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Talk:2020 Guinean parliamentary election

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September?

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Since we are now in September, do we have any evidence this election is actually going to happen this months?--Batmacumba (talk) 20:03, 3 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

@Batmacumba: Good question. I did a quick search for "Guinée législatives" and there definitely seems to be an election campaign, but I also found a couple of articles that said they were due to be held in 2019.[1][2]. These and sources suggests January 2019, so shall we take that as the best estimate right now? Number 57 20:38, 3 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]
Yes, and it should be removed from the 2018 election calendar.--Batmacumba (talk) 21:06, 3 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Numbers

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@Number 57: In the document by the Ceni, the number of votes per party seem to be the sum of the left column ("Suffrages obtenus") and right one ("Reste des suffrages"). Only then do you get to the total of 2 879 944 valid votes. Note that, like with the referendum, those are preliminary results from 84,20 % of the voting stations. Cordially.--Aréat (talk) 19:32, 3 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]

@Aréat: Thanks, I couldn't work out what the issue was. The numbers are still very odd – numerous parties with vote totals ending in 0... Number 57 19:35, 3 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
The right column is due to the way the seats are given. There's no percentage threshold, seats are allowed by using the "quotient national", made by dividing the total number of valid votes by the number of seats (here 2,879,944/76 = 37,894). Lists gain a seat for each time they get that quotient. For example, RPG with 1,591,599 votes got it 42.0013 times, so it got 42 seats, and 51 remaining votes. The remaining "unused" votes are totalled for each parties, and because of fractioning there were 6 remaining seats. The latter are given to the parties with the biggest number of unused votes, including those who had no seats by the quotient national method. Thus, and I'm realising this just now, I'm pretty sure the numbers shouldn't be added for the parties who had no seats in the left column, as the unused votes are just their votes in the first place. Yet the right column does make a total of 113,681. I don't quite understand either. That and the numbers often looking like round up are maybe due to the results being provisory and a partial count of 84,20 % of the total. Electoral fraud is also possible considering the situation.--Aréat (talk) 19:57, 3 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
I decided to leave the numbers out for now as something about them just doesn't look right. Let's see what happens with the final results... Number 57 20:33, 3 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
I agree. Better to just wait.--Aréat (talk) 00:32, 4 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
@Number 57: Well, the constitutionnal court published the definitive results, which only contain the number of overall valid/invalid votes/registered voters/turnout and seat per parties. They're exactly the same as in the provisory results : [3]. I tend to think the commission simply split the two column as to give seats, but adding both does give the total by parties, as their total add up to give the final total of valid votes. --Aréat (talk) 19:07, 19 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
So does this mean we just leave the results as they are and remove the 'preliminary' heading? Number 57 20:05, 19 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
I was thinking of adding the two column from the file as the vote column here, and calculate the percenatage. What do you think? --Aréat (talk) 00:01, 20 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
Ah yes, sorry, I thought you were talking about columns in the CC file and have only just twigged you were talking about the CENI file. Yes, that seems to be the correct thing to do. The individual constituency results are also available starting here and then scrolling through pages to the right using the blue boxes at the bottom if anyone fancies adding the totals up :) Number 57 00:16, 20 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
That doesn't seem like an impossible task. I will look into it in the next few days.--Aréat (talk) 01:13, 21 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
@Number 57: Ah, it seem it actually will be one, as there's data for only 37 constituencies out of 38. :/ --Aréat (talk) 04:57, 21 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
@Aréat: I think you're missing Matam (the only one of the five communes of Conakry or prefectures missing from the list), which I found here. Cheers, Number 57 12:06, 21 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
Exactly! Thanks you N°57. I will go back at it.--Aréat (talk) 12:08, 21 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
@Number 57: Done. I uploaded the data to the french page, and will now do so here. Note that the only seat not won by RPG was won by Nouvelles forces démocratiques (NFD) in the Mamou constituency, which was the only one in which the RPG didn't have a candidate. Can you do the party list column ? Cordially.--Aréat (talk) 13:36, 21 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
Good work! I'll do the PR column later today. Cheers, Number 57 13:43, 21 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
Actually, the more I look at it, the more I am confused. On one hand, it looks like only the third column appears to be the actual votes received. The remainder is what is left after the electoral quotient is deducted from their figures, not in addition to their figures. For, example, for the RPG, the quotient (37,894) goes into their vote total 42 times (1,519,548), with 51 votes remaining to get to their vote total of 1,591,599. The 51 votes in the fifth column is not in addition to their vote total. For parties that didn't win seats, the remainder is their whole vote total. If we go on this basis, including the fifth column, it looks like we may be double counting remainder votes.
On the other hand,it looks like CENI must have started off with a valid vote total of 2,879,944 to get the quotient. But then again, I noticed that that figure divides exactly by 76 to get a whole number, which seems too much of a coincidence. And there is also one oddity - the final party (PAG) has 1,276 votes obtained and 1,274 as its remainder.
The only possible explanation I can think of is that remainders are halved and half the remainder gets left in the 'suffrages obtenus' column and half gets left in the 'reste' column. But all this, combined with the number of votes ending in 0, really makes me think something is wrong here. One thing that really stands out is that after the three main parties, there are three 'clusters; of parties all with almost identical vote totals; six parties have around 76,000 votes (just enough to win two seats); nine parties have around 38,000 votes (just enough to win one seat) and six parties have around 14,000 votes (all of which got the remainder seats). None of these three groups varies by more than 1,000 from the figures I state. This makes me wonder whether the results have been somehow back-calculated from the valid vote total (which in itself is suspicious as it happens to be an exact multiplier of 76) and then tweaked a little so they don't all look the same, or simply just rigged to give these parties seats. Number 57 14:21, 21 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
I believe you're right with this last hypothesis. Having followed the country' politics since a few years to write the french article, I don't doubt a second all these numbers are forged and fraudulent to the core. I only wish there were some article pointing out these data "anomalies" so that they could be stated properly in the page. Next presidential election this year will likely be of the same nature.--Aréat (talk) 17:35, 21 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
Anyway, I suppose they are the 'official' results, so we should still add them? Number 57 17:57, 21 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
Well, yes. Results being obviously rigged are still shown there when they're the officials ones, as far as I know. With of course the mention that they're suspected being as such, when there's sources of it.--Aréat (talk) 19:27, 22 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
@Aréat: I've added the figures. I also noticed there is a difference of 3,359 between the total of the constituency votes and the total - do you want to double check it? Number 57 21:02, 22 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]
I double checked it, and I gave 1 vote more to PDC, and 3000 less to invalid votes. I will correct that. I don't know what happened for the remaining disreptancy.--Aréat (talk) 23:27, 22 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I can confirm the Union des Forces Démocratiques de Guinée (UFDG), led by former Prime minister Cellou Dalein Diallo is one of the major opposition parties boycotting the election. The Union des forces démocratiques (UFD) is a minor party, probably created with this confusing name on purpose. Source in french: [4].--Aréat (talk) 02:45, 5 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]

