Cross-Tabs: July 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide

July 3, 2024

Results of a nationwide New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 1,532 registered voters from June 28 to July 2, 2024.

Toplines | Registered Voter Cross-Tabs | Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs

Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Right track	22%	22%	21%	13%	19%	21%	29%	19%	30%	27%	26%	25%	19%	25%	15%	28%	28%	20%	23%	19%	25%	22%	23%	19%	41%	8%	11%	45%	7%	15%	13%	41%	4%	23%	40%	5%	16%
Wrong direction	69%	70%	68%	76%	71%	72%	60%	73%	56%	63%	62%	64%	72%	66%	78%	61%	60%	73%	70%	72%	59%	64%	68%	74%	48%	87%	67%	44%	88%	76%	68%	49%	91%	67%	48%	91%	71%
[VOLUNTEERED] Don't know/Refused	10%	8%	11%	11%	11%	6%	11%	8%	14%	10%	12%	10%	9%	10%	7%	11%	12%	7%	7%	9%	16%	14%	9%	7%	12%	5%	22%	11%	5%	10%	19%	11%	5%	10%	12%	5%	13%
Number of respondents	1,532	731	786	249	346	503	386	1,003	178	167	129	755	764	523	476	206	263	329	304	558	341	353	677	502	664	712	156	552	578	156	246	436	410	495	638	513	260
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	23%	31%	26%	65%	11%	11%	10%	38%	61%	26%	38%	11%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	23%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	33%	40%	10%	16%	28%	28%	32%	38%	35%	19%

Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Almost certain	55%	54%	55%	36%	51%	59%	65%	62%	46%	34%	41%	63%	50%	67%	58%	50%	36%	62%	56%	56%	45%	49%	54%	59%	59%	56%	29%	63%	62%	40%	30%	57%	63%	50%	60%	66%	23%
Very likely	25%	26%	25%	28%	24%	27%	22%	23%	29%	31%	31%	24%	26%	21%	24%	31%	30%	17%	25%	26%	32%	27%	26%	23%	26%	27%	16%	27%	27%	22%	20%	29%	27%	22%	27%	26%	20%
Somewhat likely	7%	7%	7%	19%	10%	4%	3%	5%	11%	16%	5%	6%	8%	6%	5%	6%	14%	6%	8%	7%	8%	9%	7%	6%	7%	6%	17%	5%	4%	12%	18%	6%	4%	12%	6%	2%	21%
Not very likely	4%	3%	4%	8%	5%	2%	1%	2%	5%	6%	8%	3%	4%	2%	3%	4%	7%	4%	4%	3%	4%	4%	5%	3%	1%	3%	15%	<.5%	2%	13%	9%	2%	2%	4%	2%	2%	10%
Not at all likely	6%	6%	5%	8%	8%	5%	3%	5%	6%	8%	11%	3%	7%	2%	6%	5%	10%	6%	7%	5%	6%	9%	4%	5%	4%	4%	18%	3%	2%	9%	18%	3%	<1%	10%	3%	1%	19%
[VOL] Already voted	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	4%	3%	1%	3%	3%	6%	3%	3%	5%	4%	2%	4%	2%	3%	3%	4%	4%	1%	3%	4%	2%	3%	4%	3%	3%	5%	2%	3%	4%	5%	4%	3%	2%	3%	2%	5%
Number of respondents	1,532	731	786	249	346	503	386	1,003	178	167	129	755	764	523	476	206	263	329	304	558	341	353	677	502	664	712	156	552	578	156	246	436	410	495	638	513	260
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	23%	31%	26%	65%	11%	11%	10%	38%	61%	26%	38%	11%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	23%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	33%	40%	10%	16%	28%	28%	32%	38%	35%	19%

(Includes leaners) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden, the Democrat	41%	31%	49%	40%	40%	35%	48%	37%	73%	41%	32%	52%	34%	51%	27%	56%	47%	41%	45%	34%	46%	51%	43%	31%	100%	0%	0%	100%	0%	32%	25%	90%	3%	37%	85%	1%	28%
Donald Trump, the Republican	49%	58%	42%	48%	50%	55%	44%	56%	15%	50%	48%	37%	56%	40%	66%	30%	40%	51%	44%	55%	43%	36%	47%	60%	0%	100%	0%	0%	100%	45%	27%	6%	95%	47%	7%	97%	50%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	10%	11%	9%	12%	11%	10%	8%	8%	12%	9%	20%	11%	10%	9%	7%	15%	13%	7%	10%	11%	11%	13%	10%	8%	0%	0%	100%	0%	0%	24%	48%	4%	2%	16%	8%	1%	22%
MARGIN Trump +9 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares
Number of respondents	1,532	731	786	249	346	503	386	1,003	178	167	129	755	764	523	476	206	263	329	304	558	341	353	677	502	664	712	156	552	578	156	246	436	410	495	638	513	260
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	23%	31%	26%	65%	11%	11%	10%	38%	61%	26%	38%	11%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	23%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	33%	40%	10%	16%	28%	28%	32%	38%	35%	19%

(Without leaners) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden, the Democrat	33%	27%	39%	27%	31%	31%	42%	32%	56%	29%	25%	46%	26%	47%	22%	45%	34%	35%	38%	27%	37%	40%	35%	26%	82%	0%	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	80%	2%	27%	75%	<1%	19%
Donald Trump, the Republican	40%	49%	33%	36%	36%	46%	41%	47%	13%	37%	32%	29%	47%	32%	58%	21%	29%	43%	33%	48%	32%	27%	37%	53%	0%	82%	0%	0%	100%	0%	0%	3%	88%	33%	4%	88%	32%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate	10%	9%	11%	15%	14%	9%	6%	8%	8%	19%	16%	9%	11%	9%	8%	10%	17%	9%	10%	9%	13%	12%	11%	8%	8%	9%	24%	0%	0%	100%	0%	8%	4%	18%	10%	5%	19%
Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate	2%	2%	2%	3%	4%	1%	<1%	2%	3%	3%	4%	3%	1%	3%	1%	5%	2%	1%	4%	2%	3%	4%	2%	1%	2%	<1%	7%	0%	0%	0%	13%	2%	0%	4%	3%	<.5%	3%
[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	2%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%
Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate	1%	2%	1%	4%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	0%	<1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	<1%	<.5%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	5%	0%	0%	0%	9%	<1%	0%	3%	<.5%	<1%	3%
[VOL] Another candidate (specify)	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	6%	0%	0%	0%	6%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	1%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices	4%	3%	5%	4%	4%	4%	3%	4%	4%	2%	7%	3%	4%	3%	4%	5%	4%	3%	4%	4%	6%	7%	3%	3%	1%	2%	22%	0%	0%	0%	24%	2%	1%	6%	3%	2%	9%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	7%	6%	9%	8%	8%	6%	7%	5%	15%	9%	9%	6%	8%	4%	5%	10%	12%	6%	9%	7%	9%	9%	8%	6%	5%	4%	35%	0%	0%	0%	46%	4%	3%	9%	5%	3%	13%
MARGIN Trump +7 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares
Number of respondents	1,532	731	786	249	346	503	386	1,003	178	167	129	755	764	523	476	206	263	329	304	558	341	353	677	502	664	712	156	552	578	156	246	436	410	495	638	513	260
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	23%	31%	26%	65%	11%	11%	10%	38%	61%	26%	38%	11%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	23%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	33%	40%	10%	16%	28%	28%	32%	38%	35%	19%

(Leaners, if not supporting Trump or Biden) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden, the Democrat	28%	18%	35%	36%	26%	16%	37%	23%	53%	34%	16%	25%	28%	23%	23%	32%	34%	27%	25%	29%	28%	33%	27%	24%	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	32%	25%	61%	7%	23%	50%	5%	20%
Donald Trump, the Republican	34%	37%	32%	32%	43%	39%	17%	40%	7%	42%	37%	32%	36%	36%	43%	24%	32%	40%	39%	25%	37%	28%	36%	37%	0%	100%	0%	-	100%	45%	27%	14%	70%	37%	13%	82%	37%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	38%	45%	33%	32%	32%	44%	46%	37%	40%	25%	47%	43%	36%	41%	33%	44%	34%	33%	36%	46%	34%	40%	37%	38%	0%	0%	100%	-	0%	24%	48%	26%	23%	40%	36%	13%	43%
Number of respondents	404	184	217	93	113	117	67	216	52	60	52	191	209	113	101	69	94	77	77	142	108	108	188	108	112	136	156		2	156	246	70	44	197	133	65	131
Percentage of total electorate	100%	45%	55%	23%	30%	27%	17%	51%	13%	15%	15%	36%	63%	21%	29%	13%	30%	18%	22%	33%	27%	28%	45%	28%	28%	34%	38%		1%	38%	61%	18%	10%	48%	30%	15%	37%

