Sources For Capstone Project
Sources For Capstone Project
Works Cited
Albert, Jim. "A Batting Average: Does It Represent Ability or Luck?" Bowling Green State
11 Feb. 2020. This article focuses on the fact that batting average is a very poor statistic
for evaluating how good a hitter is due to the fact the average can be affected by hits. Hits
can happen in a variety of situations and a hit for one batter may not be a hit for a
different batter due to how the fielders are in position, the speed at which the ball is hit,
etc. Understanding that there are better statistics to evaluate hitters on such as strikeout
rate, walk rate, in-play home run rate, etc. allows us to better understand who is actually
the better player because these statistics have a much higher correlation to the hitter's
This source is useful for my project as it allows me to prove that not all statistics are
created equal and that you can manipulate and hide data behind poorly created statistics.
Batting average has always been a poor indicator of hitter performance because there are
something that can happen to the ball once it is in play that is not affected by the hitter.
Understanding that there are better categories that can provide the information you are
looking for is the main focus of my project and this article helps back up that perfectly.
Barry, Daniel, and J. A. Hartigan. "Choice Models for Predicting Divisional Winners in Major
League Baseball." Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 88, no. 423,
Baumer, Benjamin S., Shane T. Jensen and Gregory J. Matthews. "openWAR: An open source
system for evaluating overall player performance in major league baseball" Journal of
2
Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 11.2 (2015): 69-84. Retrieved 11 Feb. 2020, from
doi:10.1515/jqas-2014-0098
Baumer, Ben, and Andrew Zimbalist. "Quantifying Market Inefficiencies in the Baseball Players'
Market." Eastern Economic Journal, vol. 40, no. 4, 2014, pp. 488-98,
which statistics were overvalued and undervalued and evaluates 3 skills (eye, bat, and
power) and sees how they translate into a team's winning percentage. The article also
creates definitions for those statistics that deviate from the standard baseball statistics.
With those statistics, it models labor valuation and shows how it varies by year what
statistics were overvalued and undervalued. The article comes to the conclusion that even
though some statistics may have initially overvalued after Moneyball, they have returned
to their normal rate at this point. There was also no evidence that more payroll spending
approach baseball statistics and what they do with it. It also gives a glimpse into seeing
Finally, it shows how applying different statistics can affect data and why it is important
Bennett, Jay M., and John A. Flueck. "An Evaluation of Major League Baseball Offensive
Performance Models." The American Statistician, vol. 37, no. 1, 1983, pp. 76-82. JSTOR,
Demmink, Herman. "Value of Stealing Bases in Major League Baseball: 'Stealing' Runs and
Wins." Public Choice, vol. 142, no. 3/4, 2010, pp. 497-505. JSTOR,
stolen base in baseball and seeing if it increases the chance of winning a baseball game.
Using statistical analysis and the fact that 66% of stolen base attempts between 1990 and
2004 were successful and it was concluded that attempting to steal bases was worth the
risk of potentially getting caught. The article also made a correlation with on-base
percentage. The article also commented on the fact as a team wins more, it is likely to get
The article is extremely helpful with my research due to it applying baseball statistics but
also keeping it very simple. It stuck to the more basic principles of economics and
statistics and because of that, it was easier to follow the method and understand what the
author was trying to do. It gives me a better understanding of the value of certain
Guthrie, Donald. "Statistics in Sports." Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 89,
2020.
Mirsky, Steve. "Numbers Game." Scientific American, vol. 310, no. 4, 2014, pp. 88-89. JSTOR,
statistics along with the fact that they can be deceiving. While we have statistics that can
compose almost everything in the sport of baseball, we still don't have perfect statistics.
One great example is UZR where Derek Jeter was in the top 10% one year and the
4
bottom 10% the next year. Because there is very little correlation there is not much you
can take away from it and with that, you need to improve the statistics to provide more
relevant information.
This article is helpful for my project because it shows statistics can not always give the
best information and can sometimes allow you to make the wrong conclusions if you
don't have the proper statistical categories. It also incorporates sabermetrics into its
discussion and allows for me to get a better understanding of the general thinking that
Phillips, Christopher J. "Keeping Score." Cabinet, no. 56, Winter 2014-2015, pp. 73-79.
Christopher J Phillips,
www.christopherjphillips.com/application/files/6814/7774/5334/PhillipsCJ_KeepingScor
e_Cabinet_56_2015.pdf. Accessed 11 Feb. 2020. This article mostly talks about the
beginning of stat keeping in baseball and why it is relevant. Baseball in its infancy in the
mid-1800s did not have much official stat keeping and most times was played
recreationally. As time went on, stat keeping became much more important as Henry
Chadwick promoted it and encouraged official stat keeping for official professional
baseball games. He also encouraged teams to hire their own stat keeps so that they could
evaluate their players and understand how they were performing. Chadwick paved the
way for modern-day stat keeping and is a major hand is why there are historical baseball
statistics that can date all the way back to the 1890s and also why know how the game
works today,
5
This source is helpful towards my project as it allows me to understand how baseball stat
keeping first started and with that how certain statistics first came into existence.
Chadwick is one of the people who came up with the concept of the error and probably
defined what it is and isn't and could explain why the definition for an error is so
evaluate and modify it as you understand how people first intended for it to work and that