Reform vote almost doubles since Nigel Farage's shock return

Thank you for reading the Express's live blog on day 15 of the general election campaign.

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The BBC’s Question Time audience groaned when a Labour frontbencher said Wales’ record is a “blueprint” for a Sir Keir Starmer-led Government.

Shabana Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary, refused to say four times if Welsh Labour was a “blueprint” before saying it was.

She said: “We’re very proud of our record in Wales,” she said. “It is a blueprint for us.”

As the audience groaned, Mark Harper, the transport secretary, interjected: “Why? Why are you? It’s terrible.”

In 2022, Labour leader Sir Keir said the Welsh Labour government was the "blueprint for what Labour could do in government across the UK".

The Transport secretary told BBC Two’s Question Time: “It’s the reason why we’ve got the third largest technology sector after only the US and China.

“It’s the reason why we’ve got the largest amount of new investment into Britain on greenfield sites where people are building new factories, [the] third largest after the US and China because this is a destination for investment if you’re going to be where the jobs grow.

“In the new economies of the future, things like artificial intelligence, automated vehicles, we are able to regulate to suit ourselves and put ourselves at the front of that.”

Johnny Mercer has said that “of course” the Tories’ national service plan is not “perfect” but “at least it’s a bold promise”.

The veterans’ minister told Sky News: “I go visiting my cadets down here and things like that, and I would love them to have more resources and more opportunity, and things like that, and this is backed by new money, so in that respect I was pleased to see it. I think it should be given a fair wind.

“You know, is it perfect? Of course it’s not. But it’s an election, right?

“At least it’s a bold promise that defines between two parties that are often accused of basically being the same thing.”

Keir Starmer is planning to use the Labour manifesto to make his strongest commitment yet on Palestinian statehood in a move to shore up the party’s core support on the left, sources have told the Guardian.

People with knowledge of the document say the Labour leader is expected to include a pledge to recognise Palestine before the end of any peace process, and to make sure such a move does not get vetoed by a neighbouring country.

The final version of the manifesto will be agreed in a meeting with unions on Friday and launched officially next Thursday.

Former Cabinet Minister Nadine Dorries has warned the Conservative Party will “probably disappear” at the general election.

The former culture secretary under Boris Johnson said the country is potentially witnessing the “annihilation” of the Tories.

She said: “What we’re seeing right now is possibly the annihilation of the Conservative Party.

“It’s probably going to disappear and, you know, certainly if Reform take over, given tactical voting which is taking place already in many constituencies and given the uprising in Reform’s votes and support since Nigel Farage decided he would stand as leader, I think you could see the disappearance of the Conservative Party.”

Reform has pledged to abolish inheritance tax for estates worth less than £2 million

This will heap pressure on the Tories to announce their own cut to the levy ahead of the general election on July 4.

Reform’s inheritance tax policy was proposed in a draft manifesto published in February.

There has been uncertainty about which policies will be kept under Nigel Farage’s leadership, which was announced on Monday.

Richard Tice, Reform’s chairman, said today that the original inheritance tax proposal – which Reform says would take 98%t of estates out of the tax – would be kept.

Nigel Farage's Reform UK has lept in the polls following the announcement he would lead the party.

Reform jumped seven point to 15 in Survation's latest survey.

The Conservatives are down one point to 23 and Labour has plunged four points to 43.

Nadine Dorries has called Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden “disgusting” for standing in a safe seat in Essex at the general election.

Mr Holden has denied a “stitch up” selection after he was the only name shortlisted for the Basildon and Billericay constituency, where the Tories won a majority of more than 20,000 votes in 2019.

Speaking to the News Agents podcast, Ms Dorries said: “I think it’s disgusting, actually, what he’s done.

“I still, myself and others are still kind of, like, reeling from the shock of it, the audacity, just the sheer audaciousness of what’s taken place.”

More men will vote for Reform UK at the general election than for the Conservatives, a poll of 2,000 people has suggested.

Redfield & Wilton survey found that 19% of the male respondents said they would vote Reform, compared to 18% for the Tories.

A second poll within the space of 24 hours has put Reform UK just 2% behind the Conservatives, suggesting yesterday's shock YouGov poll was far from a blip.

Refield Wilton has found the exact same numbers as YouGov did yesterday, with the Conservatives on 19% to Reform's 17%.

Meanwhile Labour is down 4% to 40%, and the LibDems are up 2% to 12%.

They note that the Tory's poll rating of 19% is their joint lowest ever.

