New poll shows how many seats Nigel Farage's Reform is set to win before big announcement

Nigel Farage's Reform UK could pick up as many as ten seats in the upcoming General Election, a bombshell new poll has found.

Ipsos' latest MRP estimates a thumping win for Labour with 453 seats and the Conservatives on 115.

A result of this scale would hand Sir Keir Starmer's party a huge majority of 256, and decimate the number of Tory MPs to record lows.

It comes just minutes before Mr Farage is set to make a "big announcement to local voters" in Clacton.

Meanwhile, Major figures on the Conservative benches such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg face losing their seats.

The projection also points to Farage winning in Clacton as he campaigns to become an MP for the first time, after seven failed attempts.

The projections show Farage at 52 percent in the Essex constinuency, with Labour’s Jovan Owusu-Nepual in a distant second at 24 percent.

Lee Anderson, who defected to Reform from the Tories in March, is also estimated to retain his seat in Ashfield.

Reform is projected to win three seats in total, but could get as many as 10, according to the poll.

The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile are poised to bag 38 seats, the SNP 15, and Greens three.

The pollster said 117 seats are currently too close to call, as they have a winning margin of less than five percentage points.

The model projects that former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who is running as an independent after being expelled from the parliamentary party, may lose his seat in Islington North after four decades in Westminster.

Corbyn was booted out of the PLP over his reaction to a critical report on antisemitism under his leadership, which he insisted had been "dramatically overstated".

He has since been fiercely critical of Sir Keir's leadership and retains loyal support among many Labour voters.

Ipsos's head of politics Gideon Skinner said the projections can change due to a variety of factors, and are riskier with big-name politicians.

"Is it the question of Jeremy Corbyn losing, or is it more a question of just Labour holding off in Islington? It may be that there is identity with Labour there, even if there is also support for Jeremy Corbyn as an individual candidate," he said.

He explained that while the methodology "is good at making estimates based on the demographic characteristics of each individual constituency," it's not so good at picking up "very unique political, local dynamics”.

“We make some efforts in areas where we know there are high-profile independents, we've made some changes to the approach to take that into account a bit more, but even so, that's not going to pick up the full picture of everything," he added.

The poll used the MRP, or multilevel with poststratification, technique to model results in individual constituencies based on a survey of 19,689 British adults, and took place between 7-12 June.