Search Results (1,120)

Numerical experiments using the WRF model were conducted to analyze the sensitivity of Typhoon Mangkhut intensification simulations to seven widely used planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes, including YSU, MYJ, QNSE, MYNN2, MYNN3, ACM2, and BouLac. The results showed that all simulations generally reproduced the tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity, with YSU, QNSE, and BouLac schemes better capturing intensification processes and closely matching observed TC intensity. In terms of surface layer parameterization, the QNSE scheme produced the highest C_k/C_d ratio, resulting in stronger TC intensity based on Emanuel’s potential intensity theory. In terms of PBL parameterization, the YSU and BouLac schemes, with the same revised MM5 surface layer scheme, simulated weaker turbulent diffusivity K_m and shallower mixing height, leading to stronger TC intensity. During the intensification period, the BouLac, YSU, and QNSE PBL schemes exhibited stronger tangential wind, radial inflow within the boundary layer, and updraft around the eye wall, consistent with TC intensity results. Both PBL and surface layer parameterization significantly influenced simulated TC intensity. The QNSE scheme, with the largest C_k/C_d ratio, and the YSU and BouLac schemes, with weaker turbulent diffusivity, generated stronger radial inflow, updraft, and warm core structures, contributing to higher storm intensity. Full article

The frequency of extreme wildfire events (EWEs) is expected to increase due to climate change, leading to higher levels of atmospheric pollutants being released into the air, which could cause significant short-term impacts on human health (both for the population and firefighters) and on visibility. This study aims to gain a better understanding of the effects of EWEs’ smoke on air quality, its short-term impacts on human health, and how it reduces visibility by applying a modelling system to the Portuguese EWEs of October 2017. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model was combined with a semi-empirical fire spread algorithm (WRF-SFIRE) to simulate particulate matter smoke dispersion and assess its impacts based on up-to-date numerical approaches. Hourly simulated particulate matter values were compared to hourly monitored values, and the WRF-SFIRE system demonstrated accuracy consistent with previous studies, with a correlation coefficient ranging from 0.30 to 0.76 and an RMSE varying between 215 µg/m³ and 418 µg/m³. The estimated daily particle concentration levels exceeded the European air quality limit value, indicating a potential strong impact on human health. Health indicators related to exposure to particles were estimated, and their spatial distribution showed that the highest number of hospital admissions (>300) during the EWE, which occurred downwind of the fire perimeters, were due to the combined effect of high smoke pollution levels and population density. Visibility reached its worst level at night, when dispersion conditions were poorest, with the entire central and northern regions registering poor visibility levels (with a visual range of less than 2 km). This study emphasises the use of numerical models to predict, with high spatial and temporal resolutions, the population that may be exposed to dangerous levels of air pollution caused by ongoing wildfires. It offers valuable information to the public, civil protection agencies, and health organisations to assist in lessening the impact of wildfires on society. Full article

Particulate matter (PM) in the atmosphere poses significant risks to both human health and the environment. Specifically, PM2.5, particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 micrometers, has been linked to increased rates of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. In South Korea, concerns about PM2.5 exposure have grown due to its potential for causing premature death. This study aims to estimate high-resolution exposure concentrations of PM2.5 across South Korea from 2015 to 2021. We integrated data from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with surface air quality measurements, the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) satellite data. These data, combined with multiple regression analyses, allowed for the correction of PM2.5 estimates, particularly in suburban areas where ground measurements are sparse. The simulated PM2.5 concentration showed strong correlations with observed values R (ranging from 0.88 to 0.94). Spatial distributions of annual PM2.5 showed a significant decrease in PM2.5 concentrations from 2015 to 2021, with some fluctuation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as in 2020. The study produced highly accurate daily average high-resolution PM2.5 exposure concentrations. Full article