(Responses reclassified by age group) In what year were you born?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
18-29	16%	17%	15%	100%	0%	0%	0%	13%	24%	26%	21%	12%	19%	11%	14%	15%	29%	16%	13%	17%	19%	21%	17%	12%	16%	16%	19%	13%	14%	25%	22%	14%	13%	20%	10%	8%	45%
30-44	23%	24%	23%	0%	100%	0%	0%	21%	23%	30%	35%	30%	19%	28%	17%	38%	25%	21%	27%	20%	26%	28%	24%	20%	23%	24%	25%	22%	21%	32%	28%	23%	17%	26%	25%	18%	28%
45-64	31%	31%	31%	0%	0%	100%	0%	33%	29%	24%	29%	34%	30%	33%	33%	33%	25%	35%	30%	32%	26%	27%	32%	33%	27%	34%	31%	29%	35%	29%	25%	25%	37%	33%	31%	41%	16%
65+	26%	25%	27%	0%	0%	0%	100%	30%	20%	17%	12%	22%	28%	26%	34%	12%	19%	26%	27%	27%	24%	21%	25%	32%	31%	23%	21%	33%	27%	14%	19%	34%	30%	18%	32%	29%	9%
Refused	3%	3%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%	3%	2%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	4%	4%	3%	3%	4%	3%	3%	5%	3%	3%	<.5%	6%	3%	3%	3%	2%	4%	3%
Number of respondents	1,532	731	786	249	346	503	386	1,003	178	167	129	755	764	523	476	206	263	329	304	558	341	353	677	502	664	712	156	552	578	156	246	436	410	495	638	513	260
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	23%	31%	26%	65%	11%	11%	10%	38%	61%	26%	38%	11%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	23%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	33%	40%	10%	16%	28%	28%	32%	38%	35%	19%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Grade school	3%	4%	2%	0%	1%	2%	4%	1%	0%	10%	4%	0%	4%	0%	2%	0%	7%	<.5%	2%	3%	4%	2%	3%	3%	3%	2%	7%	3%	2%	3%	5%	4%	<1%	2%	2%	1%	5%
High school	28%	30%	27%	44%	19%	24%	32%	27%	30%	35%	26%	0%	46%	0%	46%	0%	47%	32%	26%	29%	25%	25%	25%	34%	21%	36%	20%	18%	38%	25%	26%	21%	37%	29%	18%	35%	40%
Vocational or trade school	5%	6%	3%	4%	4%	5%	5%	5%	4%	4%	3%	0%	7%	0%	8%	0%	6%	7%	3%	4%	4%	4%	3%	7%	2%	7%	4%	2%	7%	2%	4%	3%	6%	5%	2%	6%	6%
Some college, no degree	17%	14%	19%	19%	16%	17%	17%	16%	23%	18%	13%	0%	28%	0%	28%	0%	28%	15%	16%	17%	19%	15%	16%	20%	17%	17%	16%	16%	16%	20%	20%	18%	17%	15%	14%	18%	18%
Associate’s degree	9%	9%	9%	5%	11%	10%	9%	9%	10%	9%	6%	0%	15%	0%	15%	0%	13%	10%	8%	9%	10%	10%	8%	9%	8%	9%	11%	9%	9%	14%	7%	10%	8%	9%	9%	10%	8%
Bachelor's degree	23%	23%	23%	24%	30%	24%	16%	25%	16%	14%	27%	61%	0%	63%	0%	57%	0%	22%	26%	22%	23%	27%	27%	16%	26%	20%	26%	27%	19%	25%	23%	22%	22%	26%	28%	20%	16%
Graduate or professional degree	15%	13%	16%	4%	18%	17%	16%	15%	14%	9%	20%	39%	0%	37%	0%	43%	0%	13%	18%	14%	14%	17%	17%	10%	22%	9%	14%	25%	8%	9%	14%	22%	9%	15%	25%	8%	6%
[VOL] Refused	<1%	1%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<.5%	3%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<.5%
Number of respondents	1,532	731	786	249	346	503	386	1,003	178	167	129	755	764	523	476	206	263	329	304	558	341	353	677	502	664	712	156	552	578	156	246	436	410	495	638	513	260
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	23%	31%	26%	65%	11%	11%	10%	38%	61%	26%	38%	11%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	23%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	33%	40%	10%	16%	28%	28%	32%	38%	35%	19%

Would you consider yourself:
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
White	64%	66%	62%	49%	57%	68%	74%	99%	0%	0%	0%	69%	61%	99%	98%	0%	0%	75%	66%	59%	59%	48%	59%	79%	58%	72%	47%	62%	75%	52%	48%	54%	78%	65%	60%	80%	43%
Hispanic or Latino	11%	10%	12%	18%	14%	9%	7%	0%	0%	100%	0%	7%	14%	0%	0%	25%	39%	6%	10%	9%	20%	15%	14%	5%	11%	11%	10%	10%	10%	21%	10%	12%	10%	12%	10%	6%	24%
Black or African American	11%	10%	13%	17%	11%	10%	9%	0%	99%	0%	0%	9%	12%	0%	0%	32%	36%	8%	10%	18%	6%	19%	12%	6%	20%	3%	14%	19%	4%	9%	16%	22%	3%	8%	18%	3%	14%
Asian	2%	3%	2%	1%	6%	2%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	26%	4%	1%	0%	0%	16%	4%	2%	2%	2%	5%	5%	3%	<.5%	2%	3%	4%	2%	2%	3%	4%	3%	1%	2%	3%	1%	3%
American Indian or Alaska Native	<1%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	8%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%
Middle Eastern or North African	1%	2%	<1%	3%	<1%	1%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	12%	2%	<1%	0%	0%	8%	2%	1%	2%	1%	<1%	2%	1%	0%	<1%	1%	2%	<1%	1%	0%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	1%	<.5%	2%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	8%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	3%	2%	<1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<1%	2%
[VOL] Some other race (specify)	3%	4%	3%	5%	4%	4%	1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	23%	2%	4%	<1%	2%	7%	8%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	7%	3%	3%	5%	6%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	6%
[VOL] More than one race	2%	2%	3%	4%	3%	1%	2%	0%	0%	0%	22%	2%	2%	0%	0%	6%	7%	1%	<1%	3%	3%	3%	2%	2%	1%	2%	6%	1%	2%	6%	3%	2%	1%	2%	3%	2%	2%
[VOL] Refused	3%	3%	3%	2%	1%	3%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%	4%	3%	3%	2%	3%	4%	2%	3%	8%	2%	3%	2%	8%	1%	2%	3%	2%	3%	3%
Number of respondents	1,532	731	786	249	346	503	386	1,003	178	167	129	755	764	523	476	206	263	329	304	558	341	353	677	502	664	712	156	552	578	156	246	436	410	495	638	513	260
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	23%	31%	26%	65%	11%	11%	10%	38%	61%	26%	38%	11%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	23%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	33%	40%	10%	16%	28%	28%	32%	38%	35%	19%

Note: Responses to questions after this point are reported only for respondents who completed the entire questionnaire.
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Democrat	28%	18%	37%	25%	28%	23%	36%	23%	57%	29%	29%	32%	25%	30%	18%	40%	38%	27%	32%	23%	34%	40%	27%	21%	63%	3%	10%	68%	2%	20%	14%	100%	0%	0%	60%	3%	16%
Republican	29%	33%	25%	22%	23%	34%	35%	36%	8%	26%	19%	23%	33%	26%	42%	17%	17%	32%	23%	33%	24%	18%	27%	39%	2%	56%	6%	2%	63%	11%	9%	0%	100%	0%	4%	66%	14%
Independent	33%	39%	28%	41%	36%	34%	25%	33%	25%	36%	38%	36%	33%	37%	31%	30%	35%	31%	39%	32%	33%	33%	36%	31%	30%	32%	58%	26%	27%	59%	51%	0%	0%	100%	32%	24%	52%
Another party	4%	5%	3%	4%	6%	5%	<1%	4%	3%	2%	5%	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	3%	5%	<.5%	5%	5%	4%	4%	4%	3%	4%	8%	3%	3%	4%	10%	0%	0%	0%	2%	4%	4%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	6%	4%	6%	7%	8%	4%	4%	4%	7%	7%	8%	5%	5%	3%	4%	9%	7%	5%	6%	7%	4%	5%	6%	6%	2%	6%	19%	1%	5%	6%	15%	0%	0%	0%	2%	3%	15%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Donald Trump	36%	42%	31%	17%	30%	48%	41%	45%	12%	21%	24%	26%	43%	31%	55%	13%	21%	38%	31%	43%	30%	19%	33%	53%	1%	72%	6%	<1%	79%	18%	14%	3%	83%	26%	0%	100%	0%
Joe Biden	40%	33%	46%	27%	42%	38%	49%	37%	61%	34%	44%	55%	31%	54%	25%	62%	40%	41%	47%	34%	42%	53%	42%	28%	83%	6%	29%	88%	4%	37%	28%	85%	6%	38%	100%	0%	0%
I did not vote	19%	20%	19%	52%	22%	11%	8%	14%	23%	41%	28%	13%	23%	10%	16%	22%	36%	18%	18%	18%	24%	24%	21%	14%	13%	19%	45%	10%	15%	38%	40%	11%	9%	30%	0%	0%	100%
[VOL] Someone else	2%	3%	1%	3%	3%	2%	<.5%	2%	0%	2%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	<1%	3%	2%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	8%	<1%	<1%	5%	7%	<.5%	0%	4%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	2%	3%	1%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	<1%	2%	4%	2%	3%	2%	3%	1%	2%	12%	<1%	1%	2%	11%	<1%	1%	2%	0%	0%	0%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

