1

Nicholas Tomlinson

Allison Bocchino

Writing 2

10 June 2024

How Do Statistics and History Discuss Major League Baseball?

The sport of baseball is subject to a lineup of academic disciplines, including the double

play of statistics and history. Although both of these disciplines offer discourse about the sport

widely known as America’s pastime, the makeup and details are very different. The article titled

“The Quality of Pitches in Major League Baseball'' by Philippa Swartz, Mike Grosskopf, Derek

Bingham, and Tim B. Swartz showcases a perspective centered around data analytics and

statistical analysis. The article titled “Major League Baseball Labour Conflict and the

Popularization of Fantasy Baseball'' by Andrew J. Ploeg exhibits an alternate perspective,

focusing on historical events and how they increased fan involvement with MLB through fantasy

sports. These articles contrast the writing conventions of statistical and historical disciplines in

their respective scholarly or discourse communities as such: the statistical article utilizes a

mathematical and scientific-based method, a systematic structure, and appeals to a very specific

audience, while the historical article incorporates a more broad-based method of argumentation

and evidence, a chronological structure, and is targeted towards a wider audience.

“The Quality of Pitches in Major League Baseball” argues for a quantitative approach to

evaluate pitch quality in MLB through numerical statistics. For example, the abstract of the

article states that the report is “based on approximately 2.2 million pitches taken from the 2013,

2014, and 2015 MLB seasons,” and that “the quality of a particular pitch is evaluated as the
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expected number of bases conceded.”1 The argument is built upon machine learning algorithms,

known for their ability to handle complex datasets and uncover trends that escape the reach of

traditional analysis. One of these is PITCHf/x, which provides detailed information on pitches

thrown in MLB resulting in “a matrix comprised of 2,170,035 observations (pitches) and 74

corresponding variables which describe aspects of the pitch…”2 Evidence was also gathered with

random forest technology incorporated to produce statistics on the expected number of total

bases given up by a future pitch.3 They provide data to create ratings for one pitch over another,

and ultimately develop a final list about which pitches are the most effective in baseball. All of

the evidence gathered for this article comes in the form of datasets and models, and appeals to

discourse communities centered around the application of machine learning and statistics to

sports. These discourse communities are very keen on the analytical, logical approach

represented in the article. The nature of the article’s argument and the style of supporting

evidence is typical for the statistical discipline and stands in contrast to the historical approach.

The “Major League Baseball Labour Conflict and the Popularization of Fantasy

Baseball” historical article argues that labor disputes in MLB, rather than the influence of the

internet, were the main reason for shaping fan behavior and the rise of fantasy baseball in the

‘80s and ‘90s. The argument draws on historical analysis, cultural interpretation, and a narrative

of evolving fan engagement. It accomplishes its goal with a multitude of evidence surrounding

the 1981 MLB strike, 1990 MLB Holdout, and 1994 MLB strike, explaining how the conflicts

ultimately played a vital role in shifting fan mentality and popularizing fantasy baseball. In each

section, the article describes an overall historical event and follows by providing an analysis of
1
Swartz, Grosskopf, Bingham, Swartz, “The Quality of Pitches In Major League Baseball,” 148.
2
Swartz et al., “The Quality of Pitches,” 149.
3
Swartz et al., “The Quality of Pitches,” 149.
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how these events led to fan engagement with fantasy baseball. For instance, the author explains

that the 1981 strike brought about “the conditions of possibility for the popularization of a new

expression of fandom in the modern sports world. Ironically, it was in part the belief — allegedly

confirmed by the strike — that the players live in their own ‘fantasy’ world that prompted many

fans to choose to do the same.”4 The scholar creates a convincing argument by contending that

the shifts in fan behavior can be connected to the era of free agency, which ultimately

contributed to the rise of fantasy sports as a major cultural and commercial force. This broader

technique of explaining an event through historical contexts and trends encompasses a very

different method of providing an argument, evidence, and analysis than in the statistics-based

article, supporting discourse communities centered around the more general ideas of fan culture,

labor relations, and the growth of media phenomena like fantasy sports. Members of these

discourse communities thrive by gathering their information from various sources, often

including critiques written by other scholars. For example, the article cites Law professor Marc

Edelman who argues that “by the early 1990s, America was already in the midst of a growing

fantasy sports revolution, featuring ‘[fantasy] magazines, season guides, radio shows, statistical

services, management groups, sportswear and newsletters’, even though very few people had

access to the internet.”5 The distinctions between articles written under the umbrella of statistics

or history and discourse communities are not limited to argumentation and evidence, as their

overall layout and structure adhere to customary variations as well.

The structure of “The Quality of Pitches in Major League Baseball” is presented with

straightforward sections that are mapped out in a way that resembles the general statistical

4
Ploeg, “Major League Baseball Labour Conflict and the Popularization of Fantasy Baseball,” 1390.
5
Ploeg, “Major League Baseball Labour,” 1387.
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discipline, with the abstract and introduction serving as a means of background information and

organization for the study followed by areas describing data, methodology, and applications.

