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Europe lurches right

Greetings from Brussels, where the city is abuzz with the fallout from last night’s European election results. I’m Suzanne Lynch, bringing you today’s Global Playbook from the de facto European Union capital before packing my bags for Italy to cover the G7 summit later this week.

The other election: Of course the European Parliament election is not the only high-stakes contest in Europe this weekend. Regular Global Playbook readers will remember that there was the small matter of a referendum in the town of Davos this weekend. Some 6,483 residents of the Swiss town exercised their democratic right and backed new rules dictating who can rent out space in the town during the World Economic Forum.

Davos clamp down: The vote has sent many Davos regulars scrambling to see if they’re hit by the changes. More on the threat to the Davos gravy train below … but first, here is where things stand in Europe as the results of the 2024 European Parliament election roll in.

EUROPE SHIFTS RIGHT

VOTERS TURN RIGHT: For once, the polls broadly held true. Europe is coming to terms this morning with a surge in support for far-right parties and a backlash against governing centrists, led by the continent’s biggest countries — France and Germany. The euro is down in morning trade, and European stock markets have taken a hit as the economic world remains on edge.

Quelle surprise! French President Emmanuel Macron had barely waved United States President Joe Biden onto Air Force One after a state visit when he announced to a stunned nation his intention to dissolve the national assembly and hold fresh elections, after his party was trounced by far-right National Rally (RN).

Doing a Sanchez: Macron has taken a leaf from the book of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who called a snap election after dire national results last year — and won. Whether Macron can pull off a similar feat remains to be seen. Marine Le Pen’s RN — fronted by rightwing wunderkind Jordan Bardella — romped home with 32 percent of the vote, double that of Macron’s party.

Going for broke: The French president is now essentially calling the French electorate’s bluff — asking voters if they’re prepared to back Le Pen’s party in a national election. Though the RN is stronger than ever, it may not perform as well in more high-stakes legislative elections which operate via a different voting system. Macron’s bet is to take the wind out of the RN sails ahead of French general elections in 2027. If it backfires, France could have Prime Minister Bardella (or Le Pen) in situ just in time for the Olympics this summer.

Eating humble pie: While Macron stole the limelight at a packed European Parliament in Brussels last night where close to a thousand journalists had crammed in to cover the election, his government was not the only one that suffered a drubbing. The center-left Social Democratic Party of Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Sholz finished third, behind the far-right Alternative for Germany, with his two coalition partners also performing dismally.

Orbán takes a hit: Europe’s longest-serving leader, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, also received a political black eye, with his Fidesz party on track to lose some seats in the European Parliament after young gun Péter Magyar, a former Orbán ally-turned-rival, romped home with 30 percent of the vote.

All smiles: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, for her part, had a good night. Her center-right European People’s Party (EPP) gained seats, leaving her in pole position in negotiations that will now ramp up over who will occupy the EU’s top jobs for the coming term. Von der Leyen is her political group’s lead candidate and seeks another five years at the post.

Numbers game: But while von der Leyen can now argue she has a mandate, given how the EPP again emerged as the strongest group, she needs the backing of all 27 EU leaders, along with the magic number of 361 MEPs — a majority in the now 720-strong parliament. Although the EPP grew in number, it is unclear if she has the full support of all members of allied groups.

Power of right: This is one potential place where the newfound power of right-wing parties could come into play. Von der Leyen may need the support of parties to the right of the EPP, with all eyes on Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy who topped the polls and could act as kingmakers of sorts in the European Parliament.

Why it matters: Nationalist, right-leaning euroskeptic parties, which will hold almost a quarter of seats in this Parliament according to projections, will look for concessions in exchange for support if von der Leyen needs them. They will also wield new power in the Parliament, where their enhanced numbers will give them claim to important roles like committee chairs. They’re also likely to want to roll back the bloc’s progressive climate policies and take a tougher stance on migration. In short: the rightward shift in the European Parliament will translate into a more right-leaning EU.

Greenlash: The other losers last night were the Greens, who lost a quarter of their support compared to the last European election five years ago. Back then, Greta Thunberg-backed pro-climate fervor was at its peak and challenges like the war in Ukraine and its accompanying energy crisis were not even a twinkle in the eye of voters.