(Excluding “I did not vote”) Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Donald Trump	45%	53%	39%	35%	38%	54%	44%	52%	16%	36%	33%	30%	55%	34%	65%	17%	32%	46%	38%	52%	39%	25%	42%	62%	2%	89%	11%	1%	93%	29%	24%	4%	92%	38%	0%	100%	-
Joe Biden	49%	41%	56%	56%	54%	42%	53%	43%	80%	59%	61%	64%	40%	59%	30%	79%	62%	50%	57%	41%	55%	69%	53%	33%	96%	7%	53%	98%	5%	59%	46%	95%	7%	53%	100%	0%	-
[VOL] Someone else	3%	4%	2%	7%	4%	2%	<.5%	3%	0%	3%	3%	3%	2%	4%	2%	2%	2%	3%	2%	2%	4%	2%	3%	2%	1%	2%	14%	<1%	<1%	7%	12%	<.5%	0%	6%	0%	0%	-
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	2%	2%	4%	<1%	3%	5%	3%	4%	2%	4%	1%	2%	22%	<1%	1%	4%	18%	1%	1%	3%	0%	0%	-
Number of respondents	1,028	475	541	111	230	379	282	733	110	81	75	553	468	406	324	129	134	219	217	373	219	240	443	345	490	470	68	427	405	84	112	330	309	311	544	426
Percentage of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	10%	23%	35%	30%	70%	11%	8%	8%	40%	59%	29%	40%	10%	17%	22%	21%	36%	22%	22%	41%	37%	44%	49%	7%	38%	43%	8%	11%	31%	33%	29%	49%	45%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Strongly approve	17%	14%	20%	3%	10%	18%	31%	17%	25%	16%	13%	22%	14%	23%	12%	17%	19%	15%	21%	15%	20%	20%	19%	13%	40%	1%	2%	46%	<.5%	3%	6%	44%	1%	11%	38%	2%	4%
Somewhat approve	17%	14%	18%	19%	18%	14%	18%	14%	34%	14%	19%	19%	15%	19%	11%	23%	23%	20%	17%	15%	14%	19%	18%	13%	36%	2%	9%	36%	2%	15%	11%	33%	3%	16%	32%	<1%	16%
Somewhat disapprove	14%	13%	15%	30%	18%	10%	7%	13%	18%	19%	16%	17%	13%	17%	10%	19%	18%	12%	16%	15%	14%	18%	16%	11%	14%	11%	32%	11%	8%	31%	27%	12%	8%	21%	16%	6%	24%
Strongly disapprove	48%	54%	43%	42%	48%	57%	40%	55%	16%	44%	43%	38%	54%	39%	65%	35%	33%	51%	41%	51%	46%	36%	44%	59%	6%	83%	45%	3%	89%	49%	37%	8%	88%	44%	11%	90%	45%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	4%	5%	4%	7%	5%	1%	4%	2%	8%	7%	9%	3%	4%	2%	3%	6%	8%	3%	4%	4%	6%	7%	3%	4%	4%	3%	13%	3%	<1%	2%	18%	3%	<1%	6%	3%	<1%	12%
NET Approve	34%	28%	38%	22%	28%	32%	49%	30%	59%	30%	32%	42%	29%	42%	22%	40%	41%	35%	38%	30%	34%	39%	37%	26%	76%	4%	11%	82%	2%	18%	18%	77%	4%	28%	71%	3%	20%
NET Disapprove	62%	67%	58%	71%	67%	67%	47%	67%	34%	63%	59%	55%	67%	56%	75%	54%	51%	62%	58%	66%	60%	54%	60%	70%	20%	94%	76%	15%	97%	80%	64%	20%	95%	66%	26%	96%	68%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very favorable	23%	26%	20%	14%	16%	29%	26%	27%	10%	18%	11%	15%	27%	16%	35%	12%	13%	22%	18%	29%	18%	13%	20%	32%	<1%	44%	5%	<.5%	52%	6%	5%	<1%	56%	14%	2%	55%	9%
Somewhat favorable	20%	23%	17%	23%	25%	19%	14%	20%	8%	28%	20%	13%	24%	14%	25%	11%	21%	21%	16%	20%	21%	11%	21%	24%	2%	38%	4%	<1%	38%	21%	13%	4%	29%	24%	4%	34%	27%
Somewhat unfavorable	11%	12%	9%	19%	13%	10%	5%	9%	15%	12%	14%	10%	11%	11%	8%	8%	16%	10%	13%	11%	8%	12%	12%	8%	7%	12%	21%	6%	7%	21%	25%	6%	9%	17%	9%	7%	18%
Very unfavorable	44%	36%	51%	40%	43%	41%	51%	41%	61%	38%	49%	58%	36%	57%	31%	61%	45%	44%	51%	36%	50%	60%	44%	33%	89%	4%	58%	92%	2%	50%	45%	87%	5%	44%	84%	3%	40%
[VOL] Have not heard of	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	1%	3%	1%	5%	4%	7%	3%	3%	1%	1%	7%	4%	2%	3%	4%	3%	4%	2%	3%	2%	2%	12%	1%	1%	2%	12%	2%	<1%	2%	1%	<.5%	7%
NET Favorable	42%	49%	37%	37%	40%	48%	40%	48%	17%	46%	31%	28%	51%	30%	60%	23%	34%	43%	34%	49%	39%	24%	41%	56%	2%	82%	9%	<1%	90%	27%	18%	4%	85%	37%	6%	89%	35%
NET Unfavorable	55%	48%	60%	59%	57%	51%	56%	51%	76%	50%	63%	69%	47%	69%	39%	70%	61%	55%	64%	47%	58%	72%	56%	41%	96%	16%	79%	98%	9%	71%	69%	93%	14%	60%	93%	10%	57%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden.
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very favorable	16%	12%	19%	3%	6%	17%	29%	15%	25%	15%	13%	17%	15%	17%	13%	14%	20%	15%	16%	14%	18%	17%	16%	13%	36%	1%	3%	40%	1%	7%	3%	41%	2%	10%	35%	2%	4%
Somewhat favorable	20%	18%	22%	20%	25%	18%	19%	17%	38%	17%	25%	28%	15%	26%	11%	34%	23%	26%	22%	17%	17%	25%	21%	16%	40%	4%	16%	42%	3%	24%	14%	38%	2%	21%	38%	<1%	22%
Somewhat unfavorable	20%	20%	19%	41%	27%	12%	8%	19%	13%	27%	24%	19%	20%	20%	19%	17%	23%	17%	24%	18%	20%	23%	21%	15%	18%	19%	28%	13%	15%	38%	34%	14%	14%	29%	17%	14%	32%
Very unfavorable	41%	47%	36%	30%	40%	50%	39%	47%	17%	34%	32%	34%	45%	35%	56%	30%	26%	41%	37%	47%	37%	29%	37%	54%	3%	73%	39%	2%	80%	29%	33%	5%	80%	37%	8%	82%	33%
[VOL] Have not heard of	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	4%	3%	4%	6%	2%	2%	5%	2%	7%	7%	6%	3%	4%	2%	2%	5%	8%	2%	2%	4%	7%	5%	5%	2%	3%	2%	13%	3%	2%	1%	15%	3%	2%	3%	3%	1%	9%
NET Favorable	36%	30%	41%	24%	30%	36%	48%	32%	63%	31%	38%	45%	30%	44%	23%	47%	43%	40%	38%	32%	36%	43%	37%	29%	76%	5%	19%	82%	4%	32%	18%	79%	4%	31%	73%	3%	26%
NET Unfavorable	61%	67%	55%	70%	67%	62%	48%	66%	30%	61%	56%	53%	66%	55%	74%	47%	49%	58%	61%	64%	57%	52%	58%	69%	20%	92%	68%	15%	95%	67%	67%	19%	94%	65%	25%	96%	65%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

How much attention are you paying to the upcoming presidential election?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
A lot	57%	59%	56%	29%	47%	66%	72%	63%	44%	42%	48%	65%	52%	69%	60%	53%	39%	58%	60%	57%	55%	50%	56%	63%	60%	58%	42%	64%	63%	36%	41%	60%	69%	49%	62%	69%	30%
Some	28%	27%	29%	44%	34%	24%	20%	27%	32%	33%	27%	23%	31%	22%	30%	28%	33%	29%	25%	29%	27%	32%	28%	25%	29%	27%	29%	26%	25%	42%	31%	28%	23%	32%	27%	24%	38%
Not much	10%	10%	8%	18%	13%	6%	5%	8%	12%	16%	10%	7%	11%	8%	8%	7%	16%	10%	10%	10%	9%	10%	10%	9%	8%	10%	13%	8%	9%	14%	12%	9%	6%	11%	9%	6%	17%
None at all	5%	4%	7%	9%	6%	4%	2%	2%	11%	9%	14%	4%	6%	2%	2%	12%	12%	3%	5%	4%	9%	7%	6%	3%	4%	4%	16%	3%	2%	9%	16%	3%	1%	8%	3%	2%	16%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Do you think Joe Biden should remain the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Democratic nominee for president?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden should remain the Democratic nominee	31%	34%	28%	18%	18%	32%	47%	32%	43%	23%	23%	35%	29%	36%	28%	31%	30%	33%	28%	31%	30%	31%	30%	31%	47%	22%	10%	53%	25%	9%	10%	48%	28%	22%	44%	28%	12%
There should be a different Democratic nominee	60%	57%	63%	73%	76%	58%	42%	60%	47%	69%	62%	56%	62%	56%	63%	57%	60%	59%	64%	59%	60%	59%	61%	59%	47%	68%	73%	40%	63%	89%	75%	47%	60%	72%	49%	61%	78%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	9%	9%	9%	9%	6%	10%	11%	8%	9%	8%	14%	9%	9%	7%	9%	11%	10%	8%	9%	10%	10%	10%	8%	10%	6%	10%	17%	7%	11%	3%	15%	5%	12%	6%	6%	11%	10%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Do you think Donald Trump should remain the Republican Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Republican nominee for president?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Donald Trump should remain the Republican nominee	42%	49%	35%	41%	38%	45%	42%	48%	22%	40%	28%	32%	47%	33%	57%	29%	29%	46%	35%	47%	36%	26%	41%	53%	7%	78%	8%	7%	87%	17%	15%	9%	83%	35%	9%	85%	35%
There should be a different Republican nominee	51%	43%	58%	51%	55%	50%	51%	48%	66%	57%	53%	62%	45%	63%	38%	61%	59%	50%	60%	44%	56%	64%	53%	40%	87%	17%	72%	87%	9%	77%	65%	86%	13%	58%	86%	12%	52%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	7%	7%	6%	9%	8%	5%	7%	4%	13%	3%	20%	6%	7%	4%	5%	10%	12%	4%	5%	9%	8%	10%	5%	7%	6%	6%	20%	6%	4%	6%	20%	5%	3%	8%	6%	3%	13%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Did you watch or hear about the presidential debate that took place on Thursday, June 27?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Watched on debate night	59%	63%	56%	38%	49%	64%	74%	62%	50%	51%	52%	62%	57%	64%	61%	55%	50%	60%	58%	60%	56%	54%	60%	61%	56%	63%	48%	58%	67%	45%	47%	56%	71%	54%	59%	69%	41%
Watched clips afterward	16%	15%	16%	23%	23%	13%	9%	16%	16%	13%	16%	18%	14%	18%	15%	19%	13%	14%	16%	16%	17%	20%	14%	15%	18%	14%	13%	17%	12%	25%	16%	19%	12%	15%	16%	12%	19%
Heard about the debate	15%	15%	16%	25%	16%	13%	11%	14%	18%	19%	15%	14%	16%	14%	14%	15%	19%	16%	13%	16%	16%	15%	14%	17%	17%	12%	22%	18%	12%	12%	19%	17%	10%	15%	16%	12%	18%
No	10%	7%	12%	13%	12%	9%	6%	7%	16%	17%	17%	6%	12%	4%	9%	11%	18%	9%	13%	8%	11%	11%	12%	7%	9%	9%	17%	7%	7%	18%	18%	8%	7%	16%	8%	7%	21%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%
NET Watched or heard about	90%	92%	88%	87%	88%	90%	93%	93%	84%	83%	83%	94%	88%	96%	91%	89%	82%	91%	87%	91%	89%	89%	87%	93%	91%	90%	83%	93%	92%	82%	82%	92%	93%	84%	92%	93%	79%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

(If watched or heard about debate) How well do you think Joe Biden did in the presidential debate?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	3%	4%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	2%	4%	2%	4%	2%	3%	1%	3%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	3%	2%	4%	2%	<.5%	5%	2%	<.5%	<1%	5%	2%	2%	4%	2%	0%
Somewhat well	14%	9%	18%	9%	12%	12%	19%	10%	35%	17%	10%	12%	15%	13%	9%	12%	27%	14%	11%	12%	17%	18%	14%	10%	28%	3%	4%	28%	3%	13%	7%	30%	2%	10%	27%	1%	12%
Not too well	24%	21%	27%	36%	29%	17%	22%	22%	28%	30%	26%	27%	22%	24%	21%	34%	26%	25%	22%	25%	24%	28%	22%	24%	33%	17%	21%	32%	14%	25%	32%	31%	15%	26%	31%	13%	34%
Not well at all	57%	63%	50%	51%	53%	68%	52%	62%	26%	49%	58%	55%	57%	59%	64%	45%	41%	55%	62%	56%	53%	49%	56%	61%	32%	76%	61%	32%	79%	60%	49%	30%	79%	59%	36%	81%	51%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	3%	3%	3%	5%	2%	3%	3%	6%	3%	2%	3%	3%	3%	3%	5%	3%	3%	3%	4%	3%	2%	4%	3%	3%	2%	14%	3%	1%	2%	11%	4%	1%	3%	3%	3%	4%
NET Well	16%	13%	19%	11%	13%	14%	23%	13%	40%	19%	14%	14%	17%	14%	12%	16%	30%	17%	13%	15%	19%	21%	18%	12%	32%	5%	4%	33%	5%	14%	8%	35%	4%	13%	31%	3%	12%
NET Not well	81%	84%	77%	86%	81%	85%	74%	84%	55%	78%	84%	83%	79%	83%	85%	80%	67%	80%	84%	81%	78%	77%	79%	85%	65%	93%	82%	64%	94%	85%	81%	61%	95%	85%	66%	94%	84%
Number of respondents	1,132	542	577	176	258	382	287	783	117	113	87	595	531	429	351	145	169	238	232	411	251	278	482	372	511	522	99	442	436	108	146	340	319	368	508	404	167
Percentage of total electorate	100%	49%	50%	16%	23%	32%	27%	68%	11%	11%	9%	39%	60%	28%	39%	10%	20%	21%	20%	36%	23%	23%	41%	36%	41%	49%	9%	36%	42%	10%	13%	29%	30%	31%	41%	38%	17%

