugal have secured their spot in the round of 16 as the winners of the group.
Türkiye's advancement to the round of 16 as the group runners-up depends on their performance against Czechia. A draw or a win will guarantee their progression, while a loss combined with a Georgia victory over Portugal will eliminate them.
Czechia's path to the round of 16 as the group runners-up involves a victory against Türkiye and a Portugal win or draw against Georgia. If both Czechia and Georgia win, the tie-breaker for second and third place will be determined by overall goal difference, overall goals scored, disciplinary points, and European Qualifiers rankings, in that order. A draw will suffice for Czechia to finish third, provided Georgia do not win. A loss will end Czechia's chances of reaching the round of 16.
Georgia's only hope of advancing to the round of 16 as the group runners-up is by defeating Portugal while Czechia simultaneously beats Türkiye, and Georgia finishes ahead of Czechia based on the aforementioned tie-breaking criteria. A loss or a draw, coupled with Czechia avoiding defeat, will eliminate Georgia from contention for the round of 16.
The round of 16 is shaping up to be an exciting phase of the tournament, with several teams still in the running to secure their spots. The final group matches will be crucial in determining the qualifiers and the matchups for the knockout stage.