Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Royal Treatment
It wasn't long ago that the Kansas City Royals were battling the Cleveland Guardians for supremacy of the AL Central. On May 25, the Royals won their eighth straight game to sit at 34-19, pulling within 1.5 games of first place while being the leader for the top wild card spot.
However, the Royals went into a 14-22 tailspin, and heading into Friday's action, they were fourth in AL wild card chase. Their 48-41 record was third in the AL Central, but just 1.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox for the final AL wild card spot.
To be fair, the fact the Royals are in the playoff conversation at this point of the season is an accomplishment. Last season, they were 56-106, finishing last in the AL Central, ahead of just the Oakland Athletics in terms of record. Even if the Royals continue to slide and finish at .500, the season must be considered a success.
That said, the organization set the team up perfectly by fortifying their rotation with veterans Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo. Through Thursday, Lugo checks in as the No. 3 fantasy pitcher on the ESPN Player Rater, behind only Cleveland RP Emmanuel Clase and Atlanta Braves SP Chris Sale.
Even so, Lugo (93.8% rostered in ESPN leagues) is the second lowest ranked pitcher on Saturday's docket, ahead of only Colorado Rockies SP Austin Gomber, his mound foe. Normally, it would be no-brainer to bench Lugo for this start, but the Rockies lineup isn't nearly as potent this season, though they still boast the eighth highest home wOBA and are ninth overall in runs per game at home.
Lugo's 22.7% strikeout rate is only 37th among qualified starts, though a low walk rate jumps him to 33rd in K-BB%. Driving Lugo's success is a high fly ball rate in tandem with an extremely low .080 BABIP on fly balls. Buoyed by cavernous Kauffmann Stadium, Lugo is one of the league's chief beneficiaries from the dead baseball.
Given that team context drives weekend decisions in head-to-head leagues, the safe play is having Lugo sit this one out. Dead ball or not, a fly ball pitcher in Coors Field in the heat of the summer is a risky proposition.
On the other hand, Kansas City bats are in a great spot this weekend, and there is a lot from which to choose. Only Bobby Witt Jr. (99.9% rostered) and Salvador Perez (96.8% rostered) are universally unavailable. On Saturday, the righty-swingers are in the spotlight, with 2B Maikel Garcia (58.2% rostered), OF Hunter Renfroe (2.7% rostered) and C Freddy Fermin (.6% rostered) the prime targets.
Betting Tip of the Day: The forecast for Coors Field Saturday night calls for mid-80s temperatures with the wind blowing slightly in when Kansas City Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr. squares off with Colorado Rockies SP Austin Gomber. Witt enjoys the platoon edge and should have a productive evening. I'll take the over on 3.5 total bases (+130).
What you missed on Friday
New York Yankees 2B Gleyber Torres isn't in Saturday's starting lineup for Game 2 of a weekend series in the Bronx against the Boston Red Sox. Torres injured his groin beating out an infield grounder in the fourth inning last night. He was replaced by pinch-runner Oswaldo Cabrera, who will fill in for Torres today.
Houston Astros 2B Jose Altuve left Friday night's affair in the eighth inning after being hit on his left hand by a pitch. X-rays came back negative. Altuve's availability for Saturday's road matinee with the Minnesota Twins is unclear.
Arizona Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte was forced from Friday night's game due to lingering back soreness. The Diamondbacks were down 7-2 to the San Diego Padres to open the ninth inning. Arizona rallied to narrow the lead to 7-6 and had a man on second base. Manager Torey Lovullo sent up OF Randall Grichuk to pinch hit for Marte, and Grichuk delivered a go-ahead homer. However, closer Paul Sewald couldn't seal the deal with Padres OF Jurickson Profar tying the game with a long ball and 3B Manny Machado walking it off with a two-run dinger. Marte is considered day-to-day.
The Los Angeles Dodgers recalled OF James Outman on Friday. Outman takes OF Jason Heyward's roster spot, who was placed on the 10-day IL with a left knee contusion. Outman was demoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City after posting a .516 OPS in 36 games. He has been playing well, recording a .930 OPS in 38 games on the farm. Even so, it's unclear how much Outman will play with Heyward sidelined as Miguel Vargas filled in last night.
Everything else you need to know for Saturday
Saturday's slate kicks with one of 11 matinees commencing at 1:05 PM ET in the Bronx with SP Gerritt Cole and the New York Yankees hosting SP Josh Winckowski and the Boston Red Sox. Cole was solid in his last outing, limiting the Toronto Blue Jays to one run in five frames, punching out six with one free pass. For the season, the Red Sox have struck out a high 24.7% of the time, though they've been fanning at a more palatable 22.9% clip over the past month. Still, Cole is an automatic start. Winckowski (1.5% rostered) is a conundrum. He has allowed just two earned runs over 11 innings since joining the Red Sox rotation. In his first effort, Winckowski fanned eight in six frames, but he only rung up one batter in five stanzas in his most recent effort. Winckowski is too risky to be used in traditional fantasy, but he works as a cheap play for DFS purposes.
The top streamer is Baltimore Orioles SP Cade Povich (3.3% rostered) for his road date with the Oakland Athletics. After struggling in his MLB debut, Povich has recorded a 2.53 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his next four starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings. Povich only fanned 15 in this span, but he'll face a lineup averaging the second fewest runs per game in the league over the last month, in large part due to the second highest strikeout rate in that span.
Saturday will be an interesting outing for San Diego SP Matt Waldron (36.2% rostered) since he'll be facing the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third time this season. As opposed to most knuckleballers, Waldron uses his along with a few other offerings, so seeing him multiple times may not offer the same edge as repetitions against a pure knuckleballer. That said, the Diamondbacks are one of the few teams to solve Waldron, scoring seven runs over three innings in early May. Waldron limited the Diamondbacks to just one run in six frames a couple of months later. Pitching at home in Petco Park gives Waldron enough of an edge to trust him the third time around.
Tampa Rays SP Taj Bradley (31.9% rostered) has a favorable road matchup in Arlington against a struggling Teas rangers offense averaging the eighth least runs per game over the last month. That said, the lineup doesn't fan much, but they'll be challenged by Bradley who has rung up 72 hitters in 55 1/3 innings.
New York Mets SP David Peterson (5.5%) draws a middling Pittsburgh Pirates in the Steel City. The Pirates are averaging the 10th fewest runs per game over the last month while fanning a hefty 24.9% of the time.
It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 8%) vs. Seth Lugo
Hunter Renfroe (KC, RF -- 3%) at Austin Gomber
Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 30%) vs. Lugo
Rhys Hoskins (MIL, 1B -- 29%) at James Paxton
Freddy Fermin (KC, C -- 1%) at Gomber
Jesse Winker (WSH, DH -- 16%) vs. Lance Lynn
J.D. Martinez (NYM, DH -- 20%) at Bailey Falter
Jonathan India (CIN, 2B -- 34%) vs. Alex Faedo
Alec Burleson (STL, LF -- 34%) at MacKenzie Gore
Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF -- 10%) at Yonny Chirinos
Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 51%) at Joe Ryan
Ryan Jeffers (MIN, C -- 51%) vs. Hunter Brown
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, CF -- 74%) vs. Garrett Crochet
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, 2B -- 94%) vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 50%) at Matt Waldron
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B -- 69%) vs. Kyle Harrison
Yainer Diaz (HOU, C -- 88%) at Joe Ryan
Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 72%) vs. Yariel Rodriguez
Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 56%) vs. Tyler Anderson
David Fry (CLE, C -- 60%) vs. Harrison