Ballotpedia's top 15 ballot measures to watch on Nov. 3
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By Ballot measures project staff
There are 120 statewide measures on the Nov. 3 ballot across 32 states. While that number is 25% less than the average since 2010, this year's crop of ballot measures stands out as one of the most complex and compelling we've seen:
- Despite there being fewer statewide measures, ballot measure campaign contributions have already broken $1 billion and will exceed the totals in 2016 and 2018.
- Familiar trends and repeat topics such as marijuana, taxes, elections, minimum wage, and rent control are on the ballot.
- A number of unique measures, first-ever measures about new policy areas, and measures with the potential to start or discourage new trends add a whole new layer to understand this year.
Here are 15 measures we're watching closely on election night and during election week:
- California Proposition 22, App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative (2020) - Uber, Lyft, and Doordash are sponsoring this ballot initiative to define app-based drivers as independent contractors and not employees. It would also enact several labor and wage policies for app-based drivers, such as an earnings floor, healthcare subsidy requirements, training programs, and accidental death insurance requirements. It is the first time voters will address gig-economy policies through a statewide ballot measure. It is also the most expensive measure of the year and in the history of California. Supporters have raised $199 million, and opponents have raised $19 million.
- Alaska Ballot Measure 2, Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting and Campaign Finance Laws Initiative (2020) - Alaska is one of two states with ranked choice voting initiatives in 2020. The other is Massachusetts. If approved, they would make Alaska and Massachusetts the second and third states in the U.S. to enact ranked choice voting for state-level elections. Maine was the first. Alaska Measure 2 would also create the first top-four primary system for state executive, state legislative, and congressional offices in the U.S. Measure 2 would use ranked choice voting for general elections. Alaska Measure 2 is part of an election policy trend among 2020 measures that also includes a top-two open primary initiative in Florida.
- Arizona Proposition 207, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2020) - Five states will vote on marijuana measures on Nov. 3. Arizona Proposition 207 is particularly interesting because Arizona voters rejected a marijuana legalization initiative in 2016 by 51.3% to 48.7%. Proposition 207 would allow possession of up to an ounce of marijuana and up to six marijuana plants; provide local governments the ability to ban marijuana facilities and control over elements of regulation, zoning, and licensing; tax marijuana sales at 16%; and establish a process for expunging past marijuana-related convictions from criminal records.
- New Jersey Question 1 is also interesting because it is the first time any state legislature has referred a marijuana legalization measure to the voters. Mississippi's medical marijuana measure is notable because of the two different versions on the ballot: one qualified through an initiative signature petition drive and the other through the state's unique process for a legislative alternative to citizen initiatives. This is just the second time the legislature has placed an alternative to a citizen initiative on the ballot. South Dakota is the first state to vote on both a medical marijuana initiative and a recreational marijuana initiative at the same election.
- Illinois Allow for Graduated Income Tax Amendment (2020) - It is rare for a measure outside of California to break $100 million in combined support and opposition contributions. It is also rare to see support and opposition contributions so close to equal. The Illinois Legislature proposed this constitutional amendment to allow the state to enact legislation for a graduated income tax. Currently, the state constitution mandates a flat personal income tax rate. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), who advocated for a graduated income tax during his gubernatorial campaign, has contributed more than 90% of the funds to the campaign backing the amendment. Ken Griffin, the founder and CEO of Citadel, has contributed more than 85% of the opposition funds. Together, the support and opposition campaigns have raised more than $120 million—a little more than $60 million each.
- Oregon Measure 109, Psilocybin Mushroom Services Program Initiative (2020) - Oregon could become the first state to legalize the use of psilocybin if voters approve Measure 109. The initiative would create a program for administering psilocybin products, such as psilocybin-producing mushrooms and fungi, to individuals aged 21 years or older in approved psilocybin service centers under the supervision of a facilitator.