(If watched or heard about debate) How well do you think Donald Trump did in the presidential debate?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very well	22%	26%	19%	12%	15%	26%	29%	26%	7%	18%	16%	16%	26%	17%	33%	12%	13%	23%	16%	25%	23%	15%	20%	30%	2%	43%	3%	2%	49%	5%	5%	3%	54%	12%	4%	50%	9%
Somewhat well	29%	32%	25%	34%	32%	34%	19%	29%	17%	38%	25%	26%	31%	27%	31%	24%	29%	27%	33%	29%	26%	23%	30%	31%	13%	44%	19%	12%	42%	34%	26%	15%	35%	33%	14%	40%	38%
Not too well	16%	15%	17%	27%	22%	12%	12%	15%	23%	18%	21%	19%	15%	18%	13%	21%	20%	17%	16%	17%	15%	20%	16%	15%	26%	8%	18%	26%	5%	28%	20%	24%	5%	21%	25%	5%	22%
Not well at all	27%	22%	33%	22%	26%	25%	36%	25%	46%	23%	31%	34%	23%	33%	19%	36%	32%	26%	30%	25%	30%	37%	29%	19%	53%	3%	46%	55%	2%	31%	32%	53%	4%	27%	52%	2%	24%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	5%	5%	5%	6%	6%	4%	4%	5%	7%	4%	7%	6%	5%	5%	5%	8%	5%	7%	4%	5%	5%	5%	5%	6%	5%	3%	15%	5%	3%	2%	17%	5%	2%	6%	5%	3%	7%
NET Well	51%	58%	44%	45%	46%	59%	48%	55%	24%	56%	41%	42%	57%	43%	64%	35%	43%	50%	49%	53%	49%	38%	50%	60%	15%	87%	22%	14%	91%	39%	31%	18%	89%	46%	18%	90%	47%
NET Not well	44%	37%	50%	49%	48%	36%	48%	40%	68%	40%	52%	52%	38%	52%	32%	57%	52%	43%	46%	42%	45%	57%	45%	34%	79%	10%	64%	81%	6%	59%	52%	78%	9%	48%	77%	7%	46%
Number of respondents	1,132	542	577	176	258	382	287	783	117	113	87	595	531	429	351	145	169	238	232	411	251	278	482	372	511	522	99	442	436	108	146	340	319	368	508	404	167
Percentage of total electorate	100%	49%	50%	16%	23%	32%	27%	68%	11%	11%	9%	39%	60%	28%	39%	10%	20%	21%	20%	36%	23%	23%	41%	36%	41%	49%	9%	36%	42%	10%	13%	29%	30%	31%	41%	38%	17%

(If watched or heard about debate) Who do you think did better in the debate?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden	22%	16%	29%	20%	17%	19%	31%	19%	47%	16%	26%	23%	22%	22%	17%	27%	32%	25%	25%	20%	23%	31%	22%	18%	51%	<1%	12%	51%	<.5%	20%	17%	51%	<1%	20%	45%	1%	17%
Donald Trump	60%	69%	51%	59%	63%	68%	51%	66%	29%	66%	47%	56%	63%	59%	70%	46%	47%	57%	63%	64%	54%	47%	60%	69%	24%	94%	41%	23%	97%	57%	48%	23%	94%	64%	31%	94%	55%
[VOL] About the same	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	3%	<1%	1%	2%	5%	2%	<1%	2%	0%	3%	3%	<1%	<1%	2%	2%	1%	3%	<.5%	2%	<1%	4%	2%	<.5%	1%	5%	1%	<.5%	2%	2%	<.5%	1%
[VOL] Neither did better	10%	9%	11%	6%	12%	8%	11%	8%	14%	10%	14%	12%	8%	11%	7%	16%	11%	10%	8%	9%	12%	15%	9%	8%	17%	2%	21%	17%	1%	15%	15%	16%	3%	10%	16%	2%	14%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	6%	4%	7%	13%	6%	4%	5%	6%	9%	5%	8%	6%	6%	6%	5%	8%	7%	7%	4%	5%	8%	6%	7%	5%	7%	2%	21%	8%	1%	7%	15%	9%	2%	5%	6%	2%	13%
Number of respondents	1,132	542	577	176	258	382	287	783	117	113	87	595	531	429	351	145	169	238	232	411	251	278	482	372	511	522	99	442	436	108	146	340	319	368	508	404	167
Percentage of total electorate	100%	49%	50%	16%	23%	32%	27%	68%	11%	11%	9%	39%	60%	28%	39%	10%	20%	21%	20%	36%	23%	23%	41%	36%	41%	49%	9%	36%	42%	10%	13%	29%	30%	31%	41%	38%	17%

Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Better	47%	52%	43%	46%	44%	54%	45%	53%	22%	50%	33%	34%	56%	36%	65%	26%	40%	51%	41%	54%	39%	30%	45%	61%	4%	88%	22%	4%	92%	36%	30%	7%	92%	42%	9%	92%	44%
Worse	46%	39%	51%	48%	46%	42%	49%	43%	69%	38%	50%	59%	38%	59%	31%	61%	49%	42%	55%	40%	49%	62%	46%	34%	91%	6%	54%	94%	3%	50%	48%	89%	5%	48%	87%	4%	42%
[VOL] The same	2%	2%	1%	2%	4%	<1%	1%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	<1%	4%	2%	3%	<.5%	<1%	2%	5%	0%	1%	6%	5%	0%	<1%	3%	<1%	1%	3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	5%	6%	5%	5%	6%	4%	5%	3%	6%	10%	16%	5%	5%	3%	3%	11%	9%	7%	2%	5%	8%	5%	6%	5%	4%	4%	19%	2%	4%	8%	17%	4%	2%	7%	3%	3%	11%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Better	34%	28%	38%	26%	28%	32%	46%	33%	53%	28%	25%	45%	27%	47%	23%	43%	34%	36%	39%	27%	37%	42%	35%	26%	78%	2%	7%	86%	2%	17%	12%	76%	4%	29%	72%	3%	19%
Worse	58%	66%	52%	62%	62%	64%	47%	62%	35%	61%	52%	47%	65%	48%	72%	43%	52%	58%	54%	63%	53%	47%	55%	69%	13%	94%	68%	9%	96%	70%	59%	16%	95%	60%	19%	95%	67%
[VOL] The same	5%	3%	6%	7%	7%	3%	5%	3%	7%	4%	13%	4%	5%	3%	3%	8%	7%	3%	6%	5%	5%	6%	6%	3%	6%	2%	13%	3%	<1%	11%	14%	6%	2%	5%	6%	1%	8%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	4%	3%	4%	5%	3%	2%	3%	2%	5%	7%	10%	3%	3%	2%	1%	7%	7%	3%	<1%	5%	5%	5%	4%	3%	4%	2%	12%	2%	1%	2%	15%	2%	<.5%	6%	3%	<1%	6%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Next, regardless of who you support for president, tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements.
Joe Biden is just too old to be an effective president.
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Strongly agree	53%	60%	48%	64%	57%	55%	44%	56%	32%	61%	54%	49%	56%	49%	60%	49%	48%	50%	54%	54%	56%	52%	53%	55%	29%	71%	64%	23%	71%	69%	65%	26%	72%	58%	30%	72%	66%
Somewhat agree	21%	17%	25%	20%	27%	19%	20%	21%	21%	22%	19%	25%	19%	25%	19%	26%	19%	25%	23%	17%	21%	23%	22%	19%	32%	12%	19%	35%	12%	20%	16%	33%	10%	21%	32%	11%	18%
Somewhat disagree	11%	9%	14%	9%	9%	12%	13%	10%	21%	7%	16%	13%	10%	15%	7%	11%	17%	11%	13%	12%	8%	14%	10%	11%	19%	6%	5%	20%	6%	6%	8%	20%	7%	10%	19%	6%	8%
Strongly disagree	10%	11%	10%	4%	5%	11%	18%	9%	23%	8%	6%	10%	10%	9%	9%	12%	13%	11%	7%	12%	10%	10%	11%	9%	18%	5%	4%	20%	6%	4%	4%	19%	7%	7%	17%	7%	4%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	4%	4%	4%	3%	2%	3%	6%	4%	3%	2%	5%	3%	4%	3%	4%	3%	4%	4%	3%	5%	4%	1%	4%	6%	2%	5%	7%	2%	5%	2%	7%	2%	4%	4%	2%	5%	4%
NET Agree	74%	77%	73%	84%	84%	74%	64%	77%	53%	83%	73%	74%	75%	74%	79%	74%	67%	74%	77%	71%	78%	75%	75%	74%	61%	84%	83%	57%	83%	88%	82%	59%	82%	79%	62%	82%	83%
NET Disagree	22%	20%	24%	13%	14%	23%	31%	19%	44%	15%	22%	23%	21%	24%	17%	23%	29%	22%	20%	24%	18%	24%	22%	20%	37%	12%	9%	41%	12%	10%	12%	38%	14%	16%	36%	12%	13%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Donald Trump is just too old to be an effective president.
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Strongly agree	22%	21%	22%	29%	20%	18%	24%	20%	24%	26%	28%	24%	21%	23%	18%	27%	26%	22%	23%	17%	28%	31%	20%	17%	39%	6%	31%	36%	4%	33%	30%	37%	4%	23%	36%	4%	24%
Somewhat agree	21%	17%	24%	31%	24%	19%	12%	20%	20%	25%	21%	25%	18%	24%	17%	27%	20%	23%	19%	18%	24%	23%	25%	14%	25%	15%	29%	26%	13%	27%	25%	24%	11%	27%	26%	11%	26%
Somewhat disagree	21%	22%	21%	21%	27%	20%	19%	21%	25%	17%	27%	24%	20%	27%	16%	19%	25%	19%	24%	23%	19%	20%	20%	24%	21%	22%	19%	21%	20%	23%	23%	21%	19%	25%	21%	17%	27%
Strongly disagree	33%	37%	29%	18%	24%	42%	39%	36%	26%	29%	21%	23%	38%	23%	45%	21%	26%	33%	32%	37%	27%	23%	32%	40%	11%	55%	11%	13%	60%	16%	15%	15%	64%	22%	14%	64%	18%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	4%	3%	4%	2%	4%	1%	6%	3%	5%	3%	4%	4%	4%	3%	4%	6%	3%	4%	2%	6%	3%	3%	4%	5%	4%	3%	10%	4%	3%	1%	7%	4%	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%
NET Agree	42%	38%	46%	60%	44%	37%	36%	40%	44%	51%	49%	49%	39%	47%	35%	54%	46%	45%	42%	35%	52%	54%	45%	31%	64%	21%	60%	62%	17%	60%	55%	61%	15%	49%	62%	15%	51%
NET Disagree	54%	59%	50%	39%	52%	61%	58%	57%	51%	46%	47%	47%	58%	50%	61%	40%	51%	52%	56%	60%	45%	43%	51%	64%	33%	76%	30%	34%	80%	39%	38%	35%	82%	47%	35%	81%	45%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

