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The automotive sector through a climate lens


Overview - May 2024 Update

The Automotive Climate Tool combines InfluenceMap's leading analysis of automakers' engagement on climate change regulations, with independent analysis of industry standard data from S&P Global Mobility's light-duty production forecasts until 2030 from a February 2024 dataset. The tool tracks fifteen of the largest automakers and their key industry associations influence over climate policy across multiple, key regions. Key trends are summarized below;

  • The climate strategies of the world’s largest automakers threaten a 1.5°C-aligned electric vehicle transition Automakers with weaker forecasted electric vehicle production by 2030 have the most negative climate policy advocacy, while leading automakers on electric vehicle forecasts have the most positive engagement.

Electric Vehicle (BEV, FCEV & PHEV combined) Production and Climate Policy Engagement

Circle size proportional to historic and forecast 2020-2030 light-duty vehicle production

Climate Policy Engagement

InfluenceMap maintains the world's leading platform for assessing corporations' climate policy engagement, covering over 500 companies and 250 industry associations. Key findings are below:

  • The automotive sector remains a major opponent of climate policy globally. 10 of the 15 analyzed automakers analyzed receiving a Performance Band grade of D or D+, indicating their advocacy is misaligned with policy to deliver the Paris Agreement.
  • Automotive industry associations spearhead global opposition to climate regulation. Automakers employ industry associations to aggressively push back on ambitious climate policy globally, which have had significant influence over numerous key regional policies, including in Australia and the US in 2023-24.
  • Japanese automakers are most oppositional to policies promoting battery electric vehicles across multiple regions. Mazda, Suzuki, Toyota all received a climate policy engagement score of D, indicating advocacy that is misaligned with science-based policy, with Toyota the lowest-scoring company.
  • Laggard automakers oppose to regulations to phase-out internal combustion engine vehicle sales. Most automakers continue to advocate against climate policies needed to rapidly phase-in electric vehicles and meet net-zero targets, while generally supporting electric vehicle incentives.
  • Tesla leads positive advocacy on climate policy in 2023-24. Tesla is the most positively engaged automaker in this analysis, with a Performance Band of B, actively supporting policies including zero-emission vehicle mandates and stringent greenhouse gas emission standards.

The table below compares the 15 automakers climate policy engagement scores using InfluenceMap's lobbying data.

Company & Link to ProfilePerformance BandOrganization ScoreRelationship ScoreEngagement Intensity

Vehicle Production Data

The following graphs show automakers historic and forecasted light-duty vehicle production data until 2030 (InfluenceMap analysis of February 2024 S&P Global Mobility) compared with the International Energy Agency's 2023 1.5C scenario for road transport. Key findings are below.

  • Electric vehicle production forecasts are not aligned with the IEA’s updated 1.5°C scenario. Only 53% of global light-duty vehicles produced are forecast to be electric (BEV, PHEV or FCEV) in 2030, falling short of the IEA’s 66% 1.5°C scenario. At the company level, only Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW are forecast to align with this 1.5°C target in 2030, with Tesla leading.
  • Growing SUV and light truck production threatens decarbonization. SUV and light-commercial vehicle production is forecast to increase 7% as a proportion of all light-duty vehicle production between 2020-2030, with every automaker except Tata Motors forecast to produce proportionally more of these larger vehicles in the same period.
  • Japanese automakers are the least prepared for a battery electric vehicle transition. The four automakers with the lowest proportion of forecast electric vehicle production in 2030 are all from Japan (Suzuki at 10%, Honda at 24%, Toyota at 29% and Mazda at 30%).

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Electric vehicle Production vs IEA’s 1.5°C Scenario

Combined percentage battery electric, fuel cell hydrogen and plug-in hybrid light duty vehicles from manufacturers produced worldwide

Fleet Composition by Vehicle Technology

Number of vehicles produced by all worldwide

Fleet Composition by Vehicle Type

Number of vehicles produced by all worldwide