Dynamics and Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Construction Industry in China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Background
1.2. Literature Review
1.3. Aim and Question
2. Research Design
2.1. Study Area: China
2.2. Research Methods: Decoupling Model
2.3. Research Steps and Data Sources
3. Results
3.1. Dynamic Analysis
3.1.1. Change Trend of Time Series
3.1.2. Spatial-Evolution Characteristics
3.2. Decoupling Analysis
3.2.1. Gross Output Value
3.2.2. Added Value
3.2.3. Total Profit
4. Discussion
4.1. Theoretical Enlightenment
4.2. Policy Design Value
5. Conclusions
- (1)
- The trends of carbon emissions and carbon intensity in the provincial construction industry are becoming increasingly complex, with a variety of patterns, such as declining, growing, “inverted U-shaped”, “U-shaped”, and smooth fluctuating. Moreover, 1/4 of the provinces are already in the carbon-peaking state, 1/4 are in the plateau stage, and about 50% are still in the state of continuous and rapid growth of carbon emissions, meaning that the achievement of carbon-peaking and carbon-neutrality goals is still faced with great challenges.
- (2)
- Provincial carbon emissions and carbon-emission intensity are highly spatially heterogeneous without significant spatial correlation and agglomeration characteristics. The regions with high carbon emissions are clustered in the Yangtze River Economic Belt; the regions with low carbon emissions are clustered in the northwest, and HH regions are concentrated in the central region; and the HL, LH, and LL regions are small in number and scattered geographically. The regions with high carbon-emission intensity are located in Northern China, and those with low carbon-emission intensity are in the eastern coastal and central areas, with geographical coverage rapidly expanding over time. HH regions are mainly clustered in the northwest, LL regions are mostly clustered in the east coast, and HL and LH regions are small in number and scattered geographically.
- (3)
- The types of decoupling and their changes are increasingly diversified, with most provinces in a strong and weak decoupling state, but their proportions are decreasing over time. Most of the provinces in strong decoupling are clustered in the north, and those in weak decoupling are mainly clustered in the east coast and southwest regions, but the coverage of clusters has shrunk significantly. The provinces in the strong and weak negative decoupling state are mainly clustered in the northeast and northwest regions, and the clustering area is increasingly expanding. HH regions were concentrated in the Northwest Loess Plateau in the early days, but now they are clustered in the central region, with an expanding coverage. There were a small number of LL regions in the early days, and they are now mainly clustered in the northeast region.
- (4)
- The decoupling types of carbon emissions from construction industry and economic growth show evoluted, degenerated, and unchanged changes, and most of them are in the degenerated state. Evoluted regions are clustered in the central part of China; degenerated regions are in the northeast and northwest; and unchanged regions are in Bohai Bay, Pearl River Delta, Loess Plateau, and Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau. Moreover, there are a growing number of provinces in negative decoupling, and in the context of economic transformation and the outbreak of COVID-19, special vigilance should be taken to prevent re-decoupling of the provinces in the decoupling state.
- (5)
- By integrating the characteristics of carbon-emission changes, peak attainment state, and decoupling types, this paper classified the 30 provinces into three policy zones of Leader, Intermediate, and Laggard and proposed differentiated decarbonization recommendations to provide a basis for the government to formulate emission-reduction policies.
Author Contributions
Finanzierung
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Huang, M.T.; Zhai, P.M. Achieving Paris Agreement temperature goals requires carbon neutrality by middle century with far-reaching transitions in the whole society. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 2021, 12, 281–286. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Salvia, M.; Reckien, D.; Pietrapertosa, F.; Eckersley, P.; Spyridaki, N.A.; Krook-Riekkola, A.; Olazabal, M.; Hurtado, S.D.G.; Simoes, S.G.; Geneletti, D. Will climate mitigation ambitions lead to carbon neutrality? An analysis of the local-level plans of 327 cities in the EU. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2021, 135, 110253. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ma, X.J.; Wang, C.X.; Dong, B.Y.; Gu, G.C.; Chen, R.M.; Li, Y.F.; Zou, H.F.; Zhang, W.F.; Li, Q.N. Carbon emissions from energy consumption in China: Its measurement and driving factors. Sci. Total Environ. 2019, 648, 1411–1420. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Mallapaty, S. How China could be carbon neutral by mid-century. Nature 2020, 586, 482–483. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Normile, D. China’s bold climate pledge earns praise—But is it feasible? Science 2020, 370, 17. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Giesekam, J.; Tingley, D.D.; Cotton, I. Aligning carbon targets for construction with (inter)national climate change mitigation commitments. Energy Build. 2018, 165, 106–117. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ali, K.A.; Ahmad, M.I.; Yusup, Y. Issues, Impacts, and Mitigations of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Building Sector. Sustainability 2020, 12, 7427. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- International Energy Agency. World Energy Statistics and Balance (Database). 2020. Available online: https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2020/energy-balances (accessed on 26 December 2021).
