Rhodium Group

While global investment by Chinese companies had been in a tailspin since 2017, our data shows a rebound in new activity since 2022. Newly announced FDI values bottomed out in 2020 at $47 billion and increased to $67 billion in 2022 and $103 billion in 2023. Read more in our scene-setter note that contextualizes our new data portal on China's outbound economic footprint: https://lnkd.in/efqPky4b

After years of slowing outbound investment, Chinese companies are again expanding abroad, but with very different objectives and destinations than in the previous decade. Read our scene-setting note for our brand new data portal on China's OFDI:

Today, we're excited to launch a new data portal tracking China's global economic footprint. The new China Cross-Border Monitor tracks individual Chinese OFDI transactions, broken down by geography, industry, and investor type. Some highlights: Our Momentum data tracks announced transactions, which offer a view of where Chinese companies are planning to set up new investments. Our Data tab tracks completed FDI transactions, broken down into three views: Geographies, industries, and investors. The geographies tab lets you see where Chinese firms are investing at the global, regional, and country level. The industries tab lets you see what sectors China's firms are investing in. Each sector is further broken down into industries, offering a more granular view of what kind of business companies are operating in. Our investors tab lets you track what kind of firms—state-owned or private, local or central, and more—are investing. See the data for yourself:

Something exciting is coming next Monday! On September 16, we'll be launching a new data portal tracking China's global economic footprint. Stay tuned for more!

Catch Rhodium's Galen Bower in this event later today on effective policy-making for carbon dioxide removal. Learn more in a recent Rhodium report, assessing the landscape of different carbon dioxide removal approaches and policy options to help CDR scale to the level required for decarbonization by 2050. https://lnkd.in/guaE25Y4

Does capital actually flow to innovative companies through China's industrial policy? Not necessarily. At the Third Plenum in July this year, the Chinese Communist Party pledged to increase support for strategic and emerging industries, reaffirming its commitment to innovation-led economic growth. But the financial resources underpinning Beijing’s industrial policy are heavily constrained by China’s economic slowdown. Beijing is striving to better allocate the fewer resources it has to make its industrial policy more efficient. In this note, we comb through available data on China’s industrial policy funding to analyze the outlook for industrial policy financial support. The allocation of capital—be it direct grants, credit, or PE-VC investment—does not necessarily follow the objectives announced in Beijing policies. Decades of misdirected investment make it hard for financial actors to now channel their resources to more productive sectors and firms, creating tension between central government wishes and the needs of the financial sector. Beijing wants them to allocate more capital to small companies and emerging technologies, but they need to play it safe by funding large, established players and delaying losses in sectors affected by high overcapacity.

As efforts to harmonize US blacklists expand, we examine scenarios under a potential Harris or Trump administration and measure the impact on Chinese firms.

Great hosting Rhodium Group's Daniel Rosen in Tokyo alongside my partner Nobuko Kobayashi for a discussion on the region's changing economic and geopolitical landscape and implications for the strategies of multinationals

Nothing in economic development is certain, but China’s economy probably peaked in size as a proportion of the global economy in 2021, writes Logan Wright in the China Leadership Monitor. However, nothing about Beijing’s behavior in response to this structural slowdown is inevitable, as China’s leaders can adjust their economic objectives and potentially ease tensions with the rest of the world by publicly acknowledging a slower growth trajectory.

Efforts to harmonize US blacklists are expanding. In our latest note, we examine list streamlining scenarios under a potential Harris or Trump administration and measure the impact on Chinese firms.