Nigel Farage has adopted a song by Eminem as his campaign anthem.

The Reform UK leader is using the chorus of the rapper’s 2002 hit Without Me in a series of social media videos to promote his comeback.

A source close to Mr Farage said: “Whilst I would not go as far as saying it’s been adopted as the campaign anthem, Nigel and team thought the metaphors in the chorus were spot on.”

An old clip showing a senior shadow cabinet minister calling for a debate about the UK's nuclear weapons has been unearthed, calling into question Labour's commitment to the vital deterrent.

Last week Keir Starmer insisted Labour's commitment to Trident was total, and his entire shadow cabinet agrees with him.

He was shortly undermined by his deputy Angela Rayner, who insisted she has not changed her mind about her opposition to nuclear weapons.

Now shadow transport secretary Louise Haigh can be seen saying the weapons should also be up for debate.

Remoaner-in-chief Anna Soubry was ridiculed today as she desperately attempted to use the day’s D-Day events to attack Brexit.

The retired politician shared a video of British paratroopers getting their passports checked after landing in France.

She added: “Ah those #Brexit benefits.”

Plenty of social media users pointed out the one major error with her latest anti-Brexit attack.

More than 7,000 new members have signed up to Reform UK since Nigel Farage's bombshell comeback, according to the party.

The Brexit architect on Monday revealed he was returning as leader and that he would stand in Clacton-on-Sea in the general election.

A Reform UK spokesman said 7,500 people have paid the £25 fee to sign up as a member for a year since Mr Farage's announcement.

The spokesman added: "This is only the start. As people realise that the Tories have lost this election and that voting for them and their desperately cobbled together policies are irrelevant we expect that number to significantly increase in coming weeks and months."

Lee Anderson, Reform's candidate for Ashfield, added: "Nigel Farage's announcement to stand is best the best ever recruiting technique to boost the ranks of the People's Army.

"Reform UK are now firmly on the march to help take back our country."

Voters are caring less about the cost of living, and more about the NHS and immigration according to a new poll.

Tracked over a number of weeks, More In Common finds that concern about the cost of living is now at its lowest level in two years.

However concern about the NHS is at its highest, while immigration is also rapidly ticking up, possibly as a result of last week's news about Nigel Farage entering the race.

Alex Chalk clearly thinks the Tory brand is toxic to voters and he stands a better chance of being re-elected as the MP for Cheltenham if he distances himself from the party.

Not a single mention of the Conservatives in this campaign leaflet being posted through letterboxes in the pretty Cotswold spa town.

The Justice Secretary needs all the help he can get as he tries to cling on to a wafer-thin majority with the Lib Dems breathing down his neck.

Nigel Farage is 1/5 from 3/10 yesterday to win Clacton at the General Election, according to bookmaker William Hill.

Spokesman Lee Phelps said: “The money just keeps coming for Nigel Farage and, in the last 24 hours, he’s shortened further into 1/5 from 3/10 to win Clacton for Reform UK when the public go to the polls on July 4th.

“Reform were a much bigger price at 13/2 to win Clacton before Farage announced his intention to stand, and it now looks like all the momentum is behind the former UKIP leader as he seeks to be elected to Westminster on his eighth attempt.”

A Tory candidate has quit after the Daily Mirror exposed inappropriate comments from him about women.

Sam Trask, standing in Bridgend, boasted that his favoured bra size measuring technique was "hand sizing them by feel".

He added: "Maybe have to make a more detailed inspection with my lips and tongue... for accuracy, of course".

Mr Trask has apologised for the "wholly inappropriate" comments and said he has "decided to withdraw as a candidate" .

Sir Ed Davey evaded questions about the Liberal Democrats' potential role as "kingmakers" if there is a hung parliament after the General Election.

Speaking in Wiltshire, the Lib Dem leader said: "I'm just not thinking about after the election.

"When I became leader of the Liberal Democrats, I made it very clear that my top priority was to defeat Conservative MPs. This Government is out of touch, out of ideas and out of excuses."

Tory chairman Richard Holden has denied a "stitch-up" amid a row over him being parachuted into a safe seat in Essex.

The ex-MP for North West Durham insisted that he had received “unanimous support” from the Basildon and Billericay Conservative Association executive last night.

Asked by Channel 4 News whether he had been involved in a “stitch-up”, Mr Holden said: “No, my seat had been abolished, right? I came down, the guys here tonight could have said no. They backed me unanimously.”

Two Liberal Democrats have been arrested in one of the party’s top target seats just weeks from the election date.