- International Energy Agency. Energy Technology Outlook, Building Model. 2020. Available online: https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2020/outlook (accessed on 26 December 2021).
- Huang, L.Z.; Krigsvoll, G.; Johansen, F.; Liu, Y.P.; Zhang, X.L. Carbon emission of global construction sector. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2018, 81, 1906–1916. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Zhang, S.C.; Wang, K.; Xu, W.; Iyer-Raniga, U.; Athienitis, A.; Ge, H.; Cho, D.W.; Feng, W.; Okumiya, M.; Yoon, G. Policy recommendations for the zero-energy building promotion towards carbon neutral in Asia-Pacific Region. Energy Policy 2021, 159, 112661. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Building Energy Efficiency Research Center of Tsinghua University. China Building Energy Efficiency Annual Development Research Report 2020; China Construction Industry Press: Beijing, China, 2020. [Google Scholar]
- Zhang, X.C.; Wang, F.L. Hybrid input-output analysis for life-cycle energy consumption and carbon emissions of China’s building sector. Build. Environ. 2016, 104, 188–197. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Li, K.; Ma, M.D.; Xiang, X.W.; Feng, W.; Ma, Z.L.; Cai, W.G.; Ma, X. Carbon reduction in commercial building operations: A provincial retrospection in China. Appl. Energy 2021, 306, 118098. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sun, Z.; Ma, Z.; Ma, M.; Cai, W.; Xiang, X.; Zhang, S.; Chen, M.; Chen, L. Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality in the Building Sector: A Bibliometric Review. Buildings 2022, 12, 128. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chen, M.X.; Ma, M.D.; Lin, Y.C.; Ma, Z.L.; Li, K. Carbon Kuznets curve in China’s building operations: Retrospective and prospective trajectories. Sci. Total Environ. 2021, 803, 150104. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Ma, M.; Ma, X.; Cai, W.; Cai, W. Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak. Appl. Energy 2020, 273, 115247. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Onat, N.C.; Kucukvar, M. Carbon footprint of construction industry: A global review and supply chain analysis. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2020, 124, 109783. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shi, Q.W.; Ren, H.; Cai, W.G.; Gao, J.X. How to Set the Proper CO2 Reduction Targets for the Provincial Building Sector of China? Sustainability 2020, 12, 10432. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lu, Y.J.; Cui, P.; Li, D.Z. Carbon emissions and policies in China’s building and construction industry: Evidence from 1994 to 2012. Build. Environ. 2016, 95, 94–103. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Jackson, D.J.; Kaesehage, K. Addressing the challenges of integrating carbon calculation tools in the construction industry. Bus. Strategy Environ. 2020, 29, 2973–2983. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Liu, G.W.; Chen, R.D.; Xu, P.P.; Fu, Y.; Mao, C.; Hong, J.K. Real-time carbon emission monitoring in prefabricated construction. Autom. Constr. 2020, 110, 102945. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chen, J.D.; Shi, Q.; Shen, L.Y.; Huang, Y.; Wu, Y. What makes the difference in construction carbon emissions between China and USA? Sustain. Cities Soc. 2019, 44, 604–613. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Li, S.Y.; Wu, Q.S.; Zheng, Y.; Sun, Q. Study on the Spatial Association and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from the Chinese Construction Industry. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1728. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Abeydeera, L.H.U.W.; Mesthrige, J.W.; Samarasinghalage, T.I. Perception of Embodied Carbon Mitigation Strategies: The Case of Sri Lankan Construction Industry. Sustainability 2019, 11, 3030. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Sicignano, E.; Di Ruocco, G.; Melella, R. Mitigation Strategies for Reduction of Embodied Energy and Carbon, in the Construction Systems of Contemporary Quality Architecture. Sustainability 2019, 11, 3806. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Kang, G.; Kim, T.; Kim, Y.W.; Cho, H.; Kang, K.I. Statistical analysis of embodied carbon emission for building construction. Energy Build. 2015, 105, 326–333. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Robati, M.; Oldfield, P.; Nezhad, A.A.; Carmichael, D.G.; Kuru, A. Carbon value engineering: A framework for integrating embodied carbon and cost reduction strategies in building design. Build. Environ. 2021, 192, 107620. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Oh, B.K.; Glisic, B.; Lee, S.H.; Cho, T.; Park, H.S. Comprehensive investigation of embodied carbon emissions, costs, design parameters, and serviceability in optimum green construction of two-way slabs in buildings. J. Clean. Prod. 2019, 222, 111–128. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Monahan, J.; Powell, J.C. An embodied carbon and energy analysis of modern methods of construction in housing A case study using a lifecycle assessment framework. Energy Build. 2011, 43, 179–188. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Brooks, M.; Abdellatif, M.; Alkhaddar, R. Application of life cycle carbon assessment for a sustainable building design: A case study in the UK. Int. J. Green Energy 2021, 18, 351–362. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ng, S.T.; Wong, J.M.W.; Skitmore, S.; Veronika, A. Carbon dioxide reduction in the building life cycle: A critical review. Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng.-Eng. Sustain. 2012, 165, 281–292. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Bai, J.; Qu, J.S. Investigating the spatiotemporal variability and driving factors of China’s building embodied carbon emissions. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 2021, 28, 19186–19201. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Yildirim, A.E.; Yildirim, M.O. Revisiting the determinants of carbon emissions for Turkey: The role of construction sector. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 2021, 28, 42325–42338. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Shi, Q.; Chen, J.D.; Shen, L.Y. Driving factors of the changes in the carbon emissions in the Chinese construction industry. J. Clean. Prod. 2017, 166, 615–627. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Li, D.Z.; Huang, G.Y.; Zhang, G.M.; Wang, J.B. Driving factors of total carbon emissions from the construction industry in Jiangsu Province, China. J. Clean. Prod. 2020, 276, 123179. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- He, J.H.; Yue, Q.; Li, Y.; Zhao, F.; Wang, H.M. Driving force analysis of carbon emissions in China’s building industry: 2000–2015. Sustain. Cities Soc. 2020, 60, 102268. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Erdogan, S. Dynamic Nexus between Technological Innovation and Building Sector Carbon Emissions in the BRICS Countries. J. Environ. Manag. 2021, 293, 112780. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Liu, H.X.; Lin, B.Q. Energy substitution, efficiency, and the effects of carbon taxation: Evidence from China’s building construction industry. J. Clean. Prod. 2017, 141, 1134–1144. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Du, Q.; Lu, X.R.; Li, Y.; Wu, M.; Bai, L.B.; Yu, M. Carbon Emissions in China’s Construction Industry: Calculations, Factors and Regions. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 1220. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Ma, M.; Cai, W.; Cai, W. Carbon abatement in China’s commercial building sector: A bottom-up measurement model based on Kaya-LMDI methods. Energy 2018, 165, 350–368. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ma, M.D.; Shen, L.Y.; Ren, H.; Cai, W.G.; Ma, Z.L. How to Measure Carbon Emission Reduction in China’s Public Building Sector: Retrospective Decomposition Analysis Based on STIRPAT Model in 2000–2015. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1744. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Xiang, X.; Ma, X.; Ma, Z.; Ma, M.; Cai, W. Python-LMDI: A Tool for Index Decomposition Analysis of Building Carbon Emissions. Buildings 2022, 12, 83. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Xiang, X.; Ma, X.; Ma, Z.; Ma, M. Operational Carbon Change in Commercial Buildings under the Carbon Neutral Goal: A LASSO–WOA Approach. Buildings 2022, 12, 54. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Yang, J.; Cai, W.; Ma, M.D.; Li, L.; Liu, C.H.; Ma, X.; Li, L.L.; Chen, X.Z. Driving forces of China’s CO2 emissions from energy consumption based on Kaya-LMDI methods. Sci. Total Environ. 2020, 711, 134569. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Zhou, N.; Khanna, N.; Feng, W.; Ke, J.; Levine, M. Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO 2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050. Nat. Energy 2018, 3, 978–984. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chen, H.; Wang, L.N.; Chen, W.Y. Modeling on building sector’s carbon mitigation in China to achieve the 1.5 degrees C climate target. Energy Effic. 2019, 12, 483–496. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shi, Q.W.; Ren, H.; Cai, W.G.; Gao, J.X. How to set the proper level of carbon tax in the context of Chinese construction sector? A CGE analysis. J. Clean. Prod. 2019, 240, 117955. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Li, B.; Han, S.W.; Wang, Y.F.; Li, J.Y.; Wang, Y. Feasibility assessment of the carbon emissions peak in China’s construction industry: Factor decomposition and peak forecast. Sci. Total Environ. 2020, 706, 135716. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Tan, X.C.; Lai, H.P.; Gu, B.H.; Zeng, Y.; Li, H. Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China’s building sector through 2050. Energy Policy 2018, 118, 429–439. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chen, X.; Shuai, C.Y.; Wu, Y.; Zhang, Y. Analysis on the carbon emission peaks of China’s industrial, building, transport, and agricultural sectors. Sci. Total Environ. 2020, 709, 135768. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chen, H.; Chen, W.Y. Carbon mitigation of China’s building sector on city-level: Pathway and policy implications by a low-carbon province case study. J. Clean. Prod. 2019, 224, 207–217. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhang, S.C.; Yang, X.Y.; Xu, W.; Fu, Y.J. Contribution of nearly-zero energy buildings standards enforcement to achieve carbon neutral in urban area by 2060. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 2021, 12, 734–743. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhang, S.F.; Ma, M.D.; Kai, L.; Ma, Z.L.; Feng, W.; Cai, W.G. Historical carbon abatement in the commercial building operation: China versus the US. Energy Econ. 2021, 105, 105712. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chen, L.; Cai, W.G.; Ma, M.D. Decoupling or delusion? Mapping carbon emission per capita based on the human development index in Southwest China. Sci. Total Environ. 2020, 741, 138722. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Liang, Y.; Cai, W.G.; Ma, M.D. Carbon dioxide intensity and income level in the Chinese megacities’ residential building sector: Decomposition and decoupling analyses. Sci. Total Environ. 2019, 677, 315–327. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Ma, M.D.; Cai, W.; Cai, W.G.; Dong, L. Whether carbon intensity in the commercial building sector decouples from economic development in the service industry? Empirical evidence from the top five urban agglomerations in China. J. Clean. Prod. 2019, 222, 193–205. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chastas, P.; Theodosiou, T.; Kontoleon, K.J.; Bikas, D. Normalising and assessing carbon emissions in the building sector: A review on the embodied CO2 emissions of residential buildings. Build. Environ. 2018, 130, 212–226. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mata, E.; Korpal, A.K.; Cheng, S.H.; Navarro, J.P.J.; Filippidou, F.; Reyna, J.; Wang, R. A map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings worldwide. Environ. Res. Lett. 2020, 15, 113003. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Raza, M.S.; Khahro, S.H.; Memon, S.A.; Ali, T.H.; Memon, N.A. Global trends in research on carbon footprint of buildings during 1971–2021: A bibliometric investigation. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 2021, 28, 63227–63236. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ma, M.; Cai, W.; Wu, Y. China Act on the Energy Efficiency of Civil Buildings (2008): A decade review. Sci. Total Environ. 2019, 651, 42–60. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wiedenhofer, D.; Virag, D.; Kalt, G.; Plank, B.; Streeck, J.; Pichler, M.; Mayer, A.; Krausmann, F.; Brockway, P.; Schaffartzik, A. A Systematic Review of the Evidence on Decoupling of GDP, Resource Use and GHG Emissions, Part I: Bibliometric and Conceptual Mapping. Environ. Res. Lett. 2020, 15, 063002. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Haberl, H.; Wiedenhofer, D.; Virag, D.; Kalt, G.; Plank, B.; Brockway, P.; Fishman, T.; Hausknost, D.; Krausmann, F.; Leon-Gruchalski, B. A Systematic Review of the Evidence on Decoupling of GDP, Resource Use and GHG Emissions, Part II: Synthesizing the Insights. Environ. Res. Lett. 2020, 15, 065003. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Frodyma, K.; Papiez, M.; Smiech, S. Decoupling Economic Growth from Fossil Fuel Use-Evidence from 141 Countries in the 25-Year Perspective. Energies 2020, 13, 6671. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Yasmeen, H.; Tan, Q.M. Assessing Pakistan’s energy use, environmental degradation, and economic progress based on Tapio decoupling model. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 2021, 28, 68364–68378. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Mikayilov, J.I.; Hasanov, F.J.; Galeotti, M. Decoupling of CO2 emissions and GDP: A time-varying cointegration approach. Ecol. Indic. 2018, 95, 615–628. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Li, Y.N.; Cai, M.M.; Wu, K.Y.; Wei, J.C. Decoupling analysis of carbon emission from construction land in Shanghai. J. Clean. Prod. 2019, 210, 25–34. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Guo, S.S.; Wang, Y.H.; Huang, J.; Dong, J.H.; Zhang, J. Decoupling and Decomposition Analysis of Land Natural Capital Utilization and Economic Growth: A Case Study in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 646. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Indicators to Measure Decoupling of Environmental Pressure and Economic Growth; OECD: Paris, Franch, 2002. [Google Scholar]
