User:Ken McRitchie/sandbox5
Carlson's experiment
[edit]Astrology can be quantitatively tested by using blind experiment. The most renowned[1] of these is Shawn Carlson's double-blind chart matching tests in which he challenged 28 astrologers to match over 100 natal charts to psychological profiles generated by the California Psychological Inventory (CPI) test. When Carlson's study was published in Nature in 1985, his conclusion was that the predictions based on natal astrology in his tests were no better than chance, and that the testing "clearly refutes the astrological hypothesis".[2]
In one of Carlson's tests, success was based on whether astrologers could match the genuine CPI in sets of three CPIs against a natal chart as either their first or second choice. Because the third choices were measured at a rate no better than chance, Carlson concluded that the first two choices were made at a rate no better than chance.[3] In their other test, the astrologers were asked to rate the accuracy (on a scale of 1 to 10) of the same CPIs against the natal charts. Because the responses in the categories of the first, second, and third choices carried over from the chart matching test were no better than chance in this rating test, Carlson concluded that the rating responses were no better than chance.[4][5]
- ^ Muller, Richard (2010). "Web site of Richard A. Muller, Professor in the Department of Physics at the University of California at Berkeley,". Retrieved 2011-08-02. My former student Shawn Carlson published in Nature magazine the definitive scientific test of Astrology.
Maddox, Sir John (1995). "John Maddox, editor of the science journal Nature, commenting on Carlson's test". Retrieved 2011-08-02. " ... a perfectly convincing and lasting demonstration." - ^ Carlson, Shawn (1985). "A double-blind test of astrology" (PDF). Nature. 318 (6045): 419–425. Bibcode:1985Natur.318..419C. doi:10.1038/318419a0.
- ^ Carlson (1985). : 425.
{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires|journal=(help); Missing or empty|title=(help) "Since the rate at which the astrologers chose the correct CPI as their third place choice was consistent with chance, we conclude that the astrologers were unable to chose [sic] the correct CPI as their first or second choices at a significant level." - ^ Carlson (1985). : 423.
{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires|journal=(help); Missing or empty|title=(help) "Fig. 4 Graph showing percentage correct versus rating for astrologers first place choices in CPI profile natal chart matching. The best linear fit is consistent with the scientifically predicted line of zero slope." - ^ Carlson (1985). : 424.
{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires|journal=(help); Missing or empty|title=(help) "Fig. 6 Percentage of correct CPI profiles versus rates, chosen by astrologers as their second (a) and third (b) place choice. Best linear fits are consistent with chance."