A first-order linear and numerically non-diffusive Eulerian transport algorithm, minVAR, was recently developed for preservation of correlations between interrelated tracers during advective transport. The present study extends this work by: (1) providing further investigation of several interesting geometric constructions found in contours of constant minVAR, short for minimum variance, through extension to three coordinate dimensions. These contours capture point-by-point representations of thousands of individual atmospheric aerosol and/or cloud particles as they evolve and are rendered on Eulerian grids at a level of sub-grid resolution limited only by numerical precision; and (2) exploration of geometric similarities between the Arakawa C-grid, used to obtain interpolated values of the wind field at grid scale and minVAR. In particular, we consider interpolation of the u and v horizontal components of wind velocity from grid to sub-grid scales. The last results are motivated by recent applications of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model applied in the coastal Houston region, where the recent TRacking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) field campaign was organized. A unique and fully consistent mapping is obtained between particles moving along meteorological wind trajectories and the non-diffusive, non-dispersive representation of such trajectories on an Eulerian grid. Full article

The influences of surface layer (SL) physics schemes on the simulated intensity and structure of Typhoon Rai (2021) are investigated using the WRF model. Numerical experiments using different SL physics schemes—revised MM5 scheme (MM5), Eta similarity scheme (CTL), and Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino scheme (MYNN)—are conducted. The results show that the intensity forecast of Typhoon Rai is largely influenced by SL physics schemes, while its track forecast is not significantly affected. All three experiments can successfully capture the movement of Rai, while CTL provides better intensity simulation compared to the other two experiments. The higher ratio of enthalpy exchange coefficient to drag coefficient (C_K/C_D) in CTL than MM5 and MYNN leads to significantly increased surface enthalpy fluxes, which are crucial for the typhoon intensification of the former. To explore the influence of SL physics on the structural evolution of the typhoon, the azimuthal-mean angular momentum (AM) budget is utilized. The results indicate that asymmetric eddy terms may also largely contribute to the AM tendencies, which are relatively more comparable in the weaker TC for MM5, compared to the stronger TC with the dominant symmetric mean terms for CTL. Furthermore, the extended Sawyer–Eliassen (SE) equation is solved to quantify the transverse circulations of the typhoon induced by different forcing sources for CTL and MM5. The SE solution indicates that the transverse circulation above and within the boundary layer is predominantly induced by diabatic heating and turbulent friction, respectively, for both CTL and MM5, while all other physical forcing terms are relatively insignificant for the induced transverse circulation for CTL, except for the large contribution from the eddy forcing in the upper-tropospheric outflow for MM5. With the stronger connective heating in the eyewall and boundary-layer radial inflow, the linear SE analysis agrees much better with the nonlinear simulation for CTL than MM5. Full article

An accurate forecast of typhoon tracks is crucial for disaster warning and mitigation. However, existing numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, still exhibit significant errors in track forecasts. This study aims to improve forecast accuracy by correcting WRF-forecasted tracks using deep learning models, including Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) + Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) + Wide and Deep Learning (WDL), BiLSTM + Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit (ConvGRU) + WDL, and BiLSTM + ConvLSTM + Extreme Deep Factorization Machine (xDeepFM), with a comparison to the Kalman Filter. The results demonstrate that the BiLSTM + ConvLSTM + WDL model reduces the 72 h track prediction error (TPE) from 255.18 km to 159.23 km, representing a 37.6% improvement over the original WRF model, and exhibits significant advantages across all evaluation metrics, particularly in key indicators such as Bias², Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Sequence. The decomposition of MSE further validates the importance of the BiLSTM, ConvLSTM, WDL, and Temporal Normalization (TN) layers in enhancing the model’s spatio-temporal feature-capturing ability. Full article