- Oregon voters will also decide Measure 110, which would make non-commercial possession of all controlled substances no more than a Class E violation. It would also establish a drug addiction treatment and recovery program funded in part by the state's marijuana tax revenue and state prison savings from drug decriminalization.
- Washington, D.C., voters are voting on an initiative on Nov. 3 to require police to treat the non-commercial cultivation, distribution, possession, and use of entheogenic plants and fungi—which includes psilocybin mushrooms—as among the lowest law enforcement priorities.
- Mississippi Ballot Measure 3, State Flag Referendum (2020) - On June 30, the Mississippi Legislature approved and Governor Tate Reeves (R) signed House Bill 1796 removing the official status of Mississippi's previous flag, which contained the confederate ballot flag, and calling for this Nov. 3 flag referendum. Mississippi voters will be shown a colored picture of the proposed state flag featuring the state flower, a magnolia, and the words "In God We Trust". Voters may vote either yes to adopt the new flag or no to oppose it. If voters reject the proposal, the Commission to Redesign the Mississippi State Flag will submit a new design, which cannot include the confederate battle flag, for a special election in November 2021.
- California Proposition 15, Tax on Commercial and Industrial Properties for Education and Local Government Funding Initiative (2020) - The ballot initiative would amend Proposition 13, which required that residential, commercial, and industrial properties are taxed based on their purchase price with an annual adjustment based on inflation or 2%, whichever was lower. Proposition 15 would require commercial and industrial properties, except those zoned as commercial agriculture, to be taxed based on their market value. In California, the proposal to assess taxes on commercial and industrial properties at market value, while continuing to assess taxes on residential properties based on the purchase price, is known as split roll. The state fiscal analyst estimated that Proposition 15 would generate between $6.5 billion and $11.5 billion in revenue. Proposition 15 would require that the revenue be allocated to local governments and schools.
- California Proposition 25, Replace Cash Bail with Risk Assessments Referendum (2020) - This measure asks California voters to choose between (a) upholding Senate Bill 10 (2019) and its risk assessment system for determining whether to release detained criminal suspects before their trials or (b) rejecting SB 10 and keeping in place the cash bail system. If voters uphold SB 10 it would make California the first state to end the use of cash bail for all detained suspects awaiting trials. Proposition 25 is one of four statewide veto referendums in the country this year.
- California Proposition 16, Repeal Proposition 209 Affirmative Action Amendment (2020) - Proposition 16 is a constitutional amendment that would repeal Proposition 209, passed in 1996, from the California Constitution. Proposition 209 prohibited discrimination and preferential treatment in public employment, public education, and public contracting on account of a person's or group's race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin. Therefore, Proposition 209 banned the use of affirmative action involving race-based or sex-based preferences in California. Ballotpedia's aggregation of polls on Proposition 16 indicates a close race with a high number of undecided voters..
- Voters in Washington rejected a measure last year 50.56% to 49.44% that would have allowed certain affirmative action policies. Like Proposition 16, it would have altered a citizen initiative passed in the '90s to prohibit preferential treatment and discrimination based on race and sex.
- Colorado Proposition 113, National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Referendum (2020) - In 2019, the Colorado State Legislature passed a bill to add Colorado to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC). As part of the NPVIC, Colorado would give its electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote if the NPVIC went into effect. It would only go into effect if states representing at least 270 electoral votes join the NPVIC. The campaign Protect Colorado's Vote filed a veto referendum to overturn the law. Colorado is the first state to decide on the NPVIC through a ballot measure. The 14 existing NPVIC member states joined the compact through bills signed by Democratic governors or, in Hawaii's case, through an override of Republican Gov. Linda Lingle's veto. Proposition 113 is also one of four statewide veto referendums in the country this year.
- Colorado Proposition 118, Paid Medical and Family Leave Initiative (2020) - This is another first on the Colorado ballot. While eight other states have paid leave programs, this is the first time voters have weighed in on the issue through a statewide ballot measure. This initiative would provide 12 weeks (up to 16 weeks in certain cases) of paid leave. Qualifying individuals would receive 90% of their average weekly wage up to a certain amount and 50% for the remainder with a maximum benefit of $1,100 per week. A payroll tax starting at 0.9% of wages would fund the program. The payroll tax could be increased to 1.2%. It would be split 50/50 between employers and employees.