@Aréat: I found the error in the constituency totals. Invalid ballots were 252,939 not 252,940 while the RPG total was 2,417,836 not 2,417,476 (I assume this was a transposition error as the difference is divisible by 9. See the table below. Cheers, Number 57 22:00, 6 August 2021 (UTC)[reply]
Constituency Total Invalid UPR RPC AeC MPDG NFD UFD GDE RDIG PDND UDG NGR RRD PDC UDIR AFC PNV
Beyla 123996 5149 100478 6918 11451
Boffa 34095 1754 20132 12209
Boke 193712 96355 74835 6559 15963
Coyah 90330 4763 77857 7710
Dabola 62421 3178 59243
Dalaba 766 101 108 371 165 21
Dinguiraye 59240 1120 58120
Dixinn 47800 32447 706 9362 510 1814 2961
Dubreka 74173 4654 56238 3209 4641 5431
Faranah 124858 4919 110670 9269
Forecariah 72403 2652 69751
Fria 20427 2443 14403 2248 1333
Gaoual 37670 2978 34692
Gueckdou 84659 7148 53610 23901
Kaloum 25388 3018 15206 3323 3841
Kankan 429373 8587 399747 21039
Kankan 234151 5969 210584 6663 6237 4698
Kerouane 93186 274 92912
Kindia 78664 10861 40731 11335 9068 6669
Kissidougou 115326 3289 98516 13521
Koubia 8064 219 1489 6356
Koundara 17978 1362 16616
Kouroussa 136670 1929 129262 4251 1228
Labe 2934 195 282 2076 381
Lelouma 14245 190 1747 12308
Lola 51277 11127 29369 2743 8038
Macenta 90424 6711 83713
Mali 8293 154 2344 5795
Mamou 51028 190 50838
Mandiana 194613 1018 184803 8792
Matam 44105 3765 40340
Matoto 126022 14748 93465 17809
Nzerekore 102427 3674 91875 6878
Pita 7402 459 2232 4711
Ratoma 49558 1500 2179 31940 1078 3481 9380
Telemele 15215 782 3510 10923
Tougue 13280 288 12992
Yomou 31914 2969 17707 6248 4990
Total 2968087 252939 14597 2417836 74343 4711 13923 31671 23901 1333 56085 12917 10608 16441 24046 4698 8038
@Number 57: Thanks a lot for your work! It finally make sense.--Aréat (talk) 10:23, 8 August 2021 (UTC)[reply]