In the end, the big issue going into the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, turned out not to be such a big deal after all.
In the weeks and months leading up to the annual meeting of NATO leaders, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had been adamant that in addition to the tens of billions of dollars in weapons and ammunition NATO and partner nations have supplied his army since Russia invaded almost 17 months ago, he needed a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO to send a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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Ahead of the summit, President Joe Biden had given an interview in which he said flat-out NATO was not ready to extend such an invitation, a move that would require approval from all 31 member nations.
And when Zelensky got wind that the communique NATO would issue on the first day of the summit would cite “additional democratic and security sector reforms” as conditions Ukraine would have to meet, he briefly exploded on Twitter.
It’s “absurd,” Zelensky tweeted. “It seems there is no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to NATO nor to make it a member of the alliance.”
But by the time Zelensky arrived in Kyiv later that day, it was obvious that the commitments NATO was making, while short of an invitation, would send the kind of message he wanted Putin to get.
“Allies agreed on a new multiyear assistance package for Ukraine to help transition Ukraine from Soviet-era to NATO equipment and standards, and make their forces fully interoperable with NATO,” said Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in his closing press conference.
“Ukraine is now closer to NATO than ever before,” he added. “And as Ukraine continues to liberate territory, we will stand by them for as long as it takes.”
“Ukraine’s future lies with NATO,” said Biden sitting across from Zelensky just before their private one-on-one meeting. “Allies all agreed to lift the requirements for Membership Action Plan for Ukraine and to create a path to NATO membership while Ukraine continues to make progress on necessary reforms.”
It was more than enough for Zelensky to gush that the summit was a “very much-needed and meaningful success.”
“[The] Ukrainian delegation is bringing home significant security victory for the Ukraine, for our country, for our people, for our children,” Zelensky said.
The debate over when to formally invite Ukraine to join NATO has been based on a flawed premise, that the mere invitation would drag NATO into World War III.
“All 31 allies were not prepared to admit Ukraine at this summit into NATO,” explained White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan in an appearance on CNN. “If Ukraine were admitted to NATO today that would mean NATO would be at war with Russia today. It would mean that the United States would be at war with Russia today. And President Biden and the other NATO leaders were not prepared to do that.”
Except as Zelensky has argued, Ukraine is not asking to join now. Just for the invitation to join later.
“As for the invitation to NATO. … It's a signal,” he said at a press conference with Stoltenberg.
“Nobody is willing to have a world war, which is logical and understandable,” Zelensky said. “Ukraine is fighting, and it truly understands that Ukraine cannot be a member nation of NATO as long as the war continues in our territory. This is absolutely clear. But those signals are important.”
“Invitation now does not mean accession now,” tweeted retired Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army Europe. “This is an incorrect assumption by Mr. Sullivan, but it's used as the excuse for not yet inviting Ukraine into the alliance. Where is the strategic bravery and leadership that can best prevent war and ensure Europe's security?”
At a public forum, Sullivan was confronted by Daria Kaleniuk, a Ukrainian anti-corruption activist who asked why Ukraine must wait for an invitation while her young son sleeps in the corridor to avoid Russian missiles.
“Jake, please advise me, what should I tell my son?” she asked. “That President Biden and NATO didn't invite Ukraine to NATO because he's afraid of Russia? Afraid of Russia losing? Afraid of Ukraine winning?"
“Every member of NATO has to meet certain democrat reform requirements before coming into the alliance,” Sullivan said afterward on CNN. “That's true also of Ukraine. It has made substantial progress along the reform path and there are more steps to take.”
Biden’s big win came before he arrived in Vilnius, thanks largely to the shuttle diplomacy skills of Jens Stoltenberg and a change of heart by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Erdogan agreed to drop his objection to Sweden becoming the 32nd member of NATO, in return for support in reviving Turkey’s effort to join the European Union, along with clearance to buy 40 new F-16s from the U.S.
Erdogan, who just won reelection for another five-year term, seems to have made a sharp course correction away from Moscow and back toward the West, perhaps in part as a result of Putin’s weakened stature and the poor performance of Russian ground forces when confronted with NATO weapons and tactics.
“When Putin and his craven lust for land and power unleashed his brutal war on Ukraine, he was betting NATO would break apart. He was betting NATO would break. He thought our unity would shatter at the first testing. He thought democratic leaders would be weak. But he thought wrong,” Biden said in a speech.
“NATO is stronger, more energized, and yes, more united than ever in its history,” he said.
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Meanwhile, back in Washington, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) was introducing six amendments to the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act that would cut off all aid to Ukraine, including F-16s and long-range missiles, and direct President Joe Biden to withdraw from NATO, calling the trans-Atlantic alliance “not a reliable partner.”
That was happening as President Joe Biden was tweeting he was in Lithuania “to reaffirm our ironclad commitment to NATO.”