- Casadio Tarabusi, E.; Guarini, G. An axiomatic approach to decoupling indicators for green growth. Ecol. Indic. 2018, 84, 515–524. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Pesce, A. The Decoupling of Emerging Economies: Theoretical and Empirical Puzzle. J. Econ. Surv. 2017, 31, 602–631. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Tapio, P. Towards a theory of decoupling: Degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001. Transp. Policy 2005, 12, 137–151. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Longhofer, W.; Jorgenson, A. Decoupling reconsidered: Does world society integration influence the relationship between the environment and economic development? Soc. Sci. Res. 2017, 65, 17–29. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Song, Y.; Sun, J.J.; Zhang, M.; Su, B. Using the Tapio-Z decoupling model to evaluate the decoupling status of China’s CO2 emissions at provincial level and its dynamic trend. Struct. Change Econ. Dyn. 2020, 52, 120–129. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lu, Z.W.; Wang, H.M.; Yue, Q. Decoupling Analysis of the Environmental Mountainwith Case Studies from China. J. Ind. Ecol. 2015, 19, 1082–1090. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wang, H.; Xia, S.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, P. Has China’s Construction Waste Change Been Decoupled from Economic Growth? Buildings 2022, 12, 147. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Guan, X.Y.; Wang, S.L.; Gao, Z.Y.; Lv, Y.; Fu, X.J. Spatio-temporal variability of soil salinity and its relationship with the depth to groundwater in salinization irrigation district. Acta Ecol. Sin. 2012, 32, 198–206. [Google Scholar]
- Zhao, S.; Yan, Y.; Han, J. Industrial Land Change in Chinese Silk Road Cities and Its Influence on Environments. Land 2021, 10, 806. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhao, S.; Li, W.; Zhao, K.; Zhang, P. Change Characteristics and Multilevel Influencing Factors of Real Estate Inventory—Case Studies from 35 Key Cities in China. Land 2021, 10, 928. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Miyamoto, S.; Chacon, A.; Hossain, M.; Martinez, L. Soil salinity of urban turf areas irrigated with saline water I. Spatial variability. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2005, 71, 233–241. [Google Scholar]
- Shi, Q.W.; Gao, J.X.; Wang, X.; Ren, H.; Cai, W.G.; Wei, H.F. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Carbon Emission Intensity of Urban Residential Buildings: Testing the Effect of Economics and Geographic Location in China. Sustainability 2020, 12, 2695. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Chuai, X.W.; Huang, X.J.; Lu, Q.L.; Zhang, M.; Zhao, R.Q.; Lu, J.Y. Spatiotemporal Changes of Built-Up Land Expansion and Carbon Emissions Caused by the Chinese Construction Industry. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2015, 49, 13021–13030. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Jiang, R.; Li, R.R. Decomposition and Decoupling Analysis of Life-Cycle Carbon Emission in China’s Building Sector. Sustainability 2017, 9, 793. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Li, W.; Sun, W.; Li, G.M.; Cui, P.F.; Wu, W.; Jin, B.H. Temporal and spatial heterogeneity of carbon intensity in China’s construction industry. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2017, 126, 162–173. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Du, Q.; Zhou, J.; Pan, T.; Sun, Q.; Wu, M. Relationship of carbon emissions and economic growth in China’s construction industry. J. Clean. Prod. 2019, 2020, 99–109. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chi, Y.Y.; Liu, Z.R.; Wang, X.; Zhang, Y.Y.; Wei, F. Provincial CO2 Emission Measurement and Analysis of the Construction Industry under China’s Carbon Neutrality Target. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1876. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wu, Y.; Chau, K.W.; Lu, W.S.; Shen, L.Y.; Shuai, C.Y.; Chen, J.D. Decoupling relationship between economic output and carbon emission in the Chinese construction industry. