Thursday Tidbits: July Wrap Up

On June 30th of this year, the D-Backs handily beat the hapless Athletics to take the series and end a middling home stand when they went 3-3 against the Twins and Athletics. They ended the month with a 41-43 record, 10.5 games back in the division, a negative run differential (-13), and 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot looking up at the Padres, Cardinals, Mets, and Braves. Fast forward a month and the picture has flipped significantly: after sweeping another hapless club in the Nationals, the team is now 58-51, just five games back of the division-leading Dodgers, a much healthier run differential (+45), and owners of the third and final Wild Card spot. Undoubtedly, June was the month that saved their season as another middling performance like April or May would have put the club into serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs altogether. However, July was the month that catapulted them from fringe playoff contender to driver’s seat. Strikingly, their improved quality in play captured the attention of the simulations too as Baseball Reference’s playoff odds for the Snakes improved from just 12% to 51% and FanGraph’s odds jumped from 26% to 58%. So how did they manage to make such an impression? And how does this month’s performance stack up against franchise history?

The Offense

Let’s start with the lumber where the team has been slinging a heavy stick. After bottoming out in May with a .231/.292/.364 slash line that resulted in a dismal 3.7 runs per game and an ugly 11-15 record, the offense took an encouraging step forward in June. They posted a .269/.341/.433 slash line which resulted in a much-improved five runs per game and unsurprisingly improved their record to 16-11 for the month. But in July, the offense absolutely exploded as they managed an absurd .283/.353/.499 slash line that resulted in another jump of runs per game up to 6.6 for the month. Most tellingly, after struggling to find a balance between the slug-heavy style that Hazen was targeting with his offseason acquisitions and the “Chaos Baseball” that characterized last year’s roster, they finally found an excellent balance in July. They had their highest home run total of the year with 41 while also managing their season-best stolen base total with 24. If they can continue that kind of balanced offensive attack for the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs if they reach them, they could be extremely dangerous.

But numbers only matter in context so how do all these stats stack up to the rest of the league and the franchise itself? Well, for 2024, the July offensive output from the D-Backs ranks second for Team-Month combinations by OPS and runs scored and third for SLG, trailing the Mets’ and Orioles’ June performances. They also comfortably paced the league in July in almost every category including OPS, runs scored, slugging, and RBIs. As a franchise, this July offensive onslaught ranks third by OPS, fifth for runs scored, and first for slugging. The only months that rank ahead: June 2001 and September/October 1999 which includes a World Series-winning roster and a 100-win season in the sophomore campaign for the franchise. Individually, the offense was paced by two of their mainstays in Ketel Marte and Joc Pederson and one of the hottest hitters in the league right now in Eugenio Suarez (.333/.398/.733 slash line) - all of whom posted an OPS north of 1.000 for the month. Even better, they got encouraging contributions from Jake McCarthy and Gabriel Moreno (.904 and .864 OPS respectively) and had plenty of high leverage moments throughout.

The Pitching

But scoring runs and smacking homers only goes so far - just ask the 2023 Dodgers - so how were the hurlers this month? Put simply: they weren’t as good as their offensive counterparts. That’s not to imply that they were necessarily bad so much as they couldn’t quite keep up with an historic monthly performance. Even as the offense was picking itself up in June, the pitching staff was having its worst monthly performance so far this season with a combined 5.26 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and a .272 BAA. Conversely, July was another story as the pitchers lowered those numbers to 3.93, 1.28, and .251 respectively which certainly contributed to the team’s overall success. Unfortunately, even with that month-to-month improvement, the pitchers put themselves in the middle of the league for WHIP (17th), BAA (11th highest), and OPS against (20th). And before you reach for the comment section, it was not just a certain reliever/former closer that tanked the numbers. The rotation and bullpen took collective steps forward despite that elephant in the room as the starters posted a respectable 4.32 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, and .252 BAA. Meanwhile, the bullpen had a 3.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .249 BAA. Ironically, the starters pitched the exact same number of innings in each month (127), but with two additional games, which certainly lessened the burden on the relief staff.

Fazit

In essentially every possible way, this July was an historically impressive performance for the Arizona batters. While the pitchers weren’t quite able to keep up to the same high standard, they had plenty of important moments that contributed to such an important month. Even though it’s easy to get caught up in the day-to-day performances, I think it’s worthwhile to zoom out and look at how such an awe-inspiring month can really launch a team into a different stratosphere. It’s also worth pointing out that this month included a set of disastrous performances from the erstwhile closer Paul Sewald and the team still managed to have as much success as they did.