CSIS Southeast Asia Program

🌊 On July 11th, the CSIS Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative hosted the 14th annual South China Sea Conference to discuss recent developments in the contentious region. Listen to the conference virtually here: https://lnkd.in/enyJcNDD 💬 Some of the conference’s key quotes include: 1️⃣ Rep. Darrell Issa: “Whether it’s Vietnam, Taiwan, or the Philippines, there are aggressive activities... on rights of free travel on the open seas, territorial rights of those three [countries], including their fishermen being aggressively thwarted by government-backed Chinese vessels every day.” 2️⃣ Jay Batongbacal: “The Second Thomas Shoal is interesting because it is a symbolic conflict. Nobody can see how a rusted, immobile ship all alone in the middle of the ocean could pose any threat to anyone, and yet the attention which China places onto this particular vessel is grossly disproportionate to the threat it poses.” 3️⃣ Nguyen Hung Son: “The notion that the Indo-Pacific is less risky than any other region is actually a misconceived assessment. The risk that all sides [are] pulled into an unwanted conflict is very real and that it is a very dangerous game of escalation, of brinkmanship and the risk of escalation and testing the resolves of other[s] amid a very complex global context is very high.”

🚨NEW SOUTHEAST ASIA RADIO ALERT!🚨 Gregory Poling and Elina Noor discuss ongoing tensions in the South China Sea with Jay Batongbacal, while Japhet Quitzon and Lauren Mai discuss the latest headlines from the region: https://cs.is/3S491sQ 🦧 Malaysia’s orangutan diplomacy: Malaysia is planning to send orangutans as cultural ambassadors to their major economic partners after the European Union, one of Malaysia’s biggest palm oil importers, imposed a ban on agricultural products grown in deforested land after 2020. 🔊 ASEAN Leaders’ Responses to the ongoing conflict in Gaza: 🇸🇬 Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Vivian Balakrishnan, announced that Singapore is “prepared in principle” to recognize Palestine as a sovereign state. 🪖 Prime Minister Anwar announced that Indonesia and Malaysia were both prepared to send peacekeeping forces to Gaza if mandated by the United Nations, even expressing interest in extending peacekeeping efforts to involve other members of ASEAN. 💰Major Regional Investments in Southeast Asia: 📱TikTok's parent company ByteDance set up its branch in Malaysia with a 317-million-dollar budget to expand its data center. 🛤️ In the China-Vietnam high-level meeting on June 26th, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh expressed the country’s interest in partnering with China on a cross-country high-speed railway project. 🔋Japan established the Asian Zero Emission Community, an initiative shortly after a Chinese state-owned operator acquired grids from Laos and began full-scale power transmission in January. 🏭 Singapore’s property manager CapitaLand Investment wants to invest up to 110 million dollars on industrial factories in Vietnam as it expects manufacturers to diverge supply chains out of China. 🧑💻Cyberattacks in Indonesia: More than 40 government agencies in Indonesia were hit by a cyber attack, disrupting immigration services and major airport operations.

📅 Happening today: The CSIS Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative are hosting the 14th Annual South China Sea Conference to discuss recent developments in the contentious region. Livestream the conference virtually here: https://lnkd.in/enyJcNDD   ✏️ Panels will address the state of play in the South China Sea, legal developments and dispute management, evolving alliance networks, and the role of outside parties, such as the Quad, AUKUS, and Europe.    🗣️The conference features speakers from the region and from Washington, D.C., including: Darrell Issa , House Foreign Affairs Committee  Lynn Kuok, PhD, Brookings Institution & University of Cambridge Bich Tran, National University of Singapore  Aristyo R. Darmawan, Universitas Indonesia   Ely Ratner, U.S. Department of Defense  Lisa Curtis, Center for a New American Security    Hope to see you there!

🇻🇳 While Vietnam has experienced a surge in U.S. investment in recent years, could increasing corruption scandals steer investors away? 🇺🇸 🔍 In her latest #NewPerspectives, Research Intern Giang Pham demonstrates how diverging from the ongoing anti-corruption campaign would help Vietnam attract more U.S. investment. Check it out here: https://cs.is/3XZMuky 🏢 Vietnam has seen a series of leadership shakeups in recent months, with the country’s president and chairman of the National Assembly facing dismissal from their positions due to their alleged connections to corruption cases. 📉 Although the anti-corruption campaign aims to dislodge Vietnam’s long-standing bribery culture and revive public trust in the party, the intensification of the campaign may do more harm than good, including by sparking concern about the country’s long-term political stability among foreign investors. 🔖 In order to attract more U.S. investment, Vietnam should distribute its attention equally between fighting corruption and improving its legal framework to stabilize the economy. 

📣 LATEST on SEA Alert 📣 Shrinking international support and a deteriorating economic situation pose a threat to the steadiness of Myanmar's military junta. Japhet Quitzon breaks down some key takeaways: https://cs.is/4cJbJM8 🪖 The United Nations on June 27 released a report revealing that the Myanmar junta is still capable of acquiring new military equipment from abroad despite broad sanctions and restrictions. 🏦 Between March 2023 and 2024, the junta acquired $253 million worth of weapons, dual-use technologies, and manufacturing equipment with the aid of international banks. 🇹🇭 After Singapore cracked down on such transactions last year, exports from Singapore were slashed from $110 million to $10 million. Singaporean banks, once key facilitators for Myanmar’s military procurements, have largely been supplanted by Thai banks. ⚔️ On June 24, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and its allies captured 24 junta military bases in Shan State and the upper Mandalay region as the first step in a new campaign the group is framing as a continuation of last October’s wildly successful Operation 1027. 🇮🇳 On June 26, Indian foreign affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met with his junta counterpart Than Shwe in Delhi to express India’s deep concern over the instability in Myanmar. 🇨🇳 In one of the first high-level Myanmar visits to China, former president Thein Sein met with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, ostensibly to discuss the principles of co-existence.