(If Biden is too old to be effective) Thinking again about Joe Biden’s age, which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden’s age makes him ineffective, but he is still able to handle the job of president well enough	22%	18%	25%	23%	23%	21%	22%	21%	27%	21%	20%	28%	18%	28%	17%	30%	20%	25%	24%	18%	21%	25%	24%	17%	43%	5%	18%	43%	5%	23%	18%	39%	6%	23%	39%	5%	19%
Joe Biden’s age is such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president	50%	55%	45%	59%	58%	49%	39%	53%	22%	56%	52%	43%	54%	43%	60%	40%	44%	48%	48%	51%	53%	47%	49%	54%	16%	76%	63%	11%	75%	65%	61%	17%	73%	55%	20%	74%	63%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	3%	3%	2%	2%	4%	2%	2%	4%	5%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	4%	4%	2%	5%	2%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	<1%	3%	4%	3%	1%	3%	4%	1%
[PREVIOUSLY] Somewhat disagree	11%	9%	14%	9%	9%	12%	13%	10%	21%	7%	16%	13%	10%	15%	7%	11%	17%	11%	13%	12%	8%	14%	10%	11%	19%	6%	5%	20%	6%	6%	8%	20%	7%	10%	19%	6%	8%
[PREVIOUSLY] Strongly disagree	10%	11%	10%	4%	5%	11%	18%	9%	23%	8%	6%	10%	10%	9%	9%	12%	13%	11%	7%	12%	10%	10%	11%	9%	18%	5%	4%	20%	6%	4%	4%	19%	7%	7%	17%	7%	4%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know/Refused	4%	4%	4%	3%	2%	3%	6%	4%	3%	2%	5%	3%	4%	3%	4%	3%	4%	4%	3%	5%	4%	1%	4%	6%	2%	5%	7%	2%	5%	2%	7%	2%	4%	4%	2%	5%	4%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

