Hurricane Beryl's explosive intensification is a grim warning for future storms

Hurricane Beryl rapidly strengthened into a category four storm this weekend with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. The storm became the earliest category four hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic Ocean, beating the previous record by a full week.

This was far from the first record this relatively young storm broke early in its life.

Beryl was the earliest hurricane we've ever seen so far east in the tropical Atlantic. It was the first major hurricane in this part of the world during the months of June or July. It's going to be the strongest hurricane to hit the Windward Islands this early in the season.

Hurricane #Beryl intensified from a tropical depression to a 105kt (120mph) category-3 in 42 hours, and 115kt (130mph) category-4 in 48 hours.

Here's how that intensification compares to all tropical depressions on record in the Atlantic.

Unprecedented barely covers it. pic.twitter.com/YFLW3DmDdO

— Sam Lillo (@splillo) July 1, 2024

The storm's rate of intensification places it among a very small group of any Atlantic hurricane observed since modern records began in 1851. Meteorologist Sam Lillo crunched the numbers and posted Sunday that the storm's rapid intensification is unheard of this early in the season, matched only by a handful of historical storms that formed at the peak of the season in August and September.

What gives?

Experts have been worried that we're in for a very active hurricane season this year. Seasonal outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University both called for a tremendous number of storms—so many, in fact, that we may exhaust the list of names for only the third time since the 1950s.

The ingredients behind an active season aren't just about the raw number of storms that form. After all, we had Tropical Storm Chris in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The storm lasted for less than a day as it formed while making landfall on Mexico's east coast.

SOURCE: Tropical Tidbits

While we'll probably have plenty of short-lived and forgettable storms, the ingredients present across the Atlantic are favorable for creating storms like Beryl.

Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are running as hot now as they should at the peak of the season. Combine that with favorable atmospheric conditions expected as La Niña develops and the ingredients are there for explosive development of any healthy tropical disturbance that can take root and take advantage of its environment.

We (hopefully) won't see more record-breaking storms this year. But Beryl makes it clear that the environment is more than capable of supporting very intense storms this hurricane season. This early-season storm is a warning shot to prepare emergency kits and emergency plans now rather than waiting until the peak of the season. It could be a long summer.

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New Tropical Depression Forms Off East Coast as Tiny Hurricane Beryl Collapses

The circle of life in the Atlantic Ocean is whirring once again as Beryl winds down and Chris winds up. Beryl weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm on Saturday morning after its surprise performance on Friday. A disturbance between Bermuda and the North Carolina coast finally developed into a tropical depression and it looks like it could make it to hurricane strength as it parallels the coast through next week.

Hurricane Chris?

An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Tropical Depression Three this afternoon and found it a bit disorganized as it sits a few hundred miles southeast of North Carolina's Outer Banks. The fledgling tropical depression is bigger now than Hurricane Beryl was at its strongest, truly a sad statement about the latter.

While it's unsettling to watch a storm sit and grow this close to land, the National Hurricane Center expects the cyclone to stay far enough away from the East Coast that the only problems we'll face are rip currents and rough surf. Close is close, though, and it's worth keeping an eye on it just in case things change. It's always a good idea to make sure you have emergency supplies.

Tropical Depression Three is pretty much stuck in place right now, pinned between a stalled cold front to its west and a ridge of high pressure to its east. This will allow the storm to meander for the next couple of days as it gathers strength before a trough picks the storm up and lifts it out to sea early next week.

The depression, which will gain the name Chris when it reaches tropical storm strength, will slowly gather strength thanks to the fact that it's moseying directly over the Gulf Stream. The storm should track directly over or very close to this current of warm water as it lifts off toward Newfoundland next week. Future-Chris could briefly reach hurricane strength before moving over cooler water and into a less favorable environment.

The latest forecast from the NHC shows that Chris will lose its tropical characteristics by the time it reaches Newfoundland, but it will still be a strong cyclone with gusty winds, heavy rain, and rough surf.

Beryl Collapses

Alas, poor Beryl. The loosely amalgamated clump of water vapor now known as Tropical Storm Beryl is clinging to life by a wisp of an updraft. Its low-level circulation is swirling bare, broken free of the convection that once gave it improbable life.

Beryl's triumph was its downfall. The small storm collapsed this morning just as spectacularly as it developed 36 hours ago. Beryl, much like me, fell to pieces after a minor inconvenience, in this case an intrusion of dry air and some moderate wind shear.

Nobody initially expected the itty bitty depression to strengthen into a hurricane based on its size and the hostile environment around it. Tiny hurricanes are fragile and extremely susceptible to adverse conditions. They can strengthen and weaken without much forewarning.

The 5:00 PM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center shows Beryl with maximum winds of 50 MPH in a wind field that only stretches a few dozen miles wide. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the island of Dominica as the system—or at least what's left of it—is forecast to track over the island on Sunday night. Regardless of its organization or official title, the storm or its remnants could bring heavy rain to islands susceptible to flooding and mudslides.

(I updated this post at 7:00 PM EDT with the latest information about each storm.)

[Satellite Images: NOAA | Maps: me]

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Itty Bitty Hurricane Beryl Defies the Odds, Makes Fools of Us All

Looks sometimes aren't deceiving at all. A tiny, good lookin' tropical depression far out in the Atlantic Ocean suddenly and surprisingly developed into a full-fledged hurricane that's so small you could miss it from space without knowing where to look. Hurricane Beryl unexpectedly strengthened into a category one hurricane in less than 24 hours, packing 80 MPH winds around a pinhole eye. The hurricane is about as small as one can get, barely registering larger than your average squall line.