What happens next: Political leaders in the European Parliament are already meeting today as they begin thrashing out their possible support for a coalition arrangement. Expect phone calls between national capitals to begin as von der Leyen susses out support for her candidacy and names are bandied about for other top EU posts, like European Council president. The race for the top jobs is also likely to dominate chatter at the G7 summit in Italy, which kicks off Thursday. Global Playbook will be in your inbox Thursday morning to bring you up to speed.

THE PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN

DAVOS CLAMP DOWN: It’s a tiny town in a remote region of Switzerland that is best known as the location for an annual gathering of global decision-makers. But more than half a century after the World Economic Forum put Davos on the map, the residents of the Swiss ski town have said: Enough is enough.

Referendum: Voters in Davos backed a proposal by the local council for new rules around the construction of temporary buildings during the World Economic Forum. Crucially, this includes imposing new rules on who can rent premises during the weeklong event.

Details: As POLITICO previously reported, the decision could sound the death knell for many businesses and hangers-on, from Artificial Intelligence companies to crypto startups, which have set up shop along the central promenade of Davos in recent years. Under the new rules, local residents and businesses can only let their spaces to paid-up members of the Davos crowd and official delegates — an effort by the local council to clamp down on hoards of visitors who descend on the town each year.

Freeloaders vs. free country: The move is a victory for the World Economic Forum, the organization founded by Klaus Schwab, which has been trying to clamp down on what it views as freeloaders to its annual meeting in Davos. Deep-pocketed corporations pay up to 600,000 Swiss francs (around €606,000) for the privilege of an annual WEF membership, which buys a certain number of badges — but an increasing number of people have been making the trip to the Magic Mountain for some off-piste fun without ever setting foot in the conference center halls.

Official response: “We welcome that the municipality has now more tools available to take measures for a safe and smoother execution of the annual meeting for all citizens and visitors,” a WEF spokesman told POLITICO on Monday. “We look forward to a continued close cooperation with all institutions in Davos.”

The show must go on: News that 86-year-old Schwab is stepping down from day-to-day management of the forum may have made waves in the world of the Davos set, but it represents very little change in practice. Schwab will take up a non-exec role from January, and the question of who will ultimately replace him remains unanswered.

AROUND THE WORLD

NETANYAHU’S POLITICAL HEADACHE: It didn’t take long for the jubilation in Israel over the rescue of four Israeli hostages to be overtaken by real-world politics over the weekend, as Benny Gantz resigned from the country’s war cabinet. While Gantz’s departure creates no immediate threat to Netanyahu’s leadership, it means Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will have to rely more on right-wing factions of his government.

THE CHASTENING (OR NOT) OF NARENDRA MODI: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held his first cabinet meeting today following his reelection as India’s leader for the third time. Despite the BJP losing its overall majority in the weekslong elections, Modi presided over a grand ceremony at the presidential palace in Delhi Sunday. This was attended by actors, celebrities and world leaders from the region who flew in for the occasion — all slickly packaged for Modi’s tens of millions of social media followers.

TIT-FOR-TAT ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA: North Korea has been quietly needling its southern neighbors in recent weeks, sending trash-filled balloons across the demilitarized zone that separates the two countries. This, it says, is in retaliation for activists sending anti-regime leaflets across the border. South Korea has had enough. Seoul says it will re-start broadcasts from the border piping pro-democracy and capitalist messages north — the first time since 2018.

SHEDDING A TEAR: The weekend elections took one political casualty, though it wasn’t a direct result of the European election. Belgium also held national elections Sunday, which saw the liberal party of Prime Minister Alexander de Croo finish 9th place, prompting his resignation. Right-wing Flemish nationalist party NVA got the most votes, beating the even more right-wing party Vlaams Belang. De Croo, who wiped away tears as he made his announcement, will remain as caretaker prime minister. He could be in for the long-haul: Last time around, it took Belgium more than 500 days to form a government.

PROGRAMMING NOTE

— Global Playbook will be coming to you from the G7 summit in Bari on Thursday, Friday and Saturday morning.

Thanks to: editor Sonya Diehn.