(If Trump is too old to be effective) Thinking again about Donald Trump’s age, which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Donald Trump’s age makes him ineffective, but he is still able to handle the job of president well enough	21%	20%	22%	37%	22%	19%	13%	21%	16%	30%	18%	24%	20%	23%	20%	25%	20%	23%	22%	17%	25%	20%	25%	16%	21%	18%	33%	20%	15%	40%	27%	22%	12%	27%	23%	14%	30%
Donald Trump’s age is such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president	19%	16%	21%	20%	20%	17%	20%	17%	21%	19%	28%	23%	16%	23%	14%	26%	22%	20%	17%	16%	24%	30%	17%	13%	39%	2%	23%	38%	1%	20%	23%	34%	1%	21%	35%	<1%	17%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	2%	3%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	7%	2%	3%	2%	3%	1%	2%	3%	5%	2%	3%	2%	3%	4%	2%	<1%	3%	1%	4%	4%	<1%	<.5%	6%	4%	<1%	1%	4%	<1%	3%
[PREVIOUSLY] Somewhat disagree	21%	22%	21%	21%	27%	20%	19%	21%	25%	17%	27%	24%	20%	27%	16%	19%	25%	19%	24%	23%	19%	20%	20%	24%	21%	22%	19%	21%	20%	23%	23%	21%	19%	25%	21%	17%	27%
[PREVIOUSLY] Strongly disagree	33%	37%	29%	18%	24%	42%	39%	36%	26%	29%	21%	23%	38%	23%	45%	21%	26%	33%	32%	37%	27%	23%	32%	40%	11%	55%	11%	13%	60%	16%	15%	15%	64%	22%	14%	64%	18%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know/Refused	4%	3%	4%	2%	4%	1%	6%	3%	5%	3%	4%	4%	4%	3%	4%	6%	3%	4%	2%	6%	3%	3%	4%	5%	4%	3%	10%	4%	3%	1%	7%	4%	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Do you think Joe Biden has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes	48%	43%	54%	46%	47%	45%	56%	45%	76%	40%	55%	60%	42%	58%	35%	64%	54%	47%	55%	44%	50%	61%	49%	39%	89%	17%	41%	92%	13%	48%	47%	87%	15%	50%	85%	14%	40%
No	50%	55%	45%	52%	52%	54%	42%	54%	21%	57%	43%	39%	57%	40%	64%	33%	44%	51%	44%	53%	49%	37%	49%	59%	10%	82%	51%	7%	87%	52%	44%	13%	84%	48%	14%	85%	56%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	2%	1%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	3%	3%	2%	1%	3%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	8%	<1%	<1%	0%	9%	<1%	1%	2%	1%	<.5%	4%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Do you think Donald Trump has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes	45%	53%	38%	41%	45%	51%	40%	49%	20%	52%	37%	32%	53%	33%	60%	27%	40%	44%	38%	51%	42%	32%	42%	57%	5%	83%	18%	3%	89%	32%	31%	8%	88%	39%	8%	89%	41%
No	53%	45%	61%	56%	54%	49%	57%	50%	74%	47%	62%	66%	45%	65%	39%	71%	57%	54%	60%	45%	57%	66%	56%	41%	94%	15%	72%	96%	10%	65%	63%	91%	11%	60%	92%	9%	54%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	1%	6%	1%	<1%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	4%	1%	1%	4%	1%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	9%	<1%	2%	3%	6%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	4%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
[VOL] The economy (including jobs and the stock market)	20%	23%	18%	15%	19%	27%	16%	20%	16%	22%	21%	19%	21%	17%	23%	25%	17%	20%	21%	22%	16%	18%	19%	24%	12%	28%	16%	11%	28%	23%	17%	13%	26%	22%	13%	27%	20%
[VOL] Inflation and the cost of living	6%	8%	5%	7%	11%	4%	4%	6%	4%	7%	7%	4%	8%	4%	8%	4%	7%	8%	5%	5%	8%	5%	5%	7%	3%	9%	4%	3%	8%	9%	7%	3%	7%	7%	3%	8%	9%
[VOL] Abortion	8%	3%	13%	13%	7%	7%	8%	9%	8%	6%	7%	12%	6%	14%	6%	7%	7%	7%	11%	7%	8%	10%	8%	7%	15%	4%	4%	15%	4%	5%	8%	16%	5%	6%	14%	3%	7%
[VOL] Immigration	14%	17%	13%	7%	8%	21%	17%	17%	4%	15%	8%	11%	16%	12%	21%	10%	9%	17%	15%	15%	11%	8%	14%	19%	4%	24%	8%	4%	27%	9%	9%	5%	28%	12%	5%	29%	8%
[VOL] Crime	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	0%	1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<.5%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	0%
[VOL] Gun policies	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<1%	0%	1%	0%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0%	<1%	<.5%	1%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%
[VOL] Health care	2%	<1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	2%	4%	<1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	3%	1%	1%	3%	<1%	1%	3%	<.5%	5%	<1%	3%	0%	2%	3%	<1%	2%
[VOL] Education	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	1%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	0%
[VOL] Foreign policy	5%	5%	6%	7%	5%	4%	3%	5%	5%	4%	6%	5%	5%	4%	6%	7%	4%	4%	6%	4%	6%	5%	6%	4%	3%	6%	8%	2%	5%	10%	7%	3%	6%	4%	4%	5%	7%
[VOL] Russia/the war in Ukraine	<1%	<1%	<.5%	2%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	2%	0%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	2%	<1%	0%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0%	<1%	<.5%	2%	0%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
[VOL] China	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%
[VOL] Climate change	1%	2%	<1%	1%	3%	<.5%	<1%	1%	0%	2%	<1%	2%	<1%	3%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	<.5%	2%	3%	<1%	<1%	2%	<.5%	0%	2%	<.5%	1%	1%	3%	0%	1%	2%	0%	<1%
[VOL] The state of democracy/corruption	8%	8%	9%	3%	7%	7%	13%	9%	11%	2%	5%	14%	5%	16%	5%	9%	5%	10%	10%	7%	8%	9%	9%	7%	19%	1%	2%	22%	1%	3%	1%	16%	1%	9%	18%	2%	3%
[VOL] Election integrity	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	0%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%
[VOL] Equality/inequality	1%	<1%	2%	5%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	1%	<1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	0%	2%	2%	<.5%	<1%	3%	1%	2%	<1%	3%	<.5%	0%	2%	<.5%	4%	<1%	2%	0%	3%	2%	0%	3%
[VOL] Polarization/division	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	2%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<1%	0%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	0%
[VOL] Racism/racial issues	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	1%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<1%	1%	0%	0%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	4%	0%	0%	<1%	2%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	1%
[VOL] Dislike of opposing candidate (Trump or Biden)	3%	4%	2%	2%	5%	2%	4%	4%	2%	2%	2%	3%	3%	4%	4%	2%	2%	2%	1%	3%	6%	3%	4%	3%	5%	2%	2%	5%	3%	2%	<1%	4%	3%	3%	5%	2%	2%
[VOL] Character/competence of candidate (Trump or Biden)	10%	10%	10%	7%	5%	11%	14%	8%	16%	12%	11%	10%	10%	10%	7%	9%	15%	8%	7%	12%	10%	10%	10%	8%	13%	6%	11%	14%	7%	9%	9%	12%	6%	10%	13%	7%	8%
[VOL] The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians	2%	2%	2%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	1%	<.5%	2%	6%	3%	<1%	3%	<1%	6%	<1%	2%	3%	<.5%	2%	3%	2%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	7%	2%	<.5%	<1%	6%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	<1%	2%
[VOL] Taxes	2%	2%	<1%	4%	3%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	4%	3%	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	3%	1%	<1%	3%	1%	1%	2%	2%	<.5%	2%	3%	<.5%	3%	3%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	3%
[VOL] Student loans	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	1%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%
[VOL] Other (specify)	6%	4%	8%	4%	8%	4%	7%	6%	9%	7%	2%	4%	7%	4%	6%	4%	7%	6%	4%	7%	6%	6%	6%	7%	6%	6%	9%	4%	7%	6%	9%	6%	7%	4%	4%	8%	7%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	8%	7%	8%	14%	9%	3%	7%	6%	13%	10%	11%	4%	10%	4%	7%	3%	14%	7%	9%	7%	8%	9%	8%	7%	5%	7%	20%	5%	6%	5%	20%	7%	4%	10%	7%	5%	15%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Which candidate do you think would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden, the Democrat	39%	31%	47%	40%	38%	34%	47%	36%	63%	40%	36%	49%	33%	50%	26%	47%	47%	39%	45%	33%	43%	55%	39%	28%	89%	3%	16%	95%	1%	28%	22%	85%	4%	36%	80%	2%	31%
Donald Trump, the Republican	50%	59%	43%	43%	51%	58%	46%	57%	19%	50%	39%	39%	57%	41%	68%	33%	37%	51%	46%	56%	44%	32%	49%	64%	4%	93%	26%	1%	96%	52%	34%	7%	94%	47%	11%	96%	46%
[VOL] Neither candidate	6%	6%	7%	11%	6%	6%	3%	5%	9%	6%	17%	8%	5%	6%	3%	14%	9%	4%	5%	7%	9%	7%	7%	5%	4%	2%	38%	1%	1%	13%	28%	4%	2%	10%	6%	2%	12%
[VOL] Someone else; specify	<1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	2%	<1%	0%	<.5%	1%	0%	1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	4%	<.5%	0%	3%	1%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<.5%	0%	1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	4%	4%	3%	6%	5%	2%	4%	2%	8%	3%	6%	3%	4%	2%	3%	6%	6%	5%	4%	4%	3%	6%	4%	3%	3%	2%	16%	3%	<1%	3%	16%	3%	<.5%	6%	2%	<1%	11%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Who do you think is most responsible for the Supreme Court ending the constitutional right to an abortion: Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden, a lot of responsibility	6%	5%	6%	3%	7%	5%	8%	6%	8%	5%	6%	3%	7%	2%	8%	6%	6%	6%	3%	6%	7%	4%	7%	5%	4%	7%	5%	4%	8%	7%	3%	6%	7%	5%	5%	8%	3%
Joe Biden, some responsibility	8%	7%	10%	17%	9%	5%	6%	7%	16%	12%	7%	4%	11%	4%	9%	6%	15%	10%	6%	9%	8%	13%	6%	8%	5%	11%	7%	5%	10%	11%	9%	6%	9%	9%	5%	8%	17%
Donald Trump, some responsibility	23%	26%	20%	31%	27%	23%	15%	23%	12%	24%	30%	21%	24%	22%	25%	19%	22%	27%	22%	25%	17%	14%	24%	27%	13%	32%	19%	11%	33%	27%	18%	14%	32%	21%	14%	33%	20%
Donald Trump, a lot of responsibility	43%	39%	47%	34%	37%	46%	52%	44%	52%	36%	38%	54%	37%	55%	36%	51%	40%	42%	50%	40%	43%	52%	42%	39%	72%	21%	35%	75%	20%	42%	34%	69%	24%	42%	69%	22%	34%
[VOL] Neither	7%	10%	5%	3%	7%	9%	8%	9%	4%	4%	7%	9%	6%	10%	8%	7%	4%	5%	7%	9%	8%	5%	7%	9%	1%	12%	10%	2%	12%	4%	10%	2%	12%	7%	2%	13%	6%
[VOL] Both	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	2%	0%	0%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	3%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	2%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	12%	12%	11%	10%	14%	12%	11%	11%	7%	19%	12%	9%	14%	7%	14%	11%	13%	9%	12%	11%	15%	11%	13%	12%	4%	17%	20%	3%	16%	9%	24%	4%	14%	15%	5%	15%	19%
NET Biden	14%	12%	16%	20%	16%	11%	13%	12%	23%	18%	13%	7%	18%	6%	17%	11%	21%	16%	9%	15%	15%	17%	14%	13%	9%	18%	13%	9%	18%	18%	12%	12%	17%	14%	10%	16%	20%
NET Trump	66%	65%	67%	66%	64%	69%	68%	67%	64%	60%	68%	75%	61%	77%	61%	71%	62%	69%	72%	64%	61%	66%	66%	66%	85%	53%	54%	86%	53%	69%	52%	82%	57%	64%	83%	55%	53%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Would you be more likely to describe electing Donald Trump as president this November as a safe choice for the country or a risky choice for the country?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Safe choice	41%	48%	36%	37%	39%	47%	40%	47%	16%	44%	30%	29%	49%	30%	58%	23%	33%	42%	34%	48%	37%	25%	39%	55%	2%	81%	6%	2%	90%	20%	13%	4%	87%	34%	6%	87%	32%
Risky choice	56%	50%	62%	61%	60%	51%	57%	52%	78%	52%	67%	70%	49%	69%	41%	74%	63%	57%	63%	48%	63%	73%	58%	43%	98%	18%	79%	98%	9%	78%	77%	95%	13%	64%	94%	12%	61%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	5%	4%	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	3%	5%	1%	2%	4%	<1%	2%	3%	2%	<.5%	1%	15%	<.5%	1%	2%	10%	1%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	7%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Would you be more likely to describe reelecting Joe Biden as president this November as a safe choice for the country or a risky choice for the country?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Safe choice	35%	31%	38%	26%	31%	34%	45%	31%	62%	29%	38%	44%	29%	44%	22%	47%	42%	38%	38%	30%	35%	44%	36%	26%	79%	3%	7%	87%	2%	20%	13%	75%	4%	32%	73%	3%	21%
Risky choice	63%	67%	60%	73%	67%	65%	53%	68%	33%	68%	58%	53%	70%	54%	77%	48%	55%	61%	60%	67%	63%	55%	61%	72%	19%	96%	80%	12%	97%	79%	77%	23%	96%	66%	25%	97%	75%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	5%	3%	3%	3%	2%	2%	1%	5%	3%	<1%	2%	3%	2%	1%	3%	2%	2%	<1%	13%	1%	<1%	<1%	10%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	<.5%	4%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Has Donald Trump ever said anything that you found offensive?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes, recently	37%	31%	42%	28%	34%	36%	47%	36%	50%	30%	40%	52%	28%	53%	25%	52%	35%	37%	42%	31%	42%	49%	38%	27%	72%	6%	48%	75%	5%	32%	40%	68%	7%	39%	69%	6%	29%
Yes, but not recently	31%	29%	32%	35%	36%	33%	20%	31%	24%	34%	32%	26%	33%	26%	35%	26%	31%	27%	30%	33%	30%	24%	33%	31%	19%	40%	31%	17%	37%	41%	37%	21%	33%	37%	20%	40%	37%
No	30%	37%	24%	34%	28%	29%	29%	31%	21%	33%	24%	19%	36%	19%	39%	18%	29%	35%	26%	32%	26%	23%	25%	40%	7%	53%	13%	5%	56%	25%	17%	9%	58%	22%	9%	53%	32%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	3%	3%	2%	2%	1%	2%	4%	2%	5%	3%	3%	2%	3%	2%	1%	3%	5%	2%	2%	4%	2%	4%	3%	2%	2%	2%	8%	2%	2%	2%	7%	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	3%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

How much do you think Donald Trump respects women?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
A lot	21%	25%	18%	15%	17%	26%	25%	27%	3%	13%	15%	17%	24%	18%	32%	13%	8%	24%	17%	24%	18%	13%	18%	31%	<.5%	42%	2%	<.5%	50%	4%	3%	<.5%	52%	13%	1%	52%	9%
Some	21%	24%	19%	33%	23%	19%	14%	21%	16%	27%	20%	15%	25%	16%	25%	12%	26%	21%	18%	24%	19%	17%	22%	23%	5%	35%	17%	4%	34%	21%	24%	8%	28%	29%	8%	32%	27%
Not much	14%	14%	15%	19%	18%	13%	11%	13%	19%	20%	11%	15%	14%	16%	12%	14%	17%	15%	15%	13%	16%	17%	16%	11%	17%	11%	22%	16%	8%	28%	19%	17%	10%	15%	17%	7%	22%
Not at all	38%	30%	45%	31%	37%	36%	46%	34%	57%	37%	46%	47%	33%	45%	27%	53%	45%	37%	44%	32%	43%	49%	39%	29%	77%	5%	43%	78%	2%	43%	41%	74%	3%	38%	73%	2%	33%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	5%	6%	4%	3%	6%	6%	4%	4%	5%	3%	7%	6%	4%	4%	4%	9%	3%	4%	5%	6%	4%	4%	5%	6%	<1%	6%	16%	<1%	7%	4%	12%	<.5%	7%	5%	<1%	7%	8%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that Donald Trump has or has not committed any serious federal crimes?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Donald Trump has committed serious federal crimes	54%	47%	61%	63%	60%	48%	53%	47%	80%	64%	66%	63%	49%	62%	37%	70%	71%	53%	60%	47%	61%	73%	56%	40%	95%	18%	67%	95%	12%	71%	65%	92%	14%	60%	92%	11%	60%
Donald Trump has not committed serious federal crimes	38%	47%	31%	27%	32%	46%	40%	47%	8%	25%	31%	31%	43%	33%	56%	23%	19%	43%	31%	44%	31%	22%	35%	53%	3%	74%	9%	3%	81%	20%	15%	5%	79%	32%	5%	81%	29%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	7%	6%	8%	10%	8%	6%	7%	6%	11%	11%	3%	6%	8%	5%	7%	7%	9%	4%	9%	8%	8%	6%	9%	6%	2%	8%	24%	2%	7%	9%	20%	4%	6%	9%	3%	8%	11%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