Additionally, the consistent use of heatmaps and other graphics provides visual interpretations of

the complex data, making the results more accessible to the reader. This type of structure

involving frequent graphs and other visualizations is common among statistics and the discourse

communities to which it appeals. Following the introduction, the sections and their titles in order

are: “Data,” which includes the statistics from PITCH/x,6 “Approach,” which includes a

statistical model of various pitch qualities,7 “Estimation of Expected Bases” and its subsections

“Estimation of a(C) and b(C)” and “Estimation of E(TCD) using Random Forests” which

incorporates random forest technology to predict the total bases given up by a pitch,8

“Applications” and its subsections “Change in Pitching Performance Throughout a Game,”

“Heatmaps based on pitch location, and Evaluation of Pitchers,”9 and “Discussion” which is the

conclusion to the article.10 Traditional for articles within the statistical discipline, this

top-to-bottom approach begins with an overlook, transitions to a display and description of data,

and finishes with an analysis and explanation of the research project.

On the contrary, the “Major League Baseball Labour Conflict and the Popularization of

Fantasy Baseball” article follows a structure attributed to the discipline of history and the

discourse communities of sports history and fantasy baseball. It resembles the historical narrative

structure, adhering to a chronological presentation of the transformation of fan experiences as a

6
Swartz et al., “The Quality of Pitches,” 149.
7
Swartz et al., “The Quality of Pitches,” 149.
8
Swartz et al., “The Quality of Pitches,” 150-152.
9
Swartz et al., “The Quality of Pitches,” 152-154.
10
Swartz et al., “The Quality of Pitches,” 154.
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result of pivotal labor conflicts. Following the overview provided in the abstract and

introduction, multiple subheadings split up the article into sections, with their titles and order

being: “The Strike That Split A Season” which covers the beginning of the strike of 1981,11 “The

Green, Green Grass (Roots) of Roto” which expands on the fallout of the strike of 1981,12 “The

Lockout That Freed The Fans” which examines the strike of 1985,13 “The Strike That Spurred A

Revolution” which discusses the strike of 1994,14 “The Revolution Will Be Fantasized” which

slightly expands on the strike of 1994 while covering the influence of fans on the sport,15 and

“The Long Road from Rotisserie to Fantasy” which serves as a conclusion to the article, restating

some of the major claims made about the effect of the labor conflicts on fantasy sport.16 The

structure of this article compared to its statistical counterpart is evidence of a divide between the

disciplines and discourse communities. Rather than an emphasis on data, images, and scientific

reasoning, the structure of the historical article lacks any sort of visual element and instead

follows a chronological organization. This type of organization and a breakdown of a few key

events is what gives the historical discipline and its discourse communities an identifying factor,

whereas a systematic and numerical approach is aligned with the discipline and discourse

communities of statistics.

Beyond the differences in structure, the articles exhibit a clear distinction in the target

audience, jargon, and tone. The target audience of the statistics-based article is statisticians,

11
Ploeg, “Major League Baseball Labour,” 1388-1390.
12
Ploeg, “Major League Baseball Labour,” 1390-1392.
13
Ploeg, “Major League Baseball Labour,” 1393-1394.
14
Ploeg, “Major League Baseball Labour,” 1394-1396.
15
Ploeg, “Major League Baseball Labour,” 1396-1399.
16
Ploeg, “Major League Baseball Labour,” 1399-1400.
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sports analysts, and possibly MLB team strategists. Additionally, it appeals to discourse

communities which include members knowledgeable about machine learning and its

applications. The tone is very technical and scientific, with statistical terminology and complex

analytical techniques. Each of these aspects is embodied in the “Discussion” section of the

article, which includes remarks like, “Although baseball analytics (also known as sabermetrics)

has been active for a long time, PITCHf/x technology has now brought big data to the forefront.

In this article, we have used machine learning techniques on a massive dataset to learn about the

quality of pitches.”17 This scientific nature contrasts with the other article, which appeals to a

broader audience of historians, sociologists, and those interested in the cultural aspects of sports.

While the first article intertwines baseball with technology, the second article suggests a new

way to view the popularization of fantasy sports, challenging the predominant technological

narrative. The language and tone in this article are much more accessible as well, and unlike the

first article require little knowledge of specific jargon to understand the message.

The analysis of these two scholarly articles on baseball demonstrates the breadth and

depth of academic engagement with the sport. Additionally, each of these articles exemplifies the

varying methodologies and frameworks through which disciplines and discourse communities

contribute to the understanding of baseball. The two articles showcase the distinct differences in

argumentation, evidence, structure, and target audience which give the disciplines of statistics

and history their ultimate makeup. On their own, the articles may be lacking a truly homerun

view of America’s pastime. Still, taken together, they highlight the interplay between statistical

research and historical studies, providing a more complete rundown of Major League Baseball.

17
Swartz et al., “The Quality of Pitches,” 154.
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Works Cited

1. ​Swartz, Philippa, Mike Grosskopf, Derek Bingham, and Tim B. Swartz. “The Quality of

Pitches in Major League Baseball.” The American statistician 71, no. 2 (2017): 148–154.

2. Ploeg, Andrew J. “Major League Baseball Labour Conflict and the Popularization of

Fantasy Baseball.” International journal of the history of sport40, no. 15 (2024):

1386–1405.