The party’s Harrogate offices were reportedly raided yesterday by North Yorkshire Police.

Their new party headquarters were only opened two days ago in a grand ribbon-cutting ceremony.

It come after a row with the Green Party in March during the local elections, when the Lib Dems claimed in one leaflet that the Green candidate had stood down.

Laura Trott, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said: “The Prime Minister warned this week that Labour would put up taxes by £2,094 on working families. The interview today given by the shadow defence secretary shows once again that Labour won’t rule out a swathe of taxes on families.

“Labour plans to pay for their £38.5 billion blackhole by raising taxes on working people. Labour will tax the family home, drag pensioners into Labour’s retirement tax, taxing your work, taxing your car. You name it. Labour will tax it.

“This matters because at this election Keir Starmer is asking for a blank cheque and it’s becoming clear what he wants to do with it - put up your taxes.

“Only Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives have a clear plan to cut taxes, backed by bold action, to chart a course to a more secure future for Britain.”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage posted on X: "Honoured to be in Normandy for the 80th anniversary of D-Day."

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has confirmed his intention to stand at the General Election despite initially planning to step down.

Mr Ross enters the fray with just 24 hours left for nominations to be confirmed for seats ahead of the July 4 poll.

The announcement, at a hastily-arranged press conference in Edinburgh, comes after the party barred David Duguid - MP for Banff and Buchan in the last Parliament - from contesting the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat.

Addressing journalists on Thursday, Mr Ross said: "Over the last 12 hours, I have thought long and hard about this and considered the options. I've spoken with my wife, my family, colleagues and local members.

"I've decided I need to lead from the front, so this evening I will put myself forward for nomination as Scottish Conservative candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East."

Rishi Sunak told D-Day veterans "we owe you everything" as he addressed the audience at the UK's national commemoration event in Normandy to mark the 80th anniversary of D-Day.

The Prime Minister said: "Each of you who contributed that day - sailor, soldier, aviator, civilian - whether you fought on the beaches, or parachuted from the skies, or flew fighters or gliders, whether you were an engineer or a radio operator or an intelligence officer, your actions freed a continent and built a better world.

"You risked everything and we owe you everything. We cannot possibly hope to repay that debt but we can and we must pledge never to forget."

He said veterans had "taught generations of young people about the horrors of war", adding: "Yet with each passing year, it falls now to those of us who listened in awe to your stories to pass them on to our own children and grandchildren.

"Because only by remembering can we make certain that the cause you fought for, that so many of your friends and colleagues died for, that great cause of freedom, peace and democracy, will never be taken for granted."

Rishi Sunak made a "mistake" by calling an early general election, according to leading polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice.

Asked on ITV's Peston whether Mr Sunak made an “irrational” decision to call an early election, Sir John said: “Yes."

He added: “From his personal point of view, we’ve already seen the mistake writ large.

“He’s decided to go early and he’s lost his legislation on trying to ban tobacco smoking.

"I assume Labour will try to bring it back and Sir Keir Starmer will take the credit in the history books, rather than Rishi Sunak. That doesn’t strike me as a wise choice from a politician.”

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross plans to stand at the General Election, it is understood.

Mr Ross will seek the nomination for the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat despite announcing he would not run again for Westminster to focus on his duties at the Scottish Parliament.

It comes as David Duguid, the former MP for Banff and Buchan, said on Wednesday he had been barred from standing by the party due to ill health.

Mr Ross has called a snap press conference in Edinburgh this morning, where he is expected to announce his intentions.

Rishi Sunak will miss the major international ceremony to mark the 80th anniversary of D-Day but Sir Keir Starmer will mingle with world leaders at the Omaha Beach event.

The Prime Minister is attending events in Normandy including speaking at the major British ceremony, but will not be present alongside leaders including France's Emmanuel Macron and US President Joe Biden at the international gathering.

With the General Election campaign in full swing, the Tory leader will head back to the UK - but his rival Sir Keir will be at the high-profile international event in Normandy.

A Tory source played down the diplomatic impact of the PM's absence, pointing out he will see Mr Macron, Mr Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other key leaders at the G7 summit in Italy next week.

Labour leads the Tories by 43% to 23% in a new poll by Ipsos, with Reform and the Greens on 9% and the Lib Dems on 8%.

Gideon Skinner, senior director of UK politics at Ipsos, said: "The fundamentals in public opinion are still shoring up Labour’s strong lead as the 2024 election campaign starts in earnest.