- Massachusetts Question 1, "Right to Repair Law" Vehicle Data Access Requirement Initiative (2020) - This citizen initiative is the sixth most expensive measure of the year and the second more expensive outside of California. Question 1 concerns what proponents call the "right to repair law" in Massachusetts, which was passed in 2013 to require access to vehicle diagnostic data for owners or independent repair shops but exempted telematics systems with regard to wireless access. It would require manufacturers that sell vehicles with telematics systems in Massachusetts to equip them with a standardized system beginning with model year 2022 that vehicle owners and independent repair facilities may access to retrieve mechanical data and run diagnostics through a mobile-based application. The Right to Repair Coalition has raised $24.4 million to support Question 1. The top donors are the Auto Care Association, the Coalition of Automotive Repair Equality, Advance Auto Parts, AutoZone, O'Reilly Auto Parts, and Genuine Parts Company. The Coalition for Safe and Secure Data has raised $26.5 million to oppose Question 1. The top donors are General Motors, Toyota Motor North America, Inc., Ford Motor Company, American Honda Motor Co., Inc., and Nissan North America Inc.
- Florida Amendment 1, Citizen Requirement for Voting Initiative (2020) - Amendment 1 would change the Florida Constitution to state that only a citizen of the U.S. who is 18 years old or older can vote in Florida. Currently, the constitutional language says that every citizen of the U.S. who is 18 years old or older can vote. Alabama and Colorado will decide similar measures on Nov. 3, and North Dakota voters approved a similar measure 65.9% to 34.1% in 2018.
- Citizen Voters Inc. is backing the measures. John Loudon, National Chairman of Citizen Voters, said, "There is controversy about the extent to which non-citizens are already voting illegally. Most consider this to be a problem, particularly in states that both issue driver licenses to non-citizens and automatically register everyone with a driver license to vote."
- The ACLU of Florida, which opposes the measure, said, "[Amendmetn 2] is cloaked in xenophobia and false patriotism. [F]ederal and state law are already clear that voting rights are strictly for U.S. citizens [...] One of the primary routes of such [voter] suppression has been through requiring increasingly costly and burdensome verification requirements, which could be enabled or justified by the passage of this amendment."
- Florida Amendment 2, $15 Minimum Wage Initiative (2020) - This initiative would increase the state's minimum wage to $15 per hour by September 2026. As a constitutional amendment in Florida, Amendment 2 requires a 60% supermajority vote for approval. Ballotpedia's aggregation of polling indicates 61.5% in support and 31.1% opposed. The six polls aggregated range from 57% in support to 67% in support.
- This is the first time voters in any state have voted on a statewide $15 per hour minimum wage. In Massachusetts (2018) and California (2016), $15 per hour minimum wage initiatives qualified or nearly qualified for the ballot, but proponents withdrew them following compromises in the legislature resulting in $15 per hour minimum wage bills. Seven states have passed bills incrementally increasing their minimum wages to $15 per hour.
- From 1996 to 2018, there were 26 minimum wage increase measures on the ballot. Of the 26 measures, 24 were approved and two were defeated. Fourteen received more than 60% approval, and 12 received less than 60% approval. On average, the 24 approved measures received 60% of the vote. The last time voters rejected a minimum wage increase at the ballot was in 1996 in Missouri and Montana.
- Oklahoma State Question 805, Criminal History in Sentencing and Sentence Modification Initiative (2020) - This citizen initiative would prohibit using a person's past non-violent felony convictions, as defined in statute on Jan. 1, 2020, to impose an enhanced sentence when sentencing a person convicted of a non-violent felony. It would also provide for sentence modifications for eligible individuals serving or set to serve sentences that were enhanced based on past non-violent felony convictions.
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