Yesterday I wrote that this storm is "the kind of cyclone that tries to defy the odds" due to its appearance and location, but ultimately couldn't due to its weakness and the hostile environment it's approaching:

The system initially wasn't expected to develop into much of anything, but it started to look more impressive on satellite imagery during the day on Wednesday. This is the kind of cyclone that tries to defy the odds, but fortunately for storm-weary folks near the coasts, the environment is too hostile to allow this storm to buff itself up beyond what we think should be possible. Even a stronger, more solid storm would struggle against the obstacles ahead of T.D. Two.

Oops. Talk about defying the odds.

Hurricane Beryl has maximum winds of 80 MPH this morning as it scoots west toward the Lesser Antilles. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm possibly reaching the islands as a hurricane before slowly weakening once it enters the Caribbean. Beryl's diminutive size will be its saving grace—even if the worst conditions affect land, it wouldn't be for more than a few hours. The greatest threat with this storm would be flooding and mudslides from heavy rain.

Hurricane Beryl's hurricane-force winds only extend 10 miles away from the center of the eye, and winds greater than 39 MPH only extend out 35 miles. My favorite size comparison for tropical cyclones (and one that always draws ire from some weather folks for its ridiculousness) is to overlay a storm's wind field over the Washington D.C. metro area to show how relatively small it is:

Beryl's hurricane-force wind field is so small that it just barely covers Washington D.C. with just enough room to fit in most of Arlington County, Virginia. The storm's field of 39+ MPH winds would be big enough to stretch from Howard County to Charles County in Maryland.

Meteorologists and weather models have a hard time forecasting the intensity of exceptionally small tropical cyclones; this storm's core isn't much bigger than a healthy supercell. Beryl is tiny, and tiny storms have a history of wildly fluctuating in intensity. On paper, at least, it seems like the storm shouldn't have achieved its current strength. But Beryl is small enough that it found itself a pocket of favorable-enough conditions and took full advantage of what it found.

The storm's structure should insulate it just enough from wind shear and dry air that it could survive into the Caribbean before starting to weaken and fall apart. However, the NHC notes in its latest forecast that predictions are more uncertain than usual because of the hurricane's tiny size. Tiny storms are fragile. Beryl brings to mind Hurricane Danny from 2015, a similarly tiny storm in roughly the same spot that reached major hurricane strength before collapsing as it approached the Lesser Antilles.

Storms like this are humbling for meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike. I was wrong. They were wrong. We were all wrong. (Crow all around!) Nobody initially expected this storm to strengthen the way it did and they're probably lying to make themselves look good if they tell you otherwise. Predicting the weather is still an inexact science and there's a lot for even the experts to learn about how and why tropical cyclones suddenly intensify, especially itty bitty ones like Beryl.

[Satellite: NOAA | Maps: me]

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Hostile Atlantic Ocean Eagerly Waiting to Tear New Tropical Depression to Shreds

Newly-minted Tropical Depression Two is a visually impressive but ultimately doomed cyclone that's far out in the Atlantic Ocean between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. The system in any other year would become a serious concern for interests near the coast, but in this year, this hostile year for the Atlantic Ocean and us all, the storm will last about one-third of a Scaramucci, meeting its untimely fate this Sunday in a swift and meteorologically gruesome fashion.

The National Hurricane Center's first forecast discussion for T.D. Two reads more like the eulogy at a living funeral rather than a dire prediction of tropical woes. The environment is not suitable for significant development. The cyclone may grow strong enough to achieve the name Tropical Storm Beryl before dissipating this weekend at the hands of cooler-than-normal waters, dry air, and strong winds.

The system initially wasn't expected to develop into much of anything, but it started to look more impressive on satellite imagery during the day on Wednesday. This is the kind of cyclone that tries to defy the odds, but fortunately for storm-weary folks near the coasts, the environment is too hostile to allow this storm to buff itself up beyond what we think should be possible. Even a stronger, more solid storm would struggle against the obstacles ahead of T.D. Two.

A quick look at this morning's visible satellite image across the Atlantic shows a small, classic-looking storm that looks like it could have been the nucleus to something more ominous had it formed in a better environment. All that beige fuzz ahead of the storm over the Caribbean is Saharan dust that blew off of Africa ahead of the tropical wave that would become T.D. Two. Dusty desert air is not conducive to a juicy tropical cyclone.

Adding insult to injury is strong wind shear over the eastern Caribbean that will shred the storm to pieces in a hurry. Strong upper-level winds disrupt the updrafts in thunderstorms that try to form and displaces existing thunderstorm activity far away from the center of the cyclone. Both of these work together to kill storms fast. It's something special to watch the thunderstorms in a tropical cyclone floof away (technical term) so fast in dry air and strong wind shear that all that's left is a naked low-level swirl confusedly spinning itself to oblivion.

The remnants of T.D. Two/Beryl will continue into the Antilles through early next week and bring some heavy rain to the area. Aside from a slight chance that a disturbance near Bermuda could briefly develop over the next day or so before also meeting a swift end, the Atlantic will return to its quiet state soon enough.

Related: Here's a Hype-Free Rundown to Help You Keep Track of Storms This Hurricane Season

[Map: Dennis Mersereau | Satellite: NOAA | Model: Tropical Tidbits]

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