"Concern about health care, the economy, cost of living, and immigration are voters’ top issues, in head-to-heads Keir Starmer has a clear lead over Rishi Sunak on key leader attributes, and no Prime Minister or government has started an election campaign with worse satisfaction ratings since Ipsos started measuring public opinion just before Margaret Thatcher’s first election victory.

"This means the public are increasingly open to the prospect of a Labour government.

"However the public’s choice this time seems to be less driven by the leaders themselves than in previous elections, with neither seen as having a strong personal brand, and Keir Starmer still needing to tell a more convincing story to voters over what he would stand for in government."

The poll of 1,014 British adults was conducted by telephone between May 31 and June 4.

Shadow defence secretary John Healey refused to rule out Labour hiking property taxes.

Sky News presenter Kay Burley grilled John Healey on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's challenge for Labour to match a new Tory pledge not to increase capital gains tax, stamp duty or the number of council tax bands.

But Mr Healey would only say: “We will not raise taxes on working people. We will not raise income tax, we will not raise VAT, we will not raise National Insurance.

“Our plans, beyond the specific tax rises and changes that we set out to pay for our first steps, our plans do not require us to start looking at raising taxes across the board.”

Reform's Lee Anderson said he is not expecting more Conservative defections ahead of the General Election.

He told GB News: “I’m not, if I’m honest. There have been conversations this week. I'm going to be honest my phone has been on fire since Monday, lots of calls and text messages from colleagues who are very concerned about losing their seats.

“But I think it's I think it's a case of they're going to go down with the ship and that's what they're going to do. They see the writing on the wall they're not prepared to make the punt. It’s a shame really because there's a lot of good Conservative MPs still in the party that deserve to be in Parliament after the next election but the way things are going they won't be there, sadly.

“They’ve been calling me and saying things like, ‘please don't stand in my area, please don't stand in my constituency, we are good people, we're on the same page, we need to be sat on the green benches in opposition come July.’

“But I'm sorry, it is what it is. The Conservative Party have let the country down, I think Number 10 has let the country down and there’s going to be a bit of a bloodbath come July - a political bloodbath - and some of my colleagues are going to be looking for work."

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The Conservative Party has accepted another £5 million donation from Frank Hester, who allegedly said Labour's Diane Abbott "should be shot", new figures show.

Electoral Commission data released today showed the payments from Mr Hester's software firm, the Phoenix Partnership, in January.

He also handed the Tories £10 million last year, bringing the total from the party's biggest donor to £15 million.

It was reported in March that Mr Hester said Ms Abbott - who in 1987 became the first black woman elected to Parliament - made him want to "hate all black women" and "should be shot".

The Chancellor has called on Sir Keir Starmer to pledge not to increase property tax if Labour wins the General Election.

Jeremy Hunt, writing for The Telegraph, challenged the Labour leader to match a new Tory pledge not to increase capital gains tax, stamp duty or the number of council tax bands.

"I am throwing down the gauntlet to (shadow chancellor) Rachel Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer to join us in this pledge," Mr Hunt said.

"This isn't party political point scoring. I actually want to see the Labour Party say they will put families first and higher taxes second."

Mel Stride claimed Reform UK will not win any seats at the General Election.

The Work and Pensions Secretary told Sky News: “A vote for Reform is a vote for the Labour Party.

"Any viewer listening needs to know that Reform are not going to be winning seats under the first-past-the-post electoral system. It simply won’t happen.

"This is, I think, the eighth time that Nigel Farage for example has been standing for Parliament and each time he has not succeeded."

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage visits Gold Beach in Arromanches in Normandy, France, to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings.

The leaders will put the combative point scoring aside to come together to commemorate the 80th anniversary of D-Day.

Both the Prime Minister and Sir Keir Starmer will join members of the Royal family at the British Normandy memorial in the village of Ver-sur-Mer to mark the 80th anniversary of D-Day.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is also in Normandy and is visiting Gold Beach in Arromanches this morning.

While the Tories appear to have taken a day off campaigning, Labour's shadow pensions secretary Liz Kendall is taking to the streets of Essex to speak to pensioners.

Ms Kendall is expected to tell pensioners to "look at your wallet, look at the quality of your healthcare and look at the lack of housing for your children and grandchildren and ask yourself, is this as good as it gets?"

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey will head to the West Country where he will focus on one of the party's manifesto commitments which is to improve cancer care.

At a press conference in London, the Green Party will announce a "game-changing" plan to spend £50 billion on health and social care over the next five years.