The intensity change of Typhoon Songda (TY-0418) in the vicinity of the semi-enclosed Sea of Japan (SJ) was numerically investigated using 3D-WRF and UM-KMA models and GOES-IR satellite images on 4 to 8 September 2004. After the typhoon originated in the Western Pacific Ocean in August, it moved to the East China Sea. Following the north-eastward Kuroshio Warm Current, it developed with horizontal and vertical asymmetrical wind and moisture patterns until 5 September. On 7 September, closing to the Kyushu Island, it was divided into three wind fields near the surface due to the increased friction from the surrounding lands and shallower sea depth close to the land, but it still maintained its circular shape over 1 km in height. As it passed by the Korea Strait and entered the SJ, it became a smaller, deformed typhoon due to the SJ’s surrounding mountains, located between the East Korea and Tsushima Warm Currents inside the SJ. Its center matched a high equivalent potential temperature area, releasing significant latent heat through the condensation of water particles over warm currents. The latent heat converted to kinetic energy could be supplied into the typhoon circulation, causing its development. Moist flux and streamline at 1.5 km in height clearly showed the moisture transportation via the mutual interaction of the cyclonic circulation of the typhoon and the anti-cyclonic circulation of the North Pacific High Pressure from the typhoon’s tail toward both the center of the SJ and the Russian Sakhalin Island in the north of Japan, directly causing large clouds in its right quadrant. Simultaneously, the central pressure decrease with time could converge both transported moist air by the typhoon itself and water particles evaporated from the sea, causing them to rise and resulting in the formation of large clouds and the rapid development of the typhoon circulation. The strong downslope winds from the surrounding mountains of the SJ to its center also produced a cyclonic vortex due to the Coriolis force to the right, enhancing the typhoon’s circulation. Full article

This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of four scenario experiments using the CMA_WSP, WRF, and WRF_FITCH models to enhance forecasts of hub-height wind speeds at multiple wind farms in Northern China, particularly under significant wind speed fluctuations during high wind conditions. The experiments apply various wind speed calculation methods, including the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (ST) and wind farm parameterization (WFP), within a 9 km resolution framework. Data from four geographically distinct stations were analyzed to assess their forecast accuracy over a 72 h period, focusing on the transitional wind events characterized by substantial fluctuations. The CMA_WSP model with the ST method (CMOST) achieved the highest scores across the evaluation metrics. Meanwhile, the WRF_FITCH model with the WFP method (FETA) demonstrated superior performance to the other WRF models, achieving the lowest RMSE and a greater stability. Nevertheless, all models encountered difficulties in predicting the exact timing of extreme wind events. This study also explores the effects of these methods on the wind power density (WPD) distribution, emphasizing the boundary layer’s influence at the hub-heighthub-height of 85 m. This influence leads to significant variations in the central and coastal regions. In contrast to other methods that account for the comprehensive effects of the entire boundary layer, the ST method primarily relies on the near-surface 10 m wind speed to calculate the hub-height wind speed. These findings provide important insights for enhancing wind speed and WPD forecasts under transitional weather conditions. Full article

This study utilized the WRF model to investigate the track evolution and rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Doksuri (2023) as it moved across the Luzon Strait and through the South China Sea (SCS). The simulation results indicate that Doksuri has a smaller track sensitivity to the use of different physics schemes, while having a greater intensity sensitivity. Sensitivity numerical experiments with different physics schemes can well capture its northwestward movement in the first two days, but they predict less westward track deflection as the typhoon moves across the Luzon Strait and through the SCS. Moreover, all the experiments successfully simulated Doksuri’s RI, albeit with quite different rates and a time lag of 12 h. Among different combinations of physics schemes, there exists an optimal set of cumulus parameterization and cloud microphysics schemes for track and intensity predictions. Doksuri’s track changes as the typhoon moved across the Luzon Strait and through the SCS were influenced by the topographic effects of the terrain of the Philippines and Taiwan, to different extents. The track changes of Doksuri are explained by the wavenumber-one potential vorticity (PV) tendency budget from different physical processes, highlighting that the horizontal PV advection dominates the PV tendency throughout most of the simulation time due to the offset of vertical PV advection and differential diabatic heating. In addition, this study applies the extended Sawyer–Eliassen (SE) equation to compare the transverse circulations of the typhoon induced by various forcing sources. The SE solution indicates that radial inflow was largely driven in the lower-tropospheric vortex by strong diabatic heating, while being significantly enhanced in the lower boundary layer due to turbulent friction. All other physical forcing terms were relatively insignificant for the induced transverse circulation. The coordinated radial inflow at low levels may have led to the eyewall development in unbalanced dynamics. Intense diabatic heating thus was vital to the severe RI of Doksuri under a weak vertical wind shear. Full article

