User:Steve Quinn/Technological innovation peak
A technological innovation peak may have been reached during the final quarter of the 19th century, as argued by Jonathan Huebner, a physicist working at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center, in China Lake, California. [1] He argued on the basis of both U.S. patents and world technological breakthroughs, per capita, that the rate of human technological innovation peaked in 1873 and has been slowing ever since.[2] In his article, he asked "Will the level of technology reach a maximum and then decline as in the Dark Ages?"[2] In later comments to New Scientist magazine, Huebner clarified that while he believed that we will reach a rate of innovation in 2024 equivalent to that of the Dark Ages, he was not predicting the reoccurrence of the Dark Ages themselves. [3]
His paper received some mainstream news coverage at the time.[4]
The claim has been met with criticism by John Smart, founder of the Acceleration Studies Foundation, who asserted that research by technological singularity researcher Ray Kurzweil and others showed a "clear trend of acceleration, not deceleration" when it came to innovations.[5] However, in 2010, Joseph A. Tainter, Deborah Strumsky, and José Lobo confirmed Huebner's findings using U.S. Patent Office data.[6]
References
[edit]- ^ Most of this article has been copied from an article, currently under discussion here. This is a proposed alternate article.
- ^ a b Huebner, J. (2005). "A possible declining trend for worldwide innovation". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 72 (8): 980–986. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.01.003.
- ^ Adler, Robert (02 July 2005). "Entering a dark age of innovation". New Scientist. Retrieved 30 May 2013.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Hayden, Thomas (July 7, 2005). "Science: Wanna be an inventor? Don't bother". U.S News and World Report. Retrieved 10 June 2013.
- ^ Smart, J. (2005). "Discussion of Huebner article". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 72 (8): 988–995. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.07.001.
- ^ Strumsky, D.; Lobo, J.; Tainter, J. A. (2010). "Complexity and the productivity of innovation". Systems Research and Behavioral Science. 27 (5): 496. doi:10.1002/sres.1057.
Further reading
[edit]- Jones, Benjamin F. (Jan 2009). "The Burden of Knowledge and the "Death of the Renaissance Man": Is Innovation Getting Harder?" (Free PDF download). Review of Economic Studies. 76 (1): 283–317. doi:10.1111/j.1467. Retrieved 2013-06-16.
{{cite journal}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter:|coauthors=(help) Also see 01 September 2004 version. Some articles that cite this article, on the journal web site.
- Coates, Joseph. "A visible end to innovation? I think not." Research-Technology Management Nov.-Dec. 2005: 5+. Academic OneFile. Web. 17 June 2013.
- Huebner, Jonathan. "Discussion of Coates' commentary." Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73.7 (2006): 906+. Academic OneFile. Web. 17 June 2013
External links
[edit]- "A Possible Declining Trend for Worldwide Innovation" Jonathan Huebner's paper