No splashing the cash, no chance of a long honeymoon – Labour's difficult in-tray
With the economy struggling out of COVID, public services overwhelmed and instability abroad, Labour know it's a difficult inheritance. Here's what faces Sir Keir Starmer on day one.
Friday 5 July 2024 12:10, UK
They've won the election, now the hard yards begin, with a daunting in-tray for the new government.
With the economy struggling after COVID, public services overwhelmed and instability abroad, Labour know it's a difficult inheritance.
On day one, Sir Keir Starmer will meet the cabinet secretary; take some sobering moments to write the four "letters of last resort" every new prime minister must write to the commanders of Britain's nuclear submarines in the event of a deadly attack, and then get on with appointing his cabinet.
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"Unlike other countries it's just so quick," says Baroness Sally Morgan, who was political secretary to Tony Blair in 1997.
"It's completely weird. I don't think you can plan for it. Nobody has been to sleep. It has been a long campaign, but also 24 hours that were very full on. Then the door opens, and you walk through as the prime minister."
Will there be any honeymoon period? "I can't see a big honeymoon, frankly," Baroness Morgan said. "It's very different from '97 from that point of view. I think it was easier to paint the sunny uplands that were coming.
"The job is quite different, this time, to effectively say to the electorate 'this is really tough, but it is worth it because we will get change and make a difference'. But it's going to take a long time. So, it's about engaging people right from the start in how difficult it is.
"They'll have to find a range of things that are relatively quick wins and demonstrate that things are being done differently without necessarily costing a lot of money - part of that is tone, taking parliament seriously, a strong approach on ethics."
'Mission boards' planned
The Labour leader has set out his priorities for government - growing the economy, slashing NHS waiting lists, training more teachers, tackling anti-social behaviour and turbo-charging green energy.
But he's made clear that there are "no quick fixes" to the situation the economy and public services are in, and that he will proceed with "small steps."
His team are planning for a series of 'mission boards' to be set up, to make sure all government departments are mobilised behind these priorities.
The State Opening of Parliament on 17 July is an opportunity to set out priority legislation, but also to make clear Labour's early goals which don't need new laws.
Having promised not to raise the headline rates of income tax, VAT and national insurance; there is little money available to lavish on public services.
Prisons, public sector pay and more
Starmer's chief of staff Sue Gray has been working intensively on preparing for government, including on a "s*** list" of tricky issues they will have to tackle.
Among them is the prisons crisis, with UK jails nearly full and prison governors warning of public disorder if places are not freed up.
Public sector pay will be an early priority, with junior doctors going on strike the week before polling day and Labour promising to thrash out a resolution.
Universities say they are struggling to stay afloat and calling for an increase in fees, while Britain's biggest water company Thames Water is at risk of financial collapse.
Recommendations for new pay settlements with nurses, teachers and other public sector workers are traditionally agreed in July and will be at the top of cabinet ministers' inboxes, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimating these could cost £6-£7bn immediately.
On the global stage within days
Within days, the new prime minister heads to NATO's 75th-anniversary summit in Washington - still in the glow of victory.
Kim Darroch, former ambassador to Washington, said: "If he gets the sort of majority the opinion polls are predicting then he'll be mobbed - everyone will want to talk to him. Everyone will want to have a selfie with him, because that's the photograph that will appear on their newspapers the next day.
"And behind the scenes they'll want to ask him: how have you achieved this extraordinary majority for the centre-left, which is very much against the trend?"
And what about the Special Relationship if Donald Trump wins the US elections in November?
Lord Darroch added: "You play with the hand you're dealt. I would be surprised, given the nature of the two personalities, if you got a close personal relationship between Donald Trump and Keir Starmer. But we will have to see what the Americans are looking for. Trump is nothing if not transactional, so if there are things he wants from us, we can get stuff in return.
"He [Starmer] will need to develop a strategy on China, where there's going to be a lot of pressure, I think from across the Atlantic, for action against China's trade practices."
The NATO summit will all be about Ukraine, where Starmer will want to reassure world leaders Britain's position on funding and supporting the Ukrainians is unchanged.
Starmer will then host European leaders from over 40 countries at the European Political Community, a new grouping established in 2022 in response to the Russian threat, at Blenheim Palace on 18 July - the day after the State Opening.
This is likely to also cover the wars in Ukraine and Gaza - neither of which look to be ending anytime soon, and which could cause further regional destabilisation.
It's also his first opportunity to discuss the "closer relationship with the European Union" which Starmer has said he will seek.
Lord Darroch added: "Some of the European leaders may come up to Starmer and say 'so what are your plans? Which look to me quite modest, just bits and pieces which will bring about some improvements but nothing radical.
A deal on national security and foreign policy, Lord Darroch said, "is a given" for both sides, and the EU but any major renegotiation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, when it is reviewed in 2026, is unlikely to be on the cards.
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Tap here'No answer' to where NHS money will come from
At a time when trust in politics is low, Labour shadow ministers know that delivery of their priorities will be key.
Rachel Reeves' first budget, expected in the autumn, followed by a spending review, will give a sense of what government departments can expect.
Anita Charlesworth, of the Health Foundation charity, worked in government during the 90s and 00s and on the board of an NHS trust.
She told us: "What is so unique about where we stand at the moment is that it's almost every service within the NHS which is under challenge, and almost all parts of the country.
"The NHS is facing an absolute short-term crunch point coming out of the pandemic, with long waiting lists, and problems of access across all parts of our system, not just planned hospital care, but A&E, ambulances, GP surgeries, dentistry, and mental health."
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Delivering the 40,000 new hospital appointments promised, she said, will require much more money.
"Over the 75-year history of the NHS, health service funding has increased by more than inflation and more than growth. That's partly because we've got a growing and ageing population, more illness, but also because health care can do more.
"Health service funding will have to grow at more like the historic average, which is around 3.6% a year, over and above inflation, and at the moment, there is no answer to where that money would come from."