As warmer and drier conditions associated with global warming are projected to increase in southern Europe, the Mediterranean countries are currently the most prone to wildfire danger. In the present study, we investigated the statistical relationship between drought and fire weather risks in the context of climate change using drought index and fire weather-related indicators. We focused on the vulnerable and long-suffering area of the Attica region using high-resolution gridded climate datasets. Concerning fire weather components and fire hazard days, the majority of Attica consistently produced values that were moderately to highly anti-correlated (−0.5 to −0.9). This suggests that drier circumstances raise the risk of fires. Additionally, it was shown that the spatial dependence of each variable on the 6-months scale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6), varied based on the period and climate scenario. Under both scenarios, an increasing rate of change between the drought index and fire indicators was calculated over future periods versus the historical period. In the case of mean and 95th percentiles of FWI with SPEI6, abrupt changes in linear regression slope values were observed, shifting from lower in the past to higher values in the future periods. Finally, the fire indicators’ future projections demonstrated a tendency towards an increasing fire weather risk for the region’s non-urban (forested and agricultural) areas. This increase was evident from the probability distributions shifting to higher mean and even more extreme values in future periods and scenarios. The study demonstrated the region’s growing vulnerability to future fire incidents in the context of climate change. Full article

An investigation is undertaken to explore a sudden quasi-linear precipitation and gale event that transpired in the afternoon of 30 May 2024 over Beijing. It was situated at the southwestern periphery of a double-center low-vortex system, where a moisture-rich belt efficiently channeled abundant warm, humid air northward from the south. The interplay between dynamical lifting, convergent airflow-induced uplift, and the amplifying effects of the northern mountainous terrain’s topography creates favorable conditions that support the development and persistence of quasi-linear convective precipitation, accompanied by gale-force winds at the surface. The study also analyzes the impacts of five microphysics schemes (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Morrison, and WDM6) employed in a weather research and forecasting (WRF) numerical model, with which the simulated rainfall and radar reflectivity are compared against ground-based rain gauge network and weather radar observations, respectively. Simulations with the five microphysics schemes demonstrate commendable skills in replicating the macroscopic quasi-linear pattern of the event. Among the schemes assessed, the WSM6 scheme exhibits its superior agreement with radar observations. The Morrison scheme demonstrates superior performance in predicting cumulative rainfall. Nevertheless, five microphysics schemes exhibit limitations in predicting the rainfall amount, the rainfall duration, and the rainfall area, with a discernible lag of approximately 30 min in predicting precipitation onset, indicating a tendency to forecast peak rainfall events slightly posterior to their true occurrence. Furthermore, substantial disparities emerge in the simulation of the vertical distribution of hydrometeors, underscoring the intricacies of microphysical processes. Full article

