MUFG

The question of when markets will start “pricing in” climate volatility and the energy transition is a recurring theme amongst monetary policymakers and the sustainability community. In this week’s MUFG Global Markets podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into a recent European Central Bank (ECB) report which suggests companies that are emitting the most carbon are paying rates 14 basis points higher, on average, than those charged to the ones emitting the least. Notwithstanding the challenges in zeroing in on climate risks on a standalone basis, these conclusions have profound implications for lenders and asset managers in systematically pricing in energy transition-linked risks on the path towards net zero. Listen in full here: https://bit.ly/3AxRL9f

We are delighted to share that the MUFG Tokyo headquarters' comprehensive Three-month Intensive Program "TIP" has successfully concluded. Designed to enhance skills and broaden perspectives, this program welcomed by 27 participants from our overseas offices. Going beyond traditional training, TIP has been a journey to nurture future leaders, offering a mix of operational training and immersive experiences. Participants had the opportunity to explore various departments, gaining valuable insights into our company's operations, culture, and history through engaging events. We recognize the importance of a solid foundation for your career, and this program represents our commitment to equipping you with the necessary tools and knowledge for success. It was an opportunity for participants to challenge themselves, expand their capabilities, and envision their future with us. As this program wraps up, we look forward to seeing how the participants will apply what they've learned and contribute to shaping the future of our business. For those who are ready to take the next step in their careers, we encourage you to keep an eye out for our future global training programs. Together, let's continue to shape the future of our business.

The limited return on investments (RoI), rather than the access to capital is increasingly being cited as a leading barrier to scaling the energy transition. To put this into perspective, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research: Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into MUFG’s latest ESG thought leadership report, titled, 'Energy transition’s “shortage of returns” - profitability (not capital) remains a critical barrier to decarbonisation' in this week’s MUFG Global Markets podcast. Listen in in full here: https://bit.ly/4ca7Qiw

In this week's MUFG Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of Japanese Client FX Sales, about why the US dollar could weaken further through this busy schedule of events and beyond. Listen in full here: https://bit.ly/3LIrcAM

This week George G., MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews a recent special topic from the latest Macro2Markets Monthly report, where the team has found that the last few years of higher nominal activity (boosted by higher prices given elevated inflation levels) has made the economy, company earnings, and market performance look better than what they truly are. George concludes by discussing the upcoming CPI report which should continue to point toward a lower reading as the disinflationary trends in the economy seem to be on track. The key area that the Macro Strategy team is focusing on is the evolution of shelter costs and is there finally a catch-up to more real-time measures of rental prices. #MacroStrategy #Fed #CPI http://ms.spr.ly/6042lJxVq

Are conditions falling into place for a weaker USD? In this week's MUFG Global Markets FX Week Ahead podcast, Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss the FX market implications from the UK and French elections. Will the USD continue to weaken in the week ahead following the release of the latest NFP report? Listen full here: https://bit.ly/3xKeDl3

As we come to the mid-point of the year Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of JC FX Sales, about MUFG’s forecasts and where the biggest divergences have been relative to expectations at the start of the year. Derek also talks through the scenarios for the French parliamentary elections ahead of the first round election on 30th June and what the implications could be for the euro. The political uncertainty could be intensifying during a key week of US economic data. Listen in full here: https://bit.ly/3zqJe7A

What is driving FX market performance? Central bank policies or political risk? In this week's MUFG Global Markets FX Week Ahead podcast, Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade from the Global Customer Marketing Group, discuss the latest central bank policy updates in Europe. Will the policy updates alter European currency performance ahead of the upcoming French elections? Listen in full here: https://bit.ly/4beh4tH

This week George G., MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, quickly reviews that first two weeks of June, which were macro event intense with various central bank meetings and inflation reports among other things. The more hawkish Fed event led to the strategy team pushing back their first Fed cut view to September from July. George believes the market becomes more technical-driven and less macro-focused into quarter-end. #MacroStrategy #Inflation #Fed http://ms.spr.ly/6045Y2BDT

George G., MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, gets us caught up on what has been happening in global macro and markets, with a focus on recapping the May NFP jobs report, which he believes wasn’t as strong as the headlines suggested, and that it is another report that demonstrates there are clearly macro divergences forming in various parts of the labor force. George also provides his thoughts on what to look out for in the CPI report, where we are waiting to see if the shelter costs ever come down enough to pull inflation readings lower. Meanwhile, the CPI report takes place ahead of the June FOMC meeting where we are keenly focused on the dots (interest rate estimates) and the terminal level estimates for the core PCE inflation reading published in the summary of economic projections (SEP) by the Fed. In addition, will Chair Powell sound dovish (and echo some of the same concerns that the strategy team has around the true health of the jobs market) or will Chair Powell be hawkish. Chair Powell has threaded the needle lately with his communications, but if markets deem that his message is hawkish, after a hawkish release of the dots, a major risk-off would be in store. http://ms.spr.ly/6045YvQrN #MacroStrategy #NFPJobsReport #CPIReport #Fed