🇨🇳 How have geopolitical tensions surrounding the People’s Republic of China (PRC) heightened the scrutiny of PRC nationals in the Philippines and around the world? 🇵🇭 📈 Former research intern Tappy Lung unpacks the Philippines’ growing trend of Sinophobia in her latest blog post, analyzing its implications for Philippine national interests: https://cs.is/3RRvtoW 🔬 Geopolitical tensions with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have led to heightened scrutiny of PRC nationals and individuals of Chinese descent in the Philippines and around the world.    🕵️ In April of this year, the Philippine government began investigating an alleged influx of 4,600 PRC nationals studying in Cagayan, suspecting some might be spies.    🔖 Sinophobia should not be disregarded as a strategic label that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) uses to discredit critics of its actions. The Philippines must address Sinophobia to uphold its internal cohesion and its preferences in international relations. 

🤔 How has Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim’s stance on Gaza tested Malaysia-U.S. relations? Sophie Lemiere unpacks the public's response to Ibrahim's controversial stance and its geopolitical implications in her latest commentary: https://cs.is/4clELBR ✅ Anwar’s unflinching support for the Palestinian group has raised eyebrows in Washington, where concerns about terrorism financing and the Israel-Palestine conflict are deeply entrenched. ✅ The implications of Anwar’s stance are far reaching, not only for Malaysia-United States relations but also for the broader dynamics of international politics. ✅ The prime minister’s willingness to challenge Washington’s stance on Israel has raised questions about the future of Malaysian foreign policy and the state’s willingness to take on powerful actors in the region.

🚨NEW PACIFIC AIRWAVES ALERT🚨 In collaboration with CSIS’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Monica Michiko Sato and Andreyka Natalegawa discuss the news making waves in the Pacific: https://cs.is/3zwTOKb 📜 Vanuatu’s Constitutional Changes: On May 29, Vanuatu held a referendum for two constitutional amendments in hopes of stabilizing domestic politics. 🇺🇸 U.S. Engagement with the Pacific: ✅ U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken formally announced that Guam and North Mariana Islands were approved to join the Pacific Islands Forum as non-voting members. 🛫 The U.S. Missile Defense Agency (or MDA) is calling for public consultation on a proposal to test missile defenses in Guam. The proposal aims to launch two test flights per year within the next decade. 🇳🇿 NZ’s Engagement with the Pacific: New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon commenced his first trip to the Pacific since entering office, visiting Nieu and Fiji in early June. 🇨🇳 NZ & Australia Hosted Visits to Chinese Premier Li Qiang: New Zealand and Australia both hosted visits to Chinese Premier Li Qiang, the first visit by a Chinese premier in seven years. 🗳️ Macron Suspended New Caledonia’s Electoral Reform: France’s President Emmanuel Macron suspended the planned electoral reform, an amendment that would’ve extended voting rights to non-indigenous residents. 🧗 PNG’s Landslide: Official figures estimate that at least 2,000 people were buried in the landslide, but rescue teams only managed to recover 12 bodies by mid-June.

🚨NEW SOUTHEAST ASIA RADIO ALERT!🚨 Japhet Quitzon and Lauren Mai discuss the latest headlines from the region, while Gregory Poling and Elina Noor celebrate two years of Southeast Asia Radio with a Q&A: https://cs.is/3W3WF6w 🛢️Singapore’s oil spill: Oil slicks spread from Singapore’s Southern Islands, to Changi in the far east, and even to beaches in Malaysia’s southern state Johor. 🤝Thailand and Malaysia’s interest to join BRICS:  Malaysia announced that it would start its formal membership application soon. Likewise, Thailand also expressed its interest to become a member of BRICS. Following Thailand and Malaysia’s announcements, there are concerns that their membership may result in an overdependence on China.  ✈️Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Vietnam: Putin claimed that sanctions from NATO pose a security threat to Russia in Asia, so this visit aims to prove that he still has friends in this region. Vietnam’s President To Lam praised Putin for contributing to “peace, stability and development” in the world. ✈️Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s visits to Malaysia and Brunei: In Brunei, PM Wong's delegation met with Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah to reaffirm their economic cooperation through the Currency Interchangeability Agreement and Brunei’s support in hosting training for Singapore’s Armed Forces.  💉U.S.-led anti-vaccine campaign in the Philippines: According to Reuters, this U.S.-led operation consisted of phony accounts impersonating local Filipinos. The report was met with public condemnation, with several lawmakers expressing anger at the operation’s implications for the Philippines’ public health.

In Malaysia, by-elections are often perceived as a barometer for the government’s popularity, writes Adjunct Fellow Sophie Lemiere in her latest #Spotlight: https://cs.is/3xCbDa9   Another by-election will be held next month on July 6 in Sungai Bakap following the death of the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) incumbent Nor Zamri Latiff on May 24.   The polls will pit Joohari Ariffin against Abidin Ismail, respectively the candidates from the de facto ruling party Keadilan of the government coalition and PAS from the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition.   This election comes as:   ✅ The recent cut of oil subsidies on diesel and the soon-to-come cut on RON95 petrol subsidies continue to upset a majority of voters, and especially the B40, or those among the lowest 40 percent of earners.    ✅ The recent announcement of a 13 percent increase in civil servants’ wages, the largest increase in the country’s history, has also drawn severe criticism in a climate of economic hardship for most lower- and middle-income households.