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2018, 71, 60–69. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Li, R.R.; Jiang, R. Moving Low-Carbon Construction Industry in Jiangsu Province: Evidence from Decomposition and Decoupling Models. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1013. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Du, Q.; Wu, M.; Xu, Y.D.; Lu, X.R.; Bai, L.B.; Yu, M. Club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of carbon intensity in China’s construction industry. Nat. Hazards 2018, 94, 519–536. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Du, Q.; Wu, M.; Wang, N.; Bai, L.B. Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China’s Construction Industry Carbon Intensity. Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2017, 26, 2507–2521. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Lu, N.; Feng, S.Y.; Liu, Z.M.; Wang, W.D.; Lu, H.L.; Wang, M. The Determinants of Carbon Emissions in the Chinese Construction Industry: A Spatial Analysis. Sustainability 2020, 12, 1428. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Schreyer, F.; Luderer, G.; Rodrigues, R.; Pietzcker, R.C.; Baumstark, L.; Sugiyama, M.; Brecha, R.J.; Ueckerdt, F. Common but differentiated leadership: Strategies and challenges for carbon neutrality by 2050 across industrialized economies. Environ. Res. Lett. 2020, 15, 114016. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wu, P.; Song, Y.Z.; Zhu, J.B.; Chang, R.D. Analyzing the influence factors of the carbon emissions from China’s building and construction industry from 2000 to 2015. J. Clean. Prod. 2019, 221, 552–566. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- You, K.R.; Yu, Y.H.; Li, Y.L.; Cai, W.G.; Shi, Q.W. Spatiotemporal decomposition analysis of carbon emissions on Chinese residential central heating. Energy Build. 2021, 253, 111485. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wang, H.; Chen, W.; Shi, J. Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets. Appl. Energy 2018, 222, 148–157. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wang, Y.; Zhao, J.Y.; Li, Z.X.; Liu, X.R.; Zhou, J. Study on decoupling effect and driving factors of carbon emission and economic growth in northeast China. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2019, 42, 190–197. [Google Scholar]
- Zang, H.K.; Zhang, L.R.; Xu, Y.; Li, W. Dynamic Input-Output Analysis of a Carbon Emission System at the Aggregated and Disaggregated Levels: A Case Study in the Northeast Industrial District. Sustainability 2020, 12, 2708. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Zhou, W.Z.; Yu, W.H. Regional Variation in the Carbon Dioxide Emission Efficiency of Construction Industry in China: Based on the Three-Stage DEA Model. Discret. Dyn. Nat. Soc. 2021, 2021, 4021947. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhang, M.N.; Li, L.S.; Cheng, Z.H. Research on carbon emission efficiency in the Chinese construction industry based on three-stage DEA-Tobit model. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 2021, 28, 51120–51136. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Pan, W.; Ning, Y. A socio-technical framework of zero-carbon building policies. Build. Res. Inf. 2015, 43, 94–110. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zuo, J.; Read, B.; Pullen, S.; Shi, Q. Achieving carbon neutrality in commercial building developments—Perceptions of the construction industry. Habitat Int. 2012, 36, 278–286. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Blazquez, J.; Martin-Moreno, J.M.; Perez, R.; Ruiz, J. Aiming for Carbon Neutrality: Which Environmental Taxes Does Spain Need by 2030? Econ. Energy Environ. Policy 2021, 10, 215–227. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Du, Q.; Yan, Y.Q.; Huang, Y.D.; Hao, C.C.; Wu, J. Evolutionary Games of Low-Carbon Behaviors of Construction Stakeholders under Carbon Taxes. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 508. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Willson, R.W.; Brown, K.D. Carbon Neutrality at the Local Level: Achievable Goal or Fantasy? J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 2008, 74, 497–504. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhao, S.; Zhang, P.; Li, W. A Study on Evaluation of Influencing Factors for Sustainable Development of Smart Construction Enterprises: Case Study from China. Buildings 2021, 11, 221. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Pokhrel, S.R.; Hewage, K.; Chhipi-Shrestha, G.; Karunathilake, H.; Sadiq, R. Carbon capturing for emissions reduction at building level: A market assessment from a building management perspective. J. Clean. Prod. 2021, 294, 126323. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhang, L.; Liu, B.; Du, J.; Liu, C.L.; Li, H.X.; Wang, S. Internationalization trends of carbon emission linkages: A case study on the construction sector. J. Clean. Prod. 2020, 270, 122433. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Fenner, A.E.; Kibert, C.J.; Woo, J.; Morque, S.; Razkenari, M.; Hakim, H.; Lu, X.S. The carbon footprint of buildings: A review of methodologies and applications. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2018, 94, 1142–1152. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhang, S.; Xiang, X.; Ma, Z.; Ma, M.; Zou, C. Carbon Neutral Roadmap of Commercial Building Operations by Mid-Century: Lessons from China. Buildings 2021, 11, 510. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Field | Typical View | Representative Author |
---|---|---|
Monitoring and Prediction | Insufficient construction carbon-emission statistics and complex detection systems and estimation tools constrain the calculation and prediction of construction carbon emissions, promoting the whole-industry chain and life-cycle construction carbon emissions; construction implied carbon-emission prediction to be a new research trend. | Monahan (2011), Ng (2012), Kang (2015), Chastas (2017), Oh (2019), Jackson (2020), Liu (2020), Robati (2021), Brooks (2021), etc. |
Driving Mechanism | Carbon-emission changes in the construction industry are the result of the combined effects and interactions of multiple factors, and the use of regression models, indexes, and structural decomposition to analyze the driving mechanism has become a key research area. | Shi (2017), He (2020), Yang (2020), Erdogan (2021), Yildirim (2021), Zhang (2021), Xiang (2022), etc. |
Scenario simulation | Focus is placed on the prediction and analysis of carbon-peaking and carbon-neutralization time nodes in the construction industry, with a strong emphasis on the simulation and modeling of carbon emissions and their trends in the construction industry in various situations. | Zhou (2018), Tan (2018), Che (2019), Shi (2019), Li (2020), Chen (2020), Huo (2021), Zhang (2021), etc. |
Decoupling relationship | Research on the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions from the construction industry and income level, human development index (HDI), and economic development has become an emerging research hotspot, but not sufficient in depth and breadth. | Liang (2019), Ma (2019), Huo (2020), Chen (2020), etc. |
Decoupling Type | Policy Enlightenment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Decoupling | Strong | ≤0 | ≥0 | ≤0 | Best, with economic growth accompanied by reduced carbon emissions |
Weak | >0 | >0 | (0, 0.8] | Second best, with economic growth greater than carbon emissions’ growth | |
Recessive | <0 | <0 | (1.2, +∞) | In negative growth, with carbon-emission deceleration greater than economic deceleration | |
Coupling | Expansive | >0 | >0 | (0.8, 1.2] | Carbon emissions are growing largely in step with the economy |
Recessive | <0 | <0 | (0.8, 1.2] | Carbon emissions are declining largely in step with the economy | |
Negative Decoupling | Strong | >0 | <0 | <0 | Worst, with economic slowdown accompanied by increased carbon emissions |
Weak | <0 | <0 | (0, 0.8] | Second worst, with economic slowdown greater than carbon emissions’ slowdown | |
Expansive | >0 | >0 | (1.2, +∞) | Economic growth is less than carbon-emission growth |
2010 | 2015 | 2019 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon Emission | −0.20 | −0.04 ※ | −0.06 ※ | |
Carbon-Emission Intensity | Gross Output Value | −0.01 ※ | −0.03 ※ | −0.01 ※ |
Added Value | −0.07 ※ | −0.14 ※ | −0.10 ※ | |
Total Profit | 0.06 ※ | 0.01 ※ | 0.01 ※ |
2010–2014 | 2015–2019 | |
---|---|---|
Gross Output Value | 0.05 ※ | 0.20 |
Added Value | 0.13 ※ | 0.14 |
Total Profit | 0.15 | 0.08 ※ |
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. |
© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Zhang, P.; Hu, J.; Zhao, K.; Chen, H.; Zhao, S.; Li, W. Dynamics and Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Construction Industry in China. Buildings 2022, 12, 257. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings12030257
Zhang P, Hu J, Zhao K, Chen H, Zhao S, Li W. Dynamics and Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Construction Industry in China. Buildings. 2022; 12(3):257. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings12030257
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Ping, Jing Hu, Kaixu Zhao, Hua Chen, Sidong Zhao, and Weiwei Li. 2022. "Dynamics and Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Construction Industry in China" Buildings 12, no. 3: 257. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings12030257