What comes closer to your view about Donald Trump's actions after the 2020 election?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
He was just exercising his right to contest the election	43%	50%	37%	40%	44%	48%	39%	49%	16%	43%	34%	31%	50%	34%	59%	24%	34%	43%	37%	50%	39%	26%	42%	57%	4%	82%	10%	2%	87%	31%	24%	6%	84%	39%	7%	87%	37%
He went so far that he threatened American democracy	51%	44%	57%	52%	49%	47%	56%	46%	77%	50%	55%	62%	44%	62%	36%	67%	59%	51%	57%	45%	53%	66%	52%	38%	94%	11%	67%	96%	7%	60%	60%	91%	10%	54%	90%	7%	52%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	6%	6%	6%	8%	7%	5%	5%	5%	6%	6%	11%	6%	6%	5%	5%	9%	7%	6%	6%	5%	8%	9%	6%	5%	2%	6%	22%	2%	6%	8%	16%	3%	6%	7%	3%	5%	11%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Thinking generally about all the criminal cases against Donald Trump, which comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
The charges against Donald Trump are mostly politically motivated.	48%	55%	42%	41%	48%	55%	45%	55%	26%	42%	34%	37%	55%	40%	65%	28%	36%	49%	42%	56%	40%	30%	44%	65%	7%	86%	29%	6%	90%	37%	37%	10%	87%	45%	9%	93%	43%
Donald Trump was charged mostly because prosecutors believed he committed crimes.	48%	42%	55%	52%	49%	43%	53%	44%	69%	54%	54%	60%	42%	58%	34%	66%	57%	48%	55%	40%	55%	66%	51%	34%	91%	11%	59%	92%	7%	63%	51%	88%	11%	51%	88%	5%	50%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	4%	3%	3%	7%	3%	3%	2%	2%	5%	4%	12%	4%	3%	2%	1%	7%	7%	2%	3%	4%	5%	4%	5%	2%	2%	3%	12%	2%	3%	<.5%	11%	2%	3%	4%	3%	2%	7%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

(If country headed in the wrong direction) In a previous question you said you thought things in the U.S. were headed in the wrong direction. Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Our problems are so bad that America is in danger of failing as a nation.	47%	48%	46%	50%	50%	52%	38%	50%	35%	41%	48%	41%	51%	40%	58%	43%	39%	46%	45%	51%	44%	45%	44%	53%	31%	61%	45%	27%	65%	43%	47%	30%	68%	43%	30%	67%	46%
Our problems are bad, but America is not in danger of failing as a nation anytime soon.	21%	21%	22%	26%	23%	19%	21%	23%	19%	21%	16%	22%	21%	24%	21%	18%	19%	24%	26%	21%	16%	18%	24%	21%	15%	25%	31%	15%	22%	32%	28%	16%	22%	25%	16%	23%	28%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	0%	1%	2%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	1%	2%	1%	1%	4%	2%	2%	<1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	<.5%
[PREVIOUSLY] Country is on the right track	21%	22%	21%	11%	17%	22%	30%	19%	31%	27%	23%	25%	19%	25%	14%	25%	29%	21%	22%	18%	25%	23%	23%	18%	41%	8%	5%	46%	7%	15%	7%	42%	4%	20%	41%	4%	13%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know/Refused	9%	8%	9%	12%	9%	5%	9%	7%	13%	11%	12%	10%	8%	9%	6%	12%	11%	7%	6%	8%	14%	12%	9%	6%	11%	5%	15%	11%	4%	10%	15%	10%	4%	10%	11%	4%	14%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

What single news source do you turn to most often?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
[VOL] Fox News	12%	14%	11%	7%	10%	12%	18%	16%	6%	5%	3%	8%	15%	10%	19%	3%	6%	11%	9%	15%	11%	9%	9%	18%	1%	23%	2%	1%	27%	3%	2%	2%	32%	5%	2%	27%	6%
[VOL] CNN	10%	9%	12%	12%	11%	9%	9%	9%	20%	8%	11%	9%	11%	8%	9%	12%	13%	10%	14%	12%	4%	12%	10%	9%	15%	6%	10%	13%	6%	14%	12%	17%	4%	11%	15%	5%	10%
[VOL] MSNBC	4%	5%	4%	<1%	<.5%	3%	10%	5%	8%	<.5%	2%	5%	4%	4%	5%	5%	3%	4%	3%	4%	5%	4%	6%	3%	9%	<1%	<1%	11%	<1%	<1%	<1%	11%	<1%	2%	9%	<1%	<1%
[VOL] Public Radio/NPR/PBS	3%	2%	4%	2%	5%	3%	2%	3%	4%	3%	4%	7%	<1%	7%	<.5%	8%	2%	4%	4%	2%	4%	5%	4%	2%	6%	<.5%	6%	7%	<.5%	3%	2%	8%	0%	2%	7%	<.5%	2%
[VOL] Talk radio/conservative personality	<1%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	2%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0%	2%	0%	0%	2%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	1%	<.5%	2%	<1%
[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC	11%	9%	12%	5%	4%	13%	18%	11%	11%	11%	9%	9%	12%	10%	12%	9%	10%	10%	14%	10%	10%	9%	12%	11%	16%	7%	8%	17%	6%	13%	8%	15%	7%	12%	16%	7%	8%
[VOL] Local broadcast news (includes non-talk, non-public local radio)	5%	3%	7%	2%	6%	7%	5%	5%	4%	7%	3%	6%	5%	6%	5%	5%	5%	6%	5%	5%	4%	5%	4%	6%	5%	5%	6%	5%	6%	3%	5%	5%	7%	4%	6%	6%	3%
[VOL] National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal	6%	6%	6%	7%	7%	5%	6%	7%	3%	2%	6%	12%	2%	14%	3%	8%	2%	4%	10%	5%	5%	7%	6%	5%	9%	4%	4%	11%	3%	4%	5%	9%	2%	8%	9%	3%	6%
[VOL] Local print or online news organizations	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%
[VOL] Social media	19%	20%	17%	44%	28%	11%	6%	15%	29%	34%	18%	17%	20%	14%	15%	23%	30%	18%	15%	19%	23%	22%	20%	15%	16%	21%	18%	13%	19%	32%	23%	14%	17%	23%	13%	16%	36%
[VOL] Friends and family	<1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	0%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<1%	0%	1%	<.5%	2%	0%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<1%	0%	2%	0%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	2%
[VOL] International news sources (such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian)	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	3%	3%	2%	<1%	4%	7%	4%	2%	5%	<1%	4%	4%	3%	2%	2%	4%	4%	3%	2%	4%	1%	3%	5%	1%	3%	3%	4%	<.5%	4%	4%	1%	3%
[VOL] Aggregation sites (such as Bing, Google, Yahoo News or Apple News)	3%	4%	3%	2%	6%	4%	1%	3%	2%	3%	8%	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%	5%	3%	5%	1%	5%	4%	4%	2%	3%	2%	10%	3%	1%	6%	8%	3%	2%	4%	4%	2%	4%
[VOL] Conservative news sites	2%	3%	1%	2%	1%	3%	1%	2%	1%	<1%	1%	2%	2%	3%	1%	<.5%	1%	3%	<1%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	3%	0%	4%	2%	0%	4%	<1%	1%	0%	3%	3%	<.5%	4%	<1%
[VOL] Newsmax	2%	2%	2%	0%	1%	3%	4%	3%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	3%	2%	4%	0%	1%	2%	2%	3%	3%	<.5%	2%	5%	<1%	4%	0%	<1%	5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	5%	2%	<.5%	6%	<1%
[VOL] Liberal news sites (Such as Mother Jones and Occupy Democrats)	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0%	1%	3%	1%	<1%	1%	<.5%	2%	1%	<1%	2%	<.5%	1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	2%	0%	1%	2%	0%	<1%	2%	2%	0%	<1%	2%	0%	<.5%
[VOL] Doesn’t consume news	3%	4%	2%	3%	4%	3%	<1%	3%	1%	2%	5%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	1%	4%	<1%	3%	9%	<1%	3%	2%	7%	<1%	3%	3%	1%	3%	4%
[VOL] Other (includes no preference and the internet)	9%	10%	9%	5%	7%	12%	9%	9%	3%	9%	16%	9%	10%	8%	10%	8%	9%	11%	7%	9%	9%	6%	10%	10%	8%	11%	7%	8%	10%	8%	10%	6%	12%	9%	8%	12%	6%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	4%	4%	3%	4%	2%	5%	4%	4%	3%	6%	2%	3%	5%	2%	5%	5%	3%	3%	2%	5%	5%	6%	3%	4%	2%	4%	10%	3%	4%	3%	9%	3%	3%	4%	2%	4%	7%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