This study utilized high-resolution numerical simulation data from the WRF model to conduct a thermodynamic diagnosis of the process by which Typhoon “Maysak” transformed and merged with the Northeast Cold Vortex. The results indicated that the continuous intrusion of cold vortex air and the relative cold advection formed by the typhoon’s movement led to the demise of the typhoon’s warm core structure. The low-level low-pressure convergence and upper-level high-pressure divergence structure disappeared. After the transformation and merging with the Northeast Cold Vortex, the cyclone became cold throughout the entire layer, with a cold center appearing at low levels. During the process of the typhoon’s transformation and merging with the Northeast Cold Vortex, cold air accumulated near the low levels of the cyclone, causing the pseudo-adiabatic potential temperature lines to tilt and resulting in the slanted development of vertical vorticity in the mid-levels of the cyclone. After the typhoon transformed and merged with the Northeast Cold Vortex, the positive vertical vorticity advection at the bottom of the upper-level cold vortex trough promoted the cyclone’s development directly from the mid-levels to the upper levels, while the jet stream at the bottom of the cold vortex trough facilitated the maintenance of the positive vertical vorticity advection. Concurrently, the thermodynamic shear vorticity parameter could describe the typical vertical structure characteristics of the dynamic and thermodynamic fields above the rain area during the typhoon transformation process. In terms of temporal evolution trends, there was a certain correspondence with the development and movement of the ground rain area, and the perturbation thermodynamic divergence parameter had a good indicative effect on the area of heavy rainfall. Full article

This study evaluates the capability of an unconstrained tomographic algorithm to capture 3D water vapor density variability throughout 2017 in Houston, U.S. The algorithm relies solely on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations and does not require an initial guess or other specific constraints regarding water vapor density variability within the tomographic domain. The test domain, featuring 9 km horizontal, 500 m vertical, and 30 min temporal resolutions, yielded remarkable results when compared to data retrieved from the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), regional Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) data, and GNSS-Radio Occultation (RO). For the first time, a time series of Precipitable Water Vapor maps derived from the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique was used to validate the spatially integrated water vapor computed by GNSS tomography. Tomographic results clearly indicate the passage of Hurricane Harvey, with integrated water vapor peaking at 60 kg/m² and increased humidity at altitudes up to 7.5 km. Our findings suggest that GNSS tomography holds promise as a reliable source of atmospheric water vapor data for various applications. Future enhancements may arise from denser and multi-constellation networks. Full article

Coastal upwelling is of particular importance in the western Iberian Peninsula, considering its socioeconomic impact on the region. Therefore, it is of crucial interest to evaluate how climate change, by modifying wind patterns, might influence its intensity and seasonality. Given the limited spatial extension of the area, it is essential to use high-resolution data. Thus, the weather research and forecasting model was used to dynamically downscale data from a multi-model ensemble from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, representing the latest climate projections. Two shared socioeconomic pathways, 2–4.5 and 5–8.5 scenarios, were considered. The results show that climate change will not modify the upwelling seasonality in the area, where the months from April to September represent the period of highest intensity. Conversely, this seasonality might be exacerbated throughout the 21st century, as upwelling is expected to strengthen during these months and decrease during others. Additionally, coastal upwelling shows the highest increase at the northerner locations of the western Iberian Peninsula, resulting in a homogenization of its intensity along this coast. These changes may result from the anticipated intensification and northward shift of the Azores High. Full article

To thoroughly investigate the impact of meteorological conditions and emission changes on winter PM_2.5 variation in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2015 to 2019, we leveraged advanced modeling techniques, namely, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS). The results revealed that a notable trend of high-PM_2.5-concentration regions shifted from coastal areas towards to the inland regions. While emission reduction can effectively reduce the concentration of PM_2.5, meteorological changes exert a significant impact on PM_2.5 concentration. Unfavorable meteorological changes in 2018 and 2019 emerged as crucial factors driving PM_2.5 pollution in the region (up 0~50 µg·m⁻³). Our findings also shed light on the potential sources and transport pathways of PM_2.5 pollution in key cities within the YRD, indicating that the coastal channel of Hebei–Shandong–Jiangsu and the inland channel bordering Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui serve as major contributors. Light and moderate pollution was predominantly influenced by the medium-distance coastal channel (48~70%). Remarkably, short-distance inland (19~54%) and coastal transportation (33~53%) channels emerged as the primary causes of severe PM_2.5 pollution in the YRD. To effectively combat this issue, it is imperative to bolster key control and prevention measures in these regions. Full article