And just a few more questions for demographic purposes... Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very liberal	9%	8%	9%	13%	10%	7%	8%	9%	4%	10%	15%	13%	6%	14%	5%	12%	8%	7%	11%	7%	11%	12%	9%	6%	18%	1%	9%	19%	<1%	9%	7%	20%	2%	5%	17%	2%	6%
Somewhat liberal	14%	9%	18%	19%	17%	12%	12%	12%	23%	16%	15%	16%	13%	15%	10%	18%	19%	13%	15%	13%	15%	21%	14%	9%	25%	5%	14%	24%	4%	18%	15%	30%	1%	12%	23%	3%	17%
Moderate	37%	38%	36%	39%	42%	34%	35%	36%	36%	36%	42%	44%	33%	44%	31%	41%	36%	35%	41%	33%	41%	34%	44%	30%	42%	32%	43%	40%	27%	58%	42%	34%	20%	54%	42%	24%	48%
Somewhat conservative	19%	23%	15%	15%	14%	20%	22%	20%	19%	19%	12%	12%	23%	13%	24%	12%	20%	19%	18%	20%	17%	14%	18%	23%	8%	29%	9%	9%	31%	10%	13%	10%	31%	15%	10%	31%	13%
Very conservative	16%	17%	15%	7%	11%	21%	19%	19%	8%	13%	9%	12%	18%	13%	22%	11%	9%	22%	9%	19%	11%	13%	11%	23%	4%	27%	8%	5%	32%	3%	7%	4%	39%	8%	4%	35%	7%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	6%	5%	6%	7%	6%	6%	4%	5%	10%	6%	6%	3%	7%	2%	7%	6%	8%	5%	5%	8%	4%	6%	4%	8%	3%	6%	18%	3%	6%	1%	16%	3%	6%	6%	3%	5%	9%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Under $25,000	12%	8%	16%	15%	11%	9%	14%	10%	18%	19%	11%	3%	17%	3%	15%	4%	22%	15%	8%	13%	11%	17%	10%	10%	13%	11%	12%	12%	12%	11%	12%	14%	11%	9%	11%	10%	19%
At least $25,000 but under $50,000	16%	14%	17%	20%	11%	13%	21%	14%	21%	21%	15%	7%	20%	7%	18%	6%	24%	17%	13%	17%	14%	14%	14%	19%	15%	16%	14%	15%	16%	15%	18%	17%	14%	16%	15%	17%	18%
At least $50,000 but under $100,000	27%	27%	27%	34%	26%	25%	29%	29%	25%	23%	24%	27%	28%	29%	29%	22%	25%	28%	26%	24%	32%	24%	27%	29%	29%	27%	23%	30%	26%	30%	24%	30%	25%	26%	28%	27%	24%
At least $100,000 but under $200,000	25%	29%	23%	15%	33%	30%	21%	28%	18%	25%	20%	33%	21%	33%	25%	35%	14%	26%	31%	22%	25%	23%	29%	24%	26%	25%	23%	27%	26%	27%	21%	24%	27%	28%	27%	27%	20%
$200,000 or more	12%	14%	11%	7%	15%	17%	7%	13%	6%	5%	22%	23%	6%	22%	7%	25%	4%	9%	13%	14%	11%	14%	13%	10%	11%	12%	14%	12%	12%	15%	12%	12%	12%	14%	15%	12%	9%
[VOL] Refused	8%	9%	6%	9%	5%	6%	8%	6%	12%	7%	8%	7%	8%	6%	6%	7%	10%	5%	9%	10%	7%	7%	8%	8%	5%	9%	14%	5%	9%	3%	14%	4%	11%	8%	5%	8%	10%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Catholic	17%	17%	17%	17%	15%	17%	19%	15%	7%	36%	16%	15%	18%	15%	15%	15%	23%	18%	23%	13%	15%	14%	20%	14%	16%	18%	13%	14%	19%	21%	12%	18%	18%	16%	16%	17%	19%
Protestant (Christian)	31%	29%	33%	27%	25%	30%	38%	33%	36%	23%	14%	29%	32%	30%	35%	26%	24%	31%	24%	37%	26%	24%	28%	38%	25%	37%	22%	26%	39%	28%	18%	27%	42%	26%	24%	40%	27%
Mormon (LDS)	2%	<1%	3%	<.5%	1%	3%	2%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	6%	2%	2%	1%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	3%	2%	<1%	3%	2%	2%	3%	<.5%
Jewish	2%	2%	2%	1%	5%	1%	2%	3%	<.5%	1%	1%	4%	1%	5%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	7%	1%	2%	4%	3%	<1%	4%	2%	<1%	4%	1%	2%	3%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	2%
Muslim	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	2%	0%	5%	1%	<.5%	0%	0%	5%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	2%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	5%	<.5%	0%	0%	4%	<.5%	0%	2%	<1%	<1%	1%
[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)	12%	11%	12%	8%	7%	19%	10%	11%	26%	8%	7%	9%	14%	8%	13%	11%	16%	15%	5%	16%	8%	10%	10%	15%	10%	14%	7%	9%	15%	12%	8%	10%	17%	9%	10%	17%	6%
[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%
Some other religion (specify)	2%	2%	2%	<1%	5%	2%	1%	1%	3%	<.5%	10%	4%	1%	2%	1%	8%	2%	1%	2%	3%	2%	3%	3%	1%	3%	1%	4%	3%	2%	1%	4%	2%	<1%	2%	3%	1%	2%
No religious affiliation	31%	34%	29%	43%	39%	26%	24%	32%	24%	27%	43%	33%	30%	35%	30%	30%	31%	29%	37%	25%	39%	39%	31%	27%	40%	21%	44%	41%	17%	32%	48%	38%	14%	37%	40%	17%	39%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	4%	2%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	4%	1%	2%	3%	3%	1%	3%	2%	1%	4%	<.5%	2%	<1%	2%	3%	1%	3%	3%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes	26%	24%	28%	19%	21%	32%	29%	27%	35%	23%	13%	21%	30%	20%	33%	23%	25%	31%	13%	34%	22%	18%	22%	37%	18%	35%	19%	18%	39%	20%	16%	19%	41%	22%	18%	39%	22%
No	20%	19%	22%	19%	18%	21%	23%	20%	31%	10%	18%	24%	19%	24%	18%	24%	18%	21%	18%	21%	21%	20%	22%	19%	22%	19%	20%	23%	18%	26%	15%	22%	21%	19%	22%	21%	15%
[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused	52%	55%	48%	60%	60%	45%	47%	51%	31%	67%	67%	54%	50%	55%	48%	53%	54%	48%	67%	43%	56%	59%	55%	43%	59%	45%	58%	58%	42%	52%	66%	58%	36%	58%	58%	39%	62%
[VOL] Refused	2%	2%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	3%	<.5%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	<.5%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	2%	3%	1%	2%	1%	2%	3%	<1%	2%	2%	3%	1%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	<1%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

(If independent, another party or not sure) And as of today, do you lean more toward:
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
The Democratic Party	39%	36%	41%	52%	35%	28%	51%	40%	52%	39%	28%	45%	35%	50%	33%	38%	40%	38%	44%	37%	36%	51%	38%	31%	92%	9%	22%	92%	6%	35%	32%	-	-	41%	74%	3%	33%
The Republican Party	42%	42%	42%	32%	50%	46%	34%	45%	17%	46%	37%	36%	45%	38%	50%	32%	36%	41%	40%	43%	41%	28%	43%	49%	2%	79%	18%	2%	83%	40%	27%	-	-	43%	12%	86%	38%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	20%	22%	17%	16%	16%	25%	15%	15%	31%	14%	35%	19%	20%	13%	17%	30%	25%	21%	17%	20%	23%	21%	19%	20%	6%	12%	60%	6%	11%	25%	41%	-	-	16%	14%	11%	29%
Number of respondents	532	285	240	98	143	180	96	354	44	60	50	281	249	200	153	66	88	111	110	191	120	116	246	170	198	238	96	152	164	87	129			420	202	138	143
Percentage of total electorate	100%	54%	45%	20%	27%	32%	18%	63%	9%	12%	11%	39%	60%	27%	36%	10%	22%	20%	21%	36%	22%	23%	45%	32%	33%	47%	20%	24%	33%	17%	26%			78%	33%	26%	32%

Combined: Party identification and leaners
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
The Democratic Party	45%	36%	52%	53%	45%	35%	51%	40%	75%	47%	44%	53%	40%	52%	31%	56%	56%	43%	51%	39%	49%	61%	45%	33%	95%	6%	28%	96%	4%	43%	39%	100%	0%	41%	86%	4%	39%
The Republican Party	47%	54%	41%	39%	47%	54%	45%	54%	14%	46%	38%	39%	52%	42%	62%	31%	33%	49%	41%	52%	42%	30%	47%	58%	3%	89%	21%	3%	92%	39%	29%	0%	100%	43%	9%	93%	41%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	9%	10%	6%	9%	8%	11%	4%	6%	11%	6%	18%	8%	8%	6%	7%	13%	11%	9%	7%	9%	9%	9%	9%	8%	2%	5%	51%	2%	4%	17%	32%	0%	0%	16%	5%	3%	20%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity				Bildung		Race/Education				Region				Neighborhood Type			2024 Vote (Head to Head)			2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)				Party ID			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Non-white, college	Non-white, no college	Midwest	North-East	South	West	City	Suburb	Rural/ Small Town	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes	36%	41%	31%	27%	38%	43%	30%	36%	34%	25%	44%	43%	32%	42%	32%	44%	30%	36%	37%	35%	34%	35%	38%	34%	38%	33%	37%	39%	33%	33%	37%	35%	32%	36%	40%	35%	25%
No	64%	59%	69%	73%	62%	57%	70%	64%	66%	75%	56%	57%	68%	58%	68%	56%	70%	64%	63%	65%	66%	65%	62%	66%	62%	67%	63%	61%	67%	67%	63%	65%	68%	64%	60%	65%	75%
Number of respondents	1,235	580	641	198	285	419	301	834	135	132	100	629	598	447	384	161	202	259	257	444	275	300	536	399	549	569	117	468	467	127	173	364	339	420	544	426	207
Percentage of total electorate	100%	48%	51%	16%	24%	31%	26%	65%	12%	11%	9%	37%	62%	26%	39%	10%	21%	21%	20%	35%	23%	24%	42%	35%	41%	49%	10%	34%	41%	11%	14%	28%	29%	33%	40%	36%	19%

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents.

Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither are available, it is as reported on the voter file.

Neighborhood type is a New York Times classification based on each voter’s address. Voters within a metropolitan area’s central city are classified as living in a city. Voters living in a metropolitan area but outside the central city are considered suburban if they live in a census-designated urban area. All other voters — those living in nonmetropolitan areas, and those living in non-urbanized parts of metropolitan areas outside the central city — are classified as living in small towns or rural areas.

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about this Times/Siena poll:

• We spoke with 1,532 registered voters from June 28 to July 2, 2024.

• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 93 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed more than 190,000 calls to more than 113,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,532 registered voters nationwide, including 1,235 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from June 28 to July 2, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for the likely electorate. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for the likely electorate.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state, telephone number quality and other demographic and political characteristics. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records, divided by the national sum of the weights.

Fielding

The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida, the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 93 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 10 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 14 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available, or else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• National region (NYT classifications by state)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Metropolitan status (2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

• Census tract educational attainment

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.22 for registered voters and 1.33 for the likely electorate. The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.28 for registered voters and 1.37 for the likely electorate.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

Composition of the Sample

Group	Unweighted All R.V.s	Weighted All R.V.s	Weighted Likely Electorate	N
Gender
Men	48%	48%	47%	731
Women	51	51	52	786
Age
18 to 29	16%	16%	12%	249
30 to 44	23	23	21	346
45 to 64	33	31	33	503
65 and older	25	26	30	386
Bildung
High school	16%	31%	28%	252
Some college	33	31	30	512
College	27	23	25	409
Post-graduate	23	15	16	346
Home Ownership (L2 Model)
Likely renter	25%	27%	23%	387
Likely homeowner	45	45	51	694
Unknown	29	28	26	451
Marital Status (L2 Model)
Married	33%	33%	39%	511
Nontraditional	9	8	9	143
Unknown	57	59	52	878
Party (Self-Reported)
Democrat	28%	28%	29%	436
Republican	27	28	31	410
Independent	32	32	29	495
Party (Based on L2 Data)
Democrat	33%	33%	36%	506
Republican	29	29	34	447
Other	38	37	30	579
Race (L2 Model)
White	65%	63%	66%	994
Hispanic	12	12	10	187
Black	10	10	9	151
Asian	2	3	3	30
Other	3	4	4	44
Race (L2 Model)
White	65%	63%	66%	994
Nonwhite	27	29	25	413
National Region
Midwest	21%	21%	21%	329
Northeast	20	20	20	304
South	36	35	35	558
West	22	23	23	341
Turnout History (Based on L2 Data)
Voted in last midterm and in a primary	43%	41%	53%	653
Voted in last two midterms	24	22	24	365
Voted in last general, no midterm	13	13	11	203
Did not vote in last general or midterm	12	14	5	178